Global seismicity exhibits high week-to-week variability, with an average of roughly one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide driven by plate tectonics and random stress release along faults. The closely matched market-implied odds for zero, one, or two events during June 8–14 reflect this Poisson-like distribution around the baseline rate, compounded by early-week activity including a 7.8 and 6.5 in the Philippines region that already contribute to the total. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global surge beyond normal fluctuations, while aftershock potential from recent large events and possible new independent quakes remain key variables that could shift the final count before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 8 - June 14?
1 51%
0 48%
2 26%
3 3.4%
$14,658 Vol.
$14,658 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
0
32%
1
39%
2
32%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 51%
0 48%
2 26%
3 3.4%
$14,658 Vol.
$14,658 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
0
$5,353 Vol.
32%
1
$1,385 Vol.
39%
2
$851 Vol.
32%
3
$963 Vol.
3%
4
$1,564 Vol.
1%
5
$1,422 Vol.
<1%
>5
$3,119 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity exhibits high week-to-week variability, with an average of roughly one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide driven by plate tectonics and random stress release along faults. The closely matched market-implied odds for zero, one, or two events during June 8–14 reflect this Poisson-like distribution around the baseline rate, compounded by early-week activity including a 7.8 and 6.5 in the Philippines region that already contribute to the total. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global surge beyond normal fluctuations, while aftershock potential from recent large events and possible new independent quakes remain key variables that could shift the final count before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$14,658End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity exhibits high week-to-week variability, with an average of roughly one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide driven by plate tectonics and random stress release along faults. The closely matched market-implied odds for zero, one, or two events during June 8–14 reflect this Poisson-like distribution around the baseline rate, compounded by early-week activity including a 7.8 and 6.5 in the Philippines region that already contribute to the total. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global surge beyond normal fluctuations, while aftershock potential from recent large events and possible new independent quakes remain key variables that could shift the final count before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$14,658End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity exhibits high week-to-week variability, with an average of roughly one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater events worldwide driven by plate tectonics and random stress release along faults. The closely matched market-implied odds for zero, one, or two events during June 8–14 reflect this Poisson-like distribution around the baseline rate, compounded by early-week activity including a 7.8 and 6.5 in the Philippines region that already contribute to the total. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global surge beyond normal fluctuations, while aftershock potential from recent large events and possible new independent quakes remain key variables that could shift the final count before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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