Trader consensus gives "Yes" a narrow 54.5% edge after the first four months of 2026 elapsed without triggering any resolution events, such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, or Russian incursion into a NATO country. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities—including recent Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and ceasefire proposals—have heightened escalation risks without crossing into full invasion or regime collapse, sustaining "No" viability alongside tail risks like Bitcoin extremes, major natural disasters, or Trump leadership changes. This close contest reflects balanced bets on de-escalation versus potential flare-ups in the Taiwan Strait, Eastern Europe, or black-swan shocks through December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNunca pasa nada: 2026
Nunca pasa nada: 2026
Sí
$518,546 Vol.
$518,546 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$518,546 Vol.
$518,546 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus gives "Yes" a narrow 54.5% edge after the first four months of 2026 elapsed without triggering any resolution events, such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, or Russian incursion into a NATO country. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities—including recent Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and ceasefire proposals—have heightened escalation risks without crossing into full invasion or regime collapse, sustaining "No" viability alongside tail risks like Bitcoin extremes, major natural disasters, or Trump leadership changes. This close contest reflects balanced bets on de-escalation versus potential flare-ups in the Taiwan Strait, Eastern Europe, or black-swan shocks through December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$518,546Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus gives "Yes" a narrow 54.5% edge after the first four months of 2026 elapsed without triggering any resolution events, such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, or Russian incursion into a NATO country. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities—including recent Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and ceasefire proposals—have heightened escalation risks without crossing into full invasion or regime collapse, sustaining "No" viability alongside tail risks like Bitcoin extremes, major natural disasters, or Trump leadership changes. This close contest reflects balanced bets on de-escalation versus potential flare-ups in the Taiwan Strait, Eastern Europe, or black-swan shocks through December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$518,546Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus gives "Yes" a narrow 54.5% edge after the first four months of 2026 elapsed without triggering any resolution events, such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Chinese action on Taiwan, or Russian incursion into a NATO country. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities—including recent Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, special forces operations, and ceasefire proposals—have heightened escalation risks without crossing into full invasion or regime collapse, sustaining "No" viability alongside tail risks like Bitcoin extremes, major natural disasters, or Trump leadership changes. This close contest reflects balanced bets on de-escalation versus potential flare-ups in the Taiwan Strait, Eastern Europe, or black-swan shocks through December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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