Trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, at 43.5% ("No" leading at 56.5%), reflecting skepticism amid stalled comprehensive talks despite U.S.-brokered diplomatic overtures. President Trump's recent call with Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day truce on May 9, prompting Zelenskyy to seek details via Washington, but core territorial disputes remain unresolved with both sides holding maximalist positions, per Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour ceasefire collapsed amid mutual violation claims, failing to resume negotiations paused over Iran tensions. Ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk and Ukrainian advances signal persistent military escalation, outweighing hopes for a U.S. delegation visit to Kyiv. Lavrov's April 18 remarks underscore Moscow's lack of urgency for broader peace talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$54,434 Vol.
$54,434 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
$54,434 Vol.
$54,434 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, at 43.5% ("No" leading at 56.5%), reflecting skepticism amid stalled comprehensive talks despite U.S.-brokered diplomatic overtures. President Trump's recent call with Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day truce on May 9, prompting Zelenskyy to seek details via Washington, but core territorial disputes remain unresolved with both sides holding maximalist positions, per Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour ceasefire collapsed amid mutual violation claims, failing to resume negotiations paused over Iran tensions. Ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk and Ukrainian advances signal persistent military escalation, outweighing hopes for a U.S. delegation visit to Kyiv. Lavrov's April 18 remarks underscore Moscow's lack of urgency for broader peace talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$54,434End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, at 43.5% ("No" leading at 56.5%), reflecting skepticism amid stalled comprehensive talks despite U.S.-brokered diplomatic overtures. President Trump's recent call with Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day truce on May 9, prompting Zelenskyy to seek details via Washington, but core territorial disputes remain unresolved with both sides holding maximalist positions, per Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour ceasefire collapsed amid mutual violation claims, failing to resume negotiations paused over Iran tensions. Ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk and Ukrainian advances signal persistent military escalation, outweighing hopes for a U.S. delegation visit to Kyiv. Lavrov's April 18 remarks underscore Moscow's lack of urgency for broader peace talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$54,441End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, at 43.5% ("No" leading at 56.5%), reflecting skepticism amid stalled comprehensive talks despite U.S.-brokered diplomatic overtures. President Trump's recent call with Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day truce on May 9, prompting Zelenskyy to seek details via Washington, but core territorial disputes remain unresolved with both sides holding maximalist positions, per Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov. The mid-April Orthodox Easter 32-hour ceasefire collapsed amid mutual violation claims, failing to resume negotiations paused over Iran tensions. Ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk and Ukrainian advances signal persistent military escalation, outweighing hopes for a U.S. delegation visit to Kyiv. Lavrov's April 18 remarks underscore Moscow's lack of urgency for broader peace talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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