Trader consensus prices "Yes"—no major disruptions in 2026—at 55%, reflecting the absence of triggering events through late April despite elevated geopolitical risks. The first four months elapsed without U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Iranian regime collapse, or Trump exiting the presidency prematurely, even amid Trump ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and stalled ceasefire talks. Bitcoin holds steady around $76,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, while no 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or 250kt+ meteor strikes occurred. Monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets for January through March resolved affirmatively, bolstering odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a path to Republican Senate supermajority and tail risks persist through December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$518,953 Vol.
$518,953 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$518,953 Vol.
$518,953 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes"—no major disruptions in 2026—at 55%, reflecting the absence of triggering events through late April despite elevated geopolitical risks. The first four months elapsed without U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Iranian regime collapse, or Trump exiting the presidency prematurely, even amid Trump ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and stalled ceasefire talks. Bitcoin holds steady around $76,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, while no 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or 250kt+ meteor strikes occurred. Monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets for January through March resolved affirmatively, bolstering odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a path to Republican Senate supermajority and tail risks persist through December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$518,953End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes"—no major disruptions in 2026—at 55%, reflecting the absence of triggering events through late April despite elevated geopolitical risks. The first four months elapsed without U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Iranian regime collapse, or Trump exiting the presidency prematurely, even amid Trump ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and stalled ceasefire talks. Bitcoin holds steady around $76,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, while no 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or 250kt+ meteor strikes occurred. Monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets for January through March resolved affirmatively, bolstering odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a path to Republican Senate supermajority and tail risks persist through December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$518,953End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes"—no major disruptions in 2026—at 55%, reflecting the absence of triggering events through late April despite elevated geopolitical risks. The first four months elapsed without U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, Russian incursion into a NATO country, Iranian regime collapse, or Trump exiting the presidency prematurely, even amid Trump ultimatums on the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and stalled ceasefire talks. Bitcoin holds steady around $76,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, while no 9.0+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ eruptions, or 250kt+ meteor strikes occurred. Monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets for January through March resolved affirmatively, bolstering odds, though 2026 midterms loom as a path to Republican Senate supermajority and tail risks persist through December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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