Lula's push to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement faces Senate resistance that has already produced a historic rejection. On April 29, 2026, senators voted 42-34 against Attorney General Jorge Messias, the first such defeat for a presidential nominee in more than 130 years, amid disputes involving Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and preferences for alternative candidates such as Rodrigo Pacheco. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or select a new nominee—potentially a woman—before the October 2026 general elections, rather than leaving the seat for his successor. These executive-legislative frictions, combined with the approaching electoral timeline and the requirement for Senate confirmation, shape trader assessments of announcement timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
June 30
23%
September 30
47%
December 31
81%
$9,856 Vol.
June 30
$6,512 Vol.
23%
September 30
$956 Vol.
47%
December 31
$2,388 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's push to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement faces Senate resistance that has already produced a historic rejection. On April 29, 2026, senators voted 42-34 against Attorney General Jorge Messias, the first such defeat for a presidential nominee in more than 130 years, amid disputes involving Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and preferences for alternative candidates such as Rodrigo Pacheco. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or select a new nominee—potentially a woman—before the October 2026 general elections, rather than leaving the seat for his successor. These executive-legislative frictions, combined with the approaching electoral timeline and the requirement for Senate confirmation, shape trader assessments of announcement timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$9,856End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's push to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement faces Senate resistance that has already produced a historic rejection. On April 29, 2026, senators voted 42-34 against Attorney General Jorge Messias, the first such defeat for a presidential nominee in more than 130 years, amid disputes involving Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and preferences for alternative candidates such as Rodrigo Pacheco. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or select a new nominee—potentially a woman—before the October 2026 general elections, rather than leaving the seat for his successor. These executive-legislative frictions, combined with the approaching electoral timeline and the requirement for Senate confirmation, shape trader assessments of announcement timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,856End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula's push to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement faces Senate resistance that has already produced a historic rejection. On April 29, 2026, senators voted 42-34 against Attorney General Jorge Messias, the first such defeat for a presidential nominee in more than 130 years, amid disputes involving Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and preferences for alternative candidates such as Rodrigo Pacheco. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or select a new nominee—potentially a woman—before the October 2026 general elections, rather than leaving the seat for his successor. These executive-legislative frictions, combined with the approaching electoral timeline and the requirement for Senate confirmation, shape trader assessments of announcement timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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