Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Nord Stream pipelines resuming operations before 2027, driven by unrepaired sabotage damage from 2022 explosions that severed three of four lines, Nord Stream 2 AG's ongoing insolvency proceedings, and entrenched EU transaction bans enacted in 2025 and reaffirmed in early 2026. German officials, including Economy Minister Robert Habeck in March 2025, have explicitly rejected revival amid the unresolved Russia-Ukraine war, prioritizing energy security through LNG imports from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's unverified March 2026 claim of U.S. interest in acquisition has failed to shift sentiment, as no ceasefire, sanctions relief, or repair permits—expired September 2025—materialize before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline. Late diplomatic breakthroughs remain the sole upset scenario.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,039 Vol.
$10,039 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,039 Vol.
$10,039 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Nord Stream pipelines resuming operations before 2027, driven by unrepaired sabotage damage from 2022 explosions that severed three of four lines, Nord Stream 2 AG's ongoing insolvency proceedings, and entrenched EU transaction bans enacted in 2025 and reaffirmed in early 2026. German officials, including Economy Minister Robert Habeck in March 2025, have explicitly rejected revival amid the unresolved Russia-Ukraine war, prioritizing energy security through LNG imports from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's unverified March 2026 claim of U.S. interest in acquisition has failed to shift sentiment, as no ceasefire, sanctions relief, or repair permits—expired September 2025—materialize before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline. Late diplomatic breakthroughs remain the sole upset scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$10,039End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Nord Stream pipelines resuming operations before 2027, driven by unrepaired sabotage damage from 2022 explosions that severed three of four lines, Nord Stream 2 AG's ongoing insolvency proceedings, and entrenched EU transaction bans enacted in 2025 and reaffirmed in early 2026. German officials, including Economy Minister Robert Habeck in March 2025, have explicitly rejected revival amid the unresolved Russia-Ukraine war, prioritizing energy security through LNG imports from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's unverified March 2026 claim of U.S. interest in acquisition has failed to shift sentiment, as no ceasefire, sanctions relief, or repair permits—expired September 2025—materialize before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline. Late diplomatic breakthroughs remain the sole upset scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,039End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against the Nord Stream pipelines resuming operations before 2027, driven by unrepaired sabotage damage from 2022 explosions that severed three of four lines, Nord Stream 2 AG's ongoing insolvency proceedings, and entrenched EU transaction bans enacted in 2025 and reaffirmed in early 2026. German officials, including Economy Minister Robert Habeck in March 2025, have explicitly rejected revival amid the unresolved Russia-Ukraine war, prioritizing energy security through LNG imports from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's unverified March 2026 claim of U.S. interest in acquisition has failed to shift sentiment, as no ceasefire, sanctions relief, or repair permits—expired September 2025—materialize before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline. Late diplomatic breakthroughs remain the sole upset scenario.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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