OpenAI's trader consensus implies a 59.5% probability of reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation by year-end, driven by its blockbuster March 31 funding round that secured $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—fueled by $2 billion monthly revenue, 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, and explosive enterprise adoption of large language models. However, sentiment has cooled from earlier 76-80% odds following Wall Street Journal reports of missed revenue and user targets, CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on H2 2026 IPO plans amid $660 billion AI capex demands, and Anthropic's surge to $30 billion+ run-rate revenue with secondary valuations topping $1 trillion. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings updates, next-gen model releases, and IPO filings, balancing growth momentum against execution risks in a hyper-competitive AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,905 Vol.
$22,905 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$22,905 Vol.
$22,905 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's trader consensus implies a 59.5% probability of reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation by year-end, driven by its blockbuster March 31 funding round that secured $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—fueled by $2 billion monthly revenue, 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, and explosive enterprise adoption of large language models. However, sentiment has cooled from earlier 76-80% odds following Wall Street Journal reports of missed revenue and user targets, CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on H2 2026 IPO plans amid $660 billion AI capex demands, and Anthropic's surge to $30 billion+ run-rate revenue with secondary valuations topping $1 trillion. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings updates, next-gen model releases, and IPO filings, balancing growth momentum against execution risks in a hyper-competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Volume
$22,905End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's trader consensus implies a 59.5% probability of reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation by year-end, driven by its blockbuster March 31 funding round that secured $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—fueled by $2 billion monthly revenue, 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, and explosive enterprise adoption of large language models. However, sentiment has cooled from earlier 76-80% odds following Wall Street Journal reports of missed revenue and user targets, CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on H2 2026 IPO plans amid $660 billion AI capex demands, and Anthropic's surge to $30 billion+ run-rate revenue with secondary valuations topping $1 trillion. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings updates, next-gen model releases, and IPO filings, balancing growth momentum against execution risks in a hyper-competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22,905End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's trader consensus implies a 59.5% probability of reaching a $1 trillion+ valuation by year-end, driven by its blockbuster March 31 funding round that secured $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—fueled by $2 billion monthly revenue, 900 million weekly ChatGPT users, and explosive enterprise adoption of large language models. However, sentiment has cooled from earlier 76-80% odds following Wall Street Journal reports of missed revenue and user targets, CFO Sarah Friar's reservations on H2 2026 IPO plans amid $660 billion AI capex demands, and Anthropic's surge to $30 billion+ run-rate revenue with secondary valuations topping $1 trillion. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings updates, next-gen model releases, and IPO filings, balancing growth momentum against execution risks in a hyper-competitive AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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