**Strong institutional barriers and recent temporary waivers explain the 98.9% market-implied probability that Jones Act requirements will not be removed by June 30, 2026.** The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 mandates U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic coastal shipping, shielding maritime unions, shipbuilders, and protected carriers from foreign competition while elevating transport costs for energy, fertilizer, and other commodities. In March 2026, the Trump administration issued a limited 60-day national-defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) amid Iran-related supply disruptions and fuel-price spikes; this was later extended 90 days through mid-August, permitting foreign-flag vessels for specific energy and agricultural shipments without altering the statute’s core mandates. No legislation, executive order, or regulatory filing signals permanent repeal, broad suspension, or structural reform before the June 30 deadline. Entrenched stakeholder opposition and the absence of congressional momentum reinforce trader consensus that the status quo will hold, consistent with historical precedent of only narrow, time-bound waivers. Tail risks remain low but include an unforeseen acute supply shock—such as intensified geopolitical disruption—prompting an expanded waiver or a last-minute legislative rider. With resolution imminent and no new catalysts evident, market-implied odds above 98% capture the high barriers to meaningful change within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$52,921 Vol.
$52,921 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$52,921 Vol.
$52,921 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong institutional barriers and recent temporary waivers explain the 98.9% market-implied probability that Jones Act requirements will not be removed by June 30, 2026.**
The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 mandates U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic coastal shipping, shielding maritime unions, shipbuilders, and protected carriers from foreign competition while elevating transport costs for energy, fertilizer, and other commodities. In March 2026, the Trump administration issued a limited 60-day national-defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) amid Iran-related supply disruptions and fuel-price spikes; this was later extended 90 days through mid-August, permitting foreign-flag vessels for specific energy and agricultural shipments without altering the statute’s core mandates.
No legislation, executive order, or regulatory filing signals permanent repeal, broad suspension, or structural reform before the June 30 deadline. Entrenched stakeholder opposition and the absence of congressional momentum reinforce trader consensus that the status quo will hold, consistent with historical precedent of only narrow, time-bound waivers.
Tail risks remain low but include an unforeseen acute supply shock—such as intensified geopolitical disruption—prompting an expanded waiver or a last-minute legislative rider. With resolution imminent and no new catalysts evident, market-implied odds above 98% capture the high barriers to meaningful change within the narrow remaining window.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$52,921End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong institutional barriers and recent temporary waivers explain the 98.9% market-implied probability that Jones Act requirements will not be removed by June 30, 2026.**
The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 mandates U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic coastal shipping, shielding maritime unions, shipbuilders, and protected carriers from foreign competition while elevating transport costs for energy, fertilizer, and other commodities. In March 2026, the Trump administration issued a limited 60-day national-defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) amid Iran-related supply disruptions and fuel-price spikes; this was later extended 90 days through mid-August, permitting foreign-flag vessels for specific energy and agricultural shipments without altering the statute’s core mandates.
No legislation, executive order, or regulatory filing signals permanent repeal, broad suspension, or structural reform before the June 30 deadline. Entrenched stakeholder opposition and the absence of congressional momentum reinforce trader consensus that the status quo will hold, consistent with historical precedent of only narrow, time-bound waivers.
Tail risks remain low but include an unforeseen acute supply shock—such as intensified geopolitical disruption—prompting an expanded waiver or a last-minute legislative rider. With resolution imminent and no new catalysts evident, market-implied odds above 98% capture the high barriers to meaningful change within the narrow remaining window.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,921End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong institutional barriers and recent temporary waivers explain the 98.9% market-implied probability that Jones Act requirements will not be removed by June 30, 2026.** The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 mandates U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic coastal shipping, shielding maritime unions, shipbuilders, and protected carriers from foreign competition while elevating transport costs for energy, fertilizer, and other commodities. In March 2026, the Trump administration issued a limited 60-day national-defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) amid Iran-related supply disruptions and fuel-price spikes; this was later extended 90 days through mid-August, permitting foreign-flag vessels for specific energy and agricultural shipments without altering the statute’s core mandates. No legislation, executive order, or regulatory filing signals permanent repeal, broad suspension, or structural reform before the June 30 deadline. Entrenched stakeholder opposition and the absence of congressional momentum reinforce trader consensus that the status quo will hold, consistent with historical precedent of only narrow, time-bound waivers. Tail risks remain low but include an unforeseen acute supply shock—such as intensified geopolitical disruption—prompting an expanded waiver or a last-minute legislative rider. With resolution imminent and no new catalysts evident, market-implied odds above 98% capture the high barriers to meaningful change within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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