Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against permanent removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's repeated issuance of temporary waivers rather than structural reform. Recent 90-day extensions—initially in March amid energy market volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions and fuel cost spikes—have eased short-term supply pressures for foreign-flagged vessels without addressing core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed ships. Entrenched support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal lawmakers creates formidable regulatory barriers to repeal, with no advancing legislation despite advocacy from groups like Americans for Prosperity. As resolution nears, absent congressional action or bold executive overhaul, traders anticipate status quo persistence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$51,041 Vol.
$51,041 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$51,041 Vol.
$51,041 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against permanent removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's repeated issuance of temporary waivers rather than structural reform. Recent 90-day extensions—initially in March amid energy market volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions and fuel cost spikes—have eased short-term supply pressures for foreign-flagged vessels without addressing core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed ships. Entrenched support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal lawmakers creates formidable regulatory barriers to repeal, with no advancing legislation despite advocacy from groups like Americans for Prosperity. As resolution nears, absent congressional action or bold executive overhaul, traders anticipate status quo persistence.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$51,041End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against permanent removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's repeated issuance of temporary waivers rather than structural reform. Recent 90-day extensions—initially in March amid energy market volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions and fuel cost spikes—have eased short-term supply pressures for foreign-flagged vessels without addressing core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed ships. Entrenched support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal lawmakers creates formidable regulatory barriers to repeal, with no advancing legislation despite advocacy from groups like Americans for Prosperity. As resolution nears, absent congressional action or bold executive overhaul, traders anticipate status quo persistence.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,041End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against permanent removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's repeated issuance of temporary waivers rather than structural reform. Recent 90-day extensions—initially in March amid energy market volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions and fuel cost spikes—have eased short-term supply pressures for foreign-flagged vessels without addressing core mandates for U.S.-built, owned, and crewed ships. Entrenched support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal lawmakers creates formidable regulatory barriers to repeal, with no advancing legislation despite advocacy from groups like Americans for Prosperity. As resolution nears, absent congressional action or bold executive overhaul, traders anticipate status quo persistence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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