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icon for Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

icon for Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

$453,374 Vol.

Mar 14, 2026
Polymarket

$453,374 Vol.

Polymarket
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April 30

$257,406 Vol.

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May 31

$65,103 Vol.

14%

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June 30

$70,490 Vol.

24%

On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the maximum recorded value for six consecutive hourly data points in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks. The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.Iran's nationwide internet blackout, imposed February 28 amid US and Israeli airstrikes sparking war, persists into its 62nd day with connectivity at 2% of normal levels per NetBlocks, marking the longest recorded shutdown. The Supreme National Security Council approved the "Internet Pro" scheme on April 28, granting temporary global access to select businesses to mitigate daily economic losses of $30-80 million, following similar limited provisions for university professors earlier in April. Officials tie full public restoration to security conditions, with no timeline despite an April 8 ceasefire and stalled peace talks. Traders assess de-escalation signals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or intensified economic pressures as key catalysts for broader connectivity.

On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied.

1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed.

2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met.

- According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed.

- In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.
Volume
$453,374
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 3:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.
On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the maximum recorded value for six consecutive hourly data points in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks. The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.Iran's nationwide internet blackout, imposed February 28 amid US and Israeli airstrikes sparking war, persists into its 62nd day with connectivity at 2% of normal levels per NetBlocks, marking the longest recorded shutdown. The Supreme National Security Council approved the "Internet Pro" scheme on April 28, granting temporary global access to select businesses to mitigate daily economic losses of $30-80 million, following similar limited provisions for university professors earlier in April. Officials tie full public restoration to security conditions, with no timeline despite an April 8 ceasefire and stalled peace talks. Traders assess de-escalation signals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or intensified economic pressures as key catalysts for broader connectivity.

On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied.

1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed.

2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met.

- According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed.

- In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.
Volume
$453,374
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 3:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, the “Outage” annotation associated with the nationwide internet shutdown must cease to apply to newly published hourly data points for at least 24 consecutive hours in the “Traffic trends” chart for the last 4 weeks. During this same period, the same chart must show a clear increase in either Total bytes or HTTP bytes relative to the outage period, indicating a meaningful restoration of internet traffic. Only the first of the consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Internet Access restored in Iran by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 24%, followed by "May 31" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Internet Access restored in Iran by...?" has generated $453.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Internet Access restored in Iran by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Internet Access restored in Iran by...?" is "June 30" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Internet Access restored in Iran by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.