Russian forces have made incremental advances toward Serhiivka in the Pokrovsk direction as part of their spring-summer 2026 offensive, but Ukrainian defenses have largely blunted these efforts across the frontline, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments on April 29. No confirmed capture of Serhiivka has occurred, with clashes reported in the area as recently as early April amid ongoing assaults near nearby villages like Ivanivka. Ukrainian counteractions, including regaining 480 square kilometers southeast in early April, have slowed Russian momentum. Traders monitor daily troop movements, drone strikes, and potential reinforcements, with no major scheduled events but persistent escalation risks through May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Serhiivka by...?
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
7%
$5,817 Vol.
April 30
$5,450 Vol.
1%
May 31
$367 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png
Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png
Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made incremental advances toward Serhiivka in the Pokrovsk direction as part of their spring-summer 2026 offensive, but Ukrainian defenses have largely blunted these efforts across the frontline, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments on April 29. No confirmed capture of Serhiivka has occurred, with clashes reported in the area as recently as early April amid ongoing assaults near nearby villages like Ivanivka. Ukrainian counteractions, including regaining 480 square kilometers southeast in early April, have slowed Russian momentum. Traders monitor daily troop movements, drone strikes, and potential reinforcements, with no major scheduled events but persistent escalation risks through May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png
Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png
Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png
Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png
Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$5,817End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png
Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png
Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made incremental advances toward Serhiivka in the Pokrovsk direction as part of their spring-summer 2026 offensive, but Ukrainian defenses have largely blunted these efforts across the frontline, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments on April 29. No confirmed capture of Serhiivka has occurred, with clashes reported in the area as recently as early April amid ongoing assaults near nearby villages like Ivanivka. Ukrainian counteractions, including regaining 480 square kilometers southeast in early April, have slowed Russian momentum. Traders monitor daily troop movements, drone strikes, and potential reinforcements, with no major scheduled events but persistent escalation risks through May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png
Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png
Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png
Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png
Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$5,817End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have made incremental advances toward Serhiivka in the Pokrovsk direction as part of their spring-summer 2026 offensive, but Ukrainian defenses have largely blunted these efforts across the frontline, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments on April 29. No confirmed capture of Serhiivka has occurred, with clashes reported in the area as recently as early April amid ongoing assaults near nearby villages like Ivanivka. Ukrainian counteractions, including regaining 480 square kilometers southeast in early April, have slowed Russian momentum. Traders monitor daily troop movements, drone strikes, and potential reinforcements, with no major scheduled events but persistent escalation risks through May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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