Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae in livestock in southern Texas and New Mexico—starting with a confirmed bovine case on June 3, 2026—have intensified trader focus on whether federal authorities will issue a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS leads containment through the sterile insect technique (SIT), releasing millions of sterilized males weekly alongside surveillance and quarantines in affected counties, building on prior eradication success since 1966. CDC activated a Level 3 Emergency Operations Center on June 11 to support state partners, while Texas and New Mexico issued state-level disaster and animal health declarations; these steps signal coordinated response but fall short of a broader national declaration. Key variables include additional case confirmations, model projections of northward spread under current temperatures, and upcoming USDA/APHIS status updates or HHS actions that could trigger escalation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around the threshold for federal action amid effective early containment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
June 30
6%
August 30
50%
October 31
51%
December 31
52%
$150 Vol.
June 30
$150 Vol.
6%
August 30
$0 Vol.
50%
October 31
$0 Vol.
51%
December 31
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae in livestock in southern Texas and New Mexico—starting with a confirmed bovine case on June 3, 2026—have intensified trader focus on whether federal authorities will issue a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS leads containment through the sterile insect technique (SIT), releasing millions of sterilized males weekly alongside surveillance and quarantines in affected counties, building on prior eradication success since 1966. CDC activated a Level 3 Emergency Operations Center on June 11 to support state partners, while Texas and New Mexico issued state-level disaster and animal health declarations; these steps signal coordinated response but fall short of a broader national declaration. Key variables include additional case confirmations, model projections of northward spread under current temperatures, and upcoming USDA/APHIS status updates or HHS actions that could trigger escalation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around the threshold for federal action amid effective early containment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$150End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae in livestock in southern Texas and New Mexico—starting with a confirmed bovine case on June 3, 2026—have intensified trader focus on whether federal authorities will issue a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS leads containment through the sterile insect technique (SIT), releasing millions of sterilized males weekly alongside surveillance and quarantines in affected counties, building on prior eradication success since 1966. CDC activated a Level 3 Emergency Operations Center on June 11 to support state partners, while Texas and New Mexico issued state-level disaster and animal health declarations; these steps signal coordinated response but fall short of a broader national declaration. Key variables include additional case confirmations, model projections of northward spread under current temperatures, and upcoming USDA/APHIS status updates or HHS actions that could trigger escalation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around the threshold for federal action amid effective early containment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$150End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) larvae in livestock in southern Texas and New Mexico—starting with a confirmed bovine case on June 3, 2026—have intensified trader focus on whether federal authorities will issue a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS leads containment through the sterile insect technique (SIT), releasing millions of sterilized males weekly alongside surveillance and quarantines in affected counties, building on prior eradication success since 1966. CDC activated a Level 3 Emergency Operations Center on June 11 to support state partners, while Texas and New Mexico issued state-level disaster and animal health declarations; these steps signal coordinated response but fall short of a broader national declaration. Key variables include additional case confirmations, model projections of northward spread under current temperatures, and upcoming USDA/APHIS status updates or HHS actions that could trigger escalation. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty around the threshold for federal action amid effective early containment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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