As of mid-2026, the absence of major seismic, meteorological, or geophysical events meeting predefined thresholds through the first half of the year has supported trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability. Official monitoring from agencies like the USGS and NHC shows activity remaining within historical baselines for magnitude, intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and case criteria, with no confirmed outliers in early-year data. Seasonal patterns and model consensus indicate continued typical variability rather than escalation, though forecast uncertainty and potential late-year shifts in ENSO or tectonic activity could alter outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$223,389 Vol.
$223,389 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$223,389 Vol.
$223,389 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of mid-2026, the absence of major seismic, meteorological, or geophysical events meeting predefined thresholds through the first half of the year has supported trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability. Official monitoring from agencies like the USGS and NHC shows activity remaining within historical baselines for magnitude, intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and case criteria, with no confirmed outliers in early-year data. Seasonal patterns and model consensus indicate continued typical variability rather than escalation, though forecast uncertainty and potential late-year shifts in ENSO or tectonic activity could alter outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$223,389End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of mid-2026, the absence of major seismic, meteorological, or geophysical events meeting predefined thresholds through the first half of the year has supported trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability. Official monitoring from agencies like the USGS and NHC shows activity remaining within historical baselines for magnitude, intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and case criteria, with no confirmed outliers in early-year data. Seasonal patterns and model consensus indicate continued typical variability rather than escalation, though forecast uncertainty and potential late-year shifts in ENSO or tectonic activity could alter outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$223,389End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of mid-2026, the absence of major seismic, meteorological, or geophysical events meeting predefined thresholds through the first half of the year has supported trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability. Official monitoring from agencies like the USGS and NHC shows activity remaining within historical baselines for magnitude, intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and case criteria, with no confirmed outliers in early-year data. Seasonal patterns and model consensus indicate continued typical variability rather than escalation, though forecast uncertainty and potential late-year shifts in ENSO or tectonic activity could alter outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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