Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because no state legislature has introduced or advanced a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose primary purpose is state secession from the United States during the 2025-2026 sessions. Most chambers adjourned weeks or months earlier, leaving insufficient time for committee review, floor debate, or recorded votes before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. County-level measures in states such as New Mexico address internal boundary changes rather than withdrawal from the Union and therefore fall outside market criteria. Public polling on hypothetical secession support has not translated into legislative action, consistent with historical patterns in which such proposals remain fringe and face insurmountable procedural and constitutional hurdles. A qualifying vote would require an unscheduled special session and rapid procedural maneuvering in the remaining days, an outcome traders view as remote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Alguna legislatura estatal de EE. UU. vota sobre la secesión antes del 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$39,508 Vol.
$39,508 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$39,508 Vol.
$39,508 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because no state legislature has introduced or advanced a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose primary purpose is state secession from the United States during the 2025-2026 sessions. Most chambers adjourned weeks or months earlier, leaving insufficient time for committee review, floor debate, or recorded votes before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. County-level measures in states such as New Mexico address internal boundary changes rather than withdrawal from the Union and therefore fall outside market criteria. Public polling on hypothetical secession support has not translated into legislative action, consistent with historical patterns in which such proposals remain fringe and face insurmountable procedural and constitutional hurdles. A qualifying vote would require an unscheduled special session and rapid procedural maneuvering in the remaining days, an outcome traders view as remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volumen
$39,508Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because no state legislature has introduced or advanced a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose primary purpose is state secession from the United States during the 2025-2026 sessions. Most chambers adjourned weeks or months earlier, leaving insufficient time for committee review, floor debate, or recorded votes before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. County-level measures in states such as New Mexico address internal boundary changes rather than withdrawal from the Union and therefore fall outside market criteria. Public polling on hypothetical secession support has not translated into legislative action, consistent with historical patterns in which such proposals remain fringe and face insurmountable procedural and constitutional hurdles. A qualifying vote would require an unscheduled special session and rapid procedural maneuvering in the remaining days, an outcome traders view as remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$39,508Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because no state legislature has introduced or advanced a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose primary purpose is state secession from the United States during the 2025-2026 sessions. Most chambers adjourned weeks or months earlier, leaving insufficient time for committee review, floor debate, or recorded votes before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. County-level measures in states such as New Mexico address internal boundary changes rather than withdrawal from the Union and therefore fall outside market criteria. Public polling on hypothetical secession support has not translated into legislative action, consistent with historical patterns in which such proposals remain fringe and face insurmountable procedural and constitutional hurdles. A qualifying vote would require an unscheduled special session and rapid procedural maneuvering in the remaining days, an outcome traders view as remote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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