Recent community optimizations on the ecdsa.fail platform have driven trader sentiment by demonstrating measurable improvements over Google Quantum AI’s March 2026 resource estimates for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem. Those estimates, verified via zero-knowledge proofs, showed Shor’s algorithm executable with 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates—roughly 20 times fewer physical qubits than prior benchmarks when mapped to superconducting architectures. Open submissions have since reduced the qubit-Toffoli product metric by up to 75 percent in some cases, with reports of a 15 percent gain over Google’s circuits by early June 2026. Progress depends on further circuit compilation advances before the June 30 resolution, as the leaderboard tracks verifiable optimizations against fixed resolution criteria for logical resources.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 jun 2026
Más del 40%
54%
50%+
55%
$0.00 Vol.
Más del 40%
$0 Vol.
54%
50%+
$0 Vol.
55%
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.
If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.
Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Recent community optimizations on the ecdsa.fail platform have driven trader sentiment by demonstrating measurable improvements over Google Quantum AI’s March 2026 resource estimates for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem. Those estimates, verified via zero-knowledge proofs, showed Shor’s algorithm executable with 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates—roughly 20 times fewer physical qubits than prior benchmarks when mapped to superconducting architectures. Open submissions have since reduced the qubit-Toffoli product metric by up to 75 percent in some cases, with reports of a 15 percent gain over Google’s circuits by early June 2026. Progress depends on further circuit compilation advances before the June 30 resolution, as the leaderboard tracks verifiable optimizations against fixed resolution criteria for logical resources.
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.
If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.
Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.
If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.
Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.
If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.
Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Recent community optimizations on the ecdsa.fail platform have driven trader sentiment by demonstrating measurable improvements over Google Quantum AI’s March 2026 resource estimates for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem. Those estimates, verified via zero-knowledge proofs, showed Shor’s algorithm executable with 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates—roughly 20 times fewer physical qubits than prior benchmarks when mapped to superconducting architectures. Open submissions have since reduced the qubit-Toffoli product metric by up to 75 percent in some cases, with reports of a 15 percent gain over Google’s circuits by early June 2026. Progress depends on further circuit compilation advances before the June 30 resolution, as the leaderboard tracks verifiable optimizations against fixed resolution criteria for logical resources.
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.
If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.
Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.
If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.
Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent community optimizations on the ecdsa.fail platform have driven trader sentiment by demonstrating measurable improvements over Google Quantum AI’s March 2026 resource estimates for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem. Those estimates, verified via zero-knowledge proofs, showed Shor’s algorithm executable with 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates—roughly 20 times fewer physical qubits than prior benchmarks when mapped to superconducting architectures. Open submissions have since reduced the qubit-Toffoli product metric by up to 75 percent in some cases, with reports of a 15 percent gain over Google’s circuits by early June 2026. Progress depends on further circuit compilation advances before the June 30 resolution, as the leaderboard tracks verifiable optimizations against fixed resolution criteria for logical resources.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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