US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by May 31. Iran's April 27 proposal, relayed via Pakistani mediators, prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire extension while explicitly postponing nuclear talks amid internal divisions on concessions. The US demands a 20-year moratorium and removal of Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade per recent IAEA reports—while Tehran offers at most a five-year suspension, insisting on its enrichment rights. IAEA verification challenges persist at sites like Isfahan, with no de-escalation signals before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
NEW
$49,398 Vol.
NEW
$49,398 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$49,398 Vol.
NEW
$49,398 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by May 31. Iran's April 27 proposal, relayed via Pakistani mediators, prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire extension while explicitly postponing nuclear talks amid internal divisions on concessions. The US demands a 20-year moratorium and removal of Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade per recent IAEA reports—while Tehran offers at most a five-year suspension, insisting on its enrichment rights. IAEA verification challenges persist at sites like Isfahan, with no de-escalation signals before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$49,398End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by May 31. Iran's April 27 proposal, relayed via Pakistani mediators, prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire extension while explicitly postponing nuclear talks amid internal divisions on concessions. The US demands a 20-year moratorium and removal of Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade per recent IAEA reports—while Tehran offers at most a five-year suspension, insisting on its enrichment rights. IAEA verification challenges persist at sites like Isfahan, with no de-escalation signals before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$60,157End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of "No" on Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by May 31. Iran's April 27 proposal, relayed via Pakistani mediators, prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire extension while explicitly postponing nuclear talks amid internal divisions on concessions. The US demands a 20-year moratorium and removal of Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade per recent IAEA reports—while Tehran offers at most a five-year suspension, insisting on its enrichment rights. IAEA verification challenges persist at sites like Isfahan, with no de-escalation signals before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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