Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-average 2026 Atlantic activity at 75% of the 1991–2020 norm. This stems from fading weak La Niña and a likely El Niño development (60–70% chance per NOAA's April update), which boosts upper-level wind shear to suppress tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. No Category 5 has struck the U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, with only four such events since 1851; current models peg major hurricane U.S. landfall odds at 32%. Watch NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start for updates, as ENSO evolution could shift trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$134,203 Vol.
$134,203 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$134,203 Vol.
$134,203 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-average 2026 Atlantic activity at 75% of the 1991–2020 norm. This stems from fading weak La Niña and a likely El Niño development (60–70% chance per NOAA's April update), which boosts upper-level wind shear to suppress tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. No Category 5 has struck the U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, with only four such events since 1851; current models peg major hurricane U.S. landfall odds at 32%. Watch NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start for updates, as ENSO evolution could shift trajectories.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$134,203End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-average 2026 Atlantic activity at 75% of the 1991–2020 norm. This stems from fading weak La Niña and a likely El Niño development (60–70% chance per NOAA's April update), which boosts upper-level wind shear to suppress tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. No Category 5 has struck the U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, with only four such events since 1851; current models peg major hurricane U.S. landfall odds at 32%. Watch NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start for updates, as ENSO evolution could shift trajectories.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$134,203End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of at least 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-average 2026 Atlantic activity at 75% of the 1991–2020 norm. This stems from fading weak La Niña and a likely El Niño development (60–70% chance per NOAA's April update), which boosts upper-level wind shear to suppress tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. No Category 5 has struck the U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, with only four such events since 1851; current models peg major hurricane U.S. landfall odds at 32%. Watch NOAA's May outlook and June 1 season start for updates, as ENSO evolution could shift trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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