Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits heavily restricted since the waterway's effective closure in late February 2026, with live tracking data showing daily volumes at roughly 4-10 vessels—about 10% of the pre-crisis average near 60-100. Iranian Revolutionary Guard coordination of limited permitted passages has produced modest late-May upticks but no sustained recovery amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 25-49 outcome at 48.5% and elevated probabilities for sub-50 ranges prices in expectations that these constraints will persist through the June 8 week, while lower odds on 100+ bins account for the risk of renewed escalation or full blockade. Key near-term catalysts include any early-June traffic reports or negotiation developments that could shift throughput.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
<25 30%
75-99 30%
50-74 29%
100+ 24%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 jun 2026
<25
30%
25-49
43%
50-74
29%
75-99
30%
100+
24%
<25 30%
75-99 30%
50-74 29%
100+ 24%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 jun 2026
<25
$0 Vol.
30%
25-49
$10 Vol.
43%
50-74
$0 Vol.
29%
75-99
$49 Vol.
30%
100+
$49 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits heavily restricted since the waterway's effective closure in late February 2026, with live tracking data showing daily volumes at roughly 4-10 vessels—about 10% of the pre-crisis average near 60-100. Iranian Revolutionary Guard coordination of limited permitted passages has produced modest late-May upticks but no sustained recovery amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 25-49 outcome at 48.5% and elevated probabilities for sub-50 ranges prices in expectations that these constraints will persist through the June 8 week, while lower odds on 100+ bins account for the risk of renewed escalation or full blockade. Key near-term catalysts include any early-June traffic reports or negotiation developments that could shift throughput.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volumen
$108Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits heavily restricted since the waterway's effective closure in late February 2026, with live tracking data showing daily volumes at roughly 4-10 vessels—about 10% of the pre-crisis average near 60-100. Iranian Revolutionary Guard coordination of limited permitted passages has produced modest late-May upticks but no sustained recovery amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 25-49 outcome at 48.5% and elevated probabilities for sub-50 ranges prices in expectations that these constraints will persist through the June 8 week, while lower odds on 100+ bins account for the risk of renewed escalation or full blockade. Key near-term catalysts include any early-June traffic reports or negotiation developments that could shift throughput.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$108Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits heavily restricted since the waterway's effective closure in late February 2026, with live tracking data showing daily volumes at roughly 4-10 vessels—about 10% of the pre-crisis average near 60-100. Iranian Revolutionary Guard coordination of limited permitted passages has produced modest late-May upticks but no sustained recovery amid stalled diplomacy and security concerns. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 25-49 outcome at 48.5% and elevated probabilities for sub-50 ranges prices in expectations that these constraints will persist through the June 8 week, while lower odds on 100+ bins account for the risk of renewed escalation or full blockade. Key near-term catalysts include any early-June traffic reports or negotiation developments that could shift throughput.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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