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Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

icon for Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 92.0%

Keiko Fujimori <5% 6.4%

Other <1%

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%

Polymarket

$507,639 Vol.

Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 92.0%

Keiko Fujimori <5% 6.4%

Other <1%

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%

Polymarket

$507,639 Vol.

icon for Rafael López Aliaga 15%+

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+

$10,673 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%

Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%

$13,439 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%

Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%

$9,372 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rafael López Aliaga <5%

Rafael López Aliaga <5%

$21,353 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alfonso López Chau 5%+

Alfonso López Chau 5%+

$7,219 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alfonso López Chau <5%

Alfonso López Chau <5%

$6,302 Vol.

<1%

icon for Keiko Fujimori 5%+

Keiko Fujimori 5%+

$151,696 Vol.

92%

icon for Keiko Fujimori <5%

Keiko Fujimori <5%

$200,717 Vol.

6%

icon for Jorge Nieto

Jorge Nieto

$16,948 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$21,830 Vol.

<1%

icon for Wolfgang Grozo

Wolfgang Grozo

$4,675 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Álvarez

Carlos Álvarez

$6,098 Vol.

<1%

icon for Other

Other

$37,380 Vol.

<1%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12 featured a fragmented field of 35 candidates amid logistical delays that extended voting and slowed ONPE's official tally to over 96% of ballots processed by late April. Keiko Fujimori maintains a firm lead at approximately 17%, securing a margin exceeding 5 percentage points over second-place Roberto Sánchez, aligning with pre-election polls positioning her ahead in Lima and northern regions on anti-corruption and security platforms. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability for her 5%+ victory reflects this stability in a race headed to a June 7 runoff, though final JNE certification by mid-May could face challenges from remaining overseas ballots, observed actas rulings by Jurados Electorales Especiales, or legal disputes narrowing the gap below 5%.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$507,639
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12 featured a fragmented field of 35 candidates amid logistical delays that extended voting and slowed ONPE's official tally to over 96% of ballots processed by late April. Keiko Fujimori maintains a firm lead at approximately 17%, securing a margin exceeding 5 percentage points over second-place Roberto Sánchez, aligning with pre-election polls positioning her ahead in Lima and northern regions on anti-corruption and security platforms. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability for her 5%+ victory reflects this stability in a race headed to a June 7 runoff, though final JNE certification by mid-May could face challenges from remaining overseas ballots, observed actas rulings by Jurados Electorales Especiales, or legal disputes narrowing the gap below 5%.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$507,639
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Keiko Fujimori 5%+" at 92%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori <5%" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" has generated $507.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" is "Keiko Fujimori 5%+" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori <5%" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.