U.S. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Russian President Putin, where a short-term Ukraine ceasefire tied to May 9 Victory Day was discussed, highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts but failed to yield commitments for a comprehensive halt, reinforcing trader skepticism at 74.5% odds against a full ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Recent Orthodox Easter truce attempts collapsed amid mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, while Russian forces claimed full Luhansk control on April 4 amid slow eastern advances. Earlier Geneva talks ended without breakthrough in February, paused partly over Iran tensions, as Moscow insists on Donbas control and Kyiv rejects concessions, with sustained frontline fighting and no major de-escalation signals driving the "wisdom of crowds" toward prolonged conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.U.S. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Russian President Putin, where a short-term Ukraine ceasefire tied to May 9 Victory Day was discussed, highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts but failed to yield commitments for a comprehensive halt, reinforcing trader skepticism at 74.5% odds against a full ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Recent Orthodox Easter truce attempts collapsed amid mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, while Russian forces claimed full Luhansk control on April 4 amid slow eastern advances. Earlier Geneva talks ended without breakthrough in February, paused partly over Iran tensions, as Moscow insists on Donbas control and Kyiv rejects concessions, with sustained frontline fighting and no major de-escalation signals driving the "wisdom of crowds" toward prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,502,614End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.U.S. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Russian President Putin, where a short-term Ukraine ceasefire tied to May 9 Victory Day was discussed, highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts but failed to yield commitments for a comprehensive halt, reinforcing trader skepticism at 74.5% odds against a full ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Recent Orthodox Easter truce attempts collapsed amid mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, while Russian forces claimed full Luhansk control on April 4 amid slow eastern advances. Earlier Geneva talks ended without breakthrough in February, paused partly over Iran tensions, as Moscow insists on Donbas control and Kyiv rejects concessions, with sustained frontline fighting and no major de-escalation signals driving the "wisdom of crowds" toward prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$14,502,614End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
U.S. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Russian President Putin, where a short-term Ukraine ceasefire tied to May 9 Victory Day was discussed, highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts but failed to yield commitments for a comprehensive halt, reinforcing trader skepticism at 74.5% odds against a full ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Recent Orthodox Easter truce attempts collapsed amid mutual accusations of hundreds of violations, while Russian forces claimed full Luhansk control on April 4 amid slow eastern advances. Earlier Geneva talks ended without breakthrough in February, paused partly over Iran tensions, as Moscow insists on Donbas control and Kyiv rejects concessions, with sustained frontline fighting and no major de-escalation signals driving the "wisdom of crowds" toward prolonged conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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