Strong trader consensus on “No” at 90.5% reflects the inherent rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions—globally averaging once every few decades, with the last confirmed example (Pinatubo) in 1991—and the absence of precursors through mid-2026. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records show 47 eruptions this year, including ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin plus smaller explosive events such as Dukono, yet none approach the required plume heights above 10 km or ejecta volumes for VEI 6. USGS and monitoring data indicate only modest unrest without rapid inflation, deep seismicity, or magmatic recharge at major systems. A credible challenge would require sudden escalation at an under-monitored caldera or unexpected new unrest at a high-volume stratovolcano before year-end.