Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at a 71% implied probability, driven by persistent delays and the program's ongoing testing phase. As of early May 2026, no flights have occurred this year, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded Version 3 ship and Super Heavy booster featuring new Raptor engines, launch pad, and test site—targeted for mid-May after multiple postponements announced by Elon Musk in April. Historical cadence remains low at 11 total flights through late 2025, prioritizing rapid reusability and reliability over volume amid FAA regulatory hurdles. Success in Flight 12 could shift sentiment toward 5-6 launches (22%), but infrastructure scaling and anomaly resolutions loom as key uncertainties for higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5 71%
5-6 22%
7-8 13.0%
9-10 4.0%
$444,897 Vol.
$444,897 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
71%
5-6
22%
7-8
10%
9-10
4%
11-12
4%
13-14
4%
15-16
<1%
>16
3%
<5 71%
5-6 22%
7-8 13.0%
9-10 4.0%
$444,897 Vol.
$444,897 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$89,443 Vol.
71%
5-6
$107,523 Vol.
22%
7-8
$151,283 Vol.
10%
9-10
$55,314 Vol.
4%
11-12
$3,447 Vol.
4%
13-14
$4,496 Vol.
4%
15-16
$24,573 Vol.
<1%
>16
$8,819 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at a 71% implied probability, driven by persistent delays and the program's ongoing testing phase. As of early May 2026, no flights have occurred this year, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded Version 3 ship and Super Heavy booster featuring new Raptor engines, launch pad, and test site—targeted for mid-May after multiple postponements announced by Elon Musk in April. Historical cadence remains low at 11 total flights through late 2025, prioritizing rapid reusability and reliability over volume amid FAA regulatory hurdles. Success in Flight 12 could shift sentiment toward 5-6 launches (22%), but infrastructure scaling and anomaly resolutions loom as key uncertainties for higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$444,897End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at a 71% implied probability, driven by persistent delays and the program's ongoing testing phase. As of early May 2026, no flights have occurred this year, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded Version 3 ship and Super Heavy booster featuring new Raptor engines, launch pad, and test site—targeted for mid-May after multiple postponements announced by Elon Musk in April. Historical cadence remains low at 11 total flights through late 2025, prioritizing rapid reusability and reliability over volume amid FAA regulatory hurdles. Success in Flight 12 could shift sentiment toward 5-6 launches (22%), but infrastructure scaling and anomaly resolutions loom as key uncertainties for higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$444,897End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with <5 at a 71% implied probability, driven by persistent delays and the program's ongoing testing phase. As of early May 2026, no flights have occurred this year, with Flight 12—the debut of the upgraded Version 3 ship and Super Heavy booster featuring new Raptor engines, launch pad, and test site—targeted for mid-May after multiple postponements announced by Elon Musk in April. Historical cadence remains low at 11 total flights through late 2025, prioritizing rapid reusability and reliability over volume amid FAA regulatory hurdles. Success in Flight 12 could shift sentiment toward 5-6 launches (22%), but infrastructure scaling and anomaly resolutions loom as key uncertainties for higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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