Spain's Socialist-led government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has ruled out early elections or a voluntary confidence vote ahead of the 2027 general election, while opposition parties including the PP and Vox lack the parliamentary support needed to secure the 176-vote absolute majority for a successful no-confidence motion. Key coalition partners such as the Catalan pro-independence party Junts have explicitly declined to back any opposition-led effort, citing concerns over a potential shift to a PP-Vox government. Recent regional election setbacks and corruption investigations have increased political pressure, yet no unified opposition momentum has emerged to force a floor vote before the June 30 deadline. These coalition arithmetic and procedural barriers underpin traders' strong consensus that no motion will reach a vote in the Congress of Deputies by the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain's Socialist-led government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has ruled out early elections or a voluntary confidence vote ahead of the 2027 general election, while opposition parties including the PP and Vox lack the parliamentary support needed to secure the 176-vote absolute majority for a successful no-confidence motion. Key coalition partners such as the Catalan pro-independence party Junts have explicitly declined to back any opposition-led effort, citing concerns over a potential shift to a PP-Vox government. Recent regional election setbacks and corruption investigations have increased political pressure, yet no unified opposition momentum has emerged to force a floor vote before the June 30 deadline. These coalition arithmetic and procedural barriers underpin traders' strong consensus that no motion will reach a vote in the Congress of Deputies by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$5,707End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain's Socialist-led government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has ruled out early elections or a voluntary confidence vote ahead of the 2027 general election, while opposition parties including the PP and Vox lack the parliamentary support needed to secure the 176-vote absolute majority for a successful no-confidence motion. Key coalition partners such as the Catalan pro-independence party Junts have explicitly declined to back any opposition-led effort, citing concerns over a potential shift to a PP-Vox government. Recent regional election setbacks and corruption investigations have increased political pressure, yet no unified opposition momentum has emerged to force a floor vote before the June 30 deadline. These coalition arithmetic and procedural barriers underpin traders' strong consensus that no motion will reach a vote in the Congress of Deputies by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,707End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Spain's Socialist-led government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has ruled out early elections or a voluntary confidence vote ahead of the 2027 general election, while opposition parties including the PP and Vox lack the parliamentary support needed to secure the 176-vote absolute majority for a successful no-confidence motion. Key coalition partners such as the Catalan pro-independence party Junts have explicitly declined to back any opposition-led effort, citing concerns over a potential shift to a PP-Vox government. Recent regional election setbacks and corruption investigations have increased political pressure, yet no unified opposition momentum has emerged to force a floor vote before the June 30 deadline. These coalition arithmetic and procedural barriers underpin traders' strong consensus that no motion will reach a vote in the Congress of Deputies by the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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