Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will vote on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under the Supreme Court's Texas v. White ruling, which deems unilateral secession illegal without congressional consent, and a complete absence of bills advancing toward floor votes in any state. Recent fringe efforts, like New Mexico's Lea County partition proposal to join Texas or California's stalled plebiscite initiative, focus on internal realignments or non-binding measures rather than full independence, with Texas Independence Referendum Act talks deferred to the 2027 session. No legislative sessions are poised for such action amid routine priorities, though extreme scenarios like widespread civil unrest or a contested federal election could theoretically prompt a symbolic vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAny US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$25,064 Vol.
$25,064 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$25,064 Vol.
$25,064 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will vote on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under the Supreme Court's Texas v. White ruling, which deems unilateral secession illegal without congressional consent, and a complete absence of bills advancing toward floor votes in any state. Recent fringe efforts, like New Mexico's Lea County partition proposal to join Texas or California's stalled plebiscite initiative, focus on internal realignments or non-binding measures rather than full independence, with Texas Independence Referendum Act talks deferred to the 2027 session. No legislative sessions are poised for such action amid routine priorities, though extreme scenarios like widespread civil unrest or a contested federal election could theoretically prompt a symbolic vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$25,064End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will vote on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under the Supreme Court's Texas v. White ruling, which deems unilateral secession illegal without congressional consent, and a complete absence of bills advancing toward floor votes in any state. Recent fringe efforts, like New Mexico's Lea County partition proposal to join Texas or California's stalled plebiscite initiative, focus on internal realignments or non-binding measures rather than full independence, with Texas Independence Referendum Act talks deferred to the 2027 session. No legislative sessions are poised for such action amid routine priorities, though extreme scenarios like widespread civil unrest or a contested federal election could theoretically prompt a symbolic vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$25,064End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will vote on secession by June 30, 2026, driven by insurmountable constitutional barriers under the Supreme Court's Texas v. White ruling, which deems unilateral secession illegal without congressional consent, and a complete absence of bills advancing toward floor votes in any state. Recent fringe efforts, like New Mexico's Lea County partition proposal to join Texas or California's stalled plebiscite initiative, focus on internal realignments or non-binding measures rather than full independence, with Texas Independence Referendum Act talks deferred to the 2027 session. No legislative sessions are poised for such action amid routine priorities, though extreme scenarios like widespread civil unrest or a contested federal election could theoretically prompt a symbolic vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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