Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale data, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS records, Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecasted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center bolster below-normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity starting June 1, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events—historical baselines confirm U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade and M8.5+ quakes every 10-20 years. Peak hurricane season (August-October) and May forecast updates remain key catalysts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$215,935 Vol.
$215,935 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$215,935 Vol.
$215,935 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale data, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS records, Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecasted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center bolster below-normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity starting June 1, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events—historical baselines confirm U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade and M8.5+ quakes every 10-20 years. Peak hurricane season (August-October) and May forecast updates remain key catalysts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$215,935End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale data, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS records, Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecasted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center bolster below-normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity starting June 1, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events—historical baselines confirm U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade and M8.5+ quakes every 10-20 years. Peak hurricane season (August-October) and May forecast updates remain key catalysts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$215,942End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale data, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS records, Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 eruption from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst tracked by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecasted by NOAA Climate Prediction Center bolster below-normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity starting June 1, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events—historical baselines confirm U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under once per decade and M8.5+ quakes every 10-20 years. Peak hurricane season (August-October) and May forecast updates remain key catalysts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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