Election results from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill, show Democrat Analilia Mejia defeating Republican Joe Hathaway 60%-40%—a 20-point margin—with nearly all votes tallied, anchoring trader consensus at 95.7% implied probability for her 20-25% victory margin. Mejia, a progressive organizer backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC, overperformed Kamala Harris's district benchmark by about 12 points through strong turnout in diverse suburbs like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping several towns amid low special election participation that favored the Democratic base. Final canvass of provisional ballots, primarily from Republican-leaning Morris County precincts, could trim the lead slightly, but substantial shifts below 20% remain improbable absent major discrepancies or legal challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMejia 20-25% 95.7%
Mejia <20% 4.6%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$24,853 Vol.
$24,853 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
96%
Mejia <20%
8%
Other
1%
Mejia 20-25% 95.7%
Mejia <20% 4.6%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$24,853 Vol.
$24,853 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
Mejia 40%+
$980 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,577 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,480 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
$6,730 Vol.
96%
Mejia <20%
$5,562 Vol.
8%
Other
$865 Vol.
1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Election results from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill, show Democrat Analilia Mejia defeating Republican Joe Hathaway 60%-40%—a 20-point margin—with nearly all votes tallied, anchoring trader consensus at 95.7% implied probability for her 20-25% victory margin. Mejia, a progressive organizer backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC, overperformed Kamala Harris's district benchmark by about 12 points through strong turnout in diverse suburbs like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping several towns amid low special election participation that favored the Democratic base. Final canvass of provisional ballots, primarily from Republican-leaning Morris County precincts, could trim the lead slightly, but substantial shifts below 20% remain improbable absent major discrepancies or legal challenges.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$24,853End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Election results from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill, show Democrat Analilia Mejia defeating Republican Joe Hathaway 60%-40%—a 20-point margin—with nearly all votes tallied, anchoring trader consensus at 95.7% implied probability for her 20-25% victory margin. Mejia, a progressive organizer backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC, overperformed Kamala Harris's district benchmark by about 12 points through strong turnout in diverse suburbs like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping several towns amid low special election participation that favored the Democratic base. Final canvass of provisional ballots, primarily from Republican-leaning Morris County precincts, could trim the lead slightly, but substantial shifts below 20% remain improbable absent major discrepancies or legal challenges.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$24,853End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Election results from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill, show Democrat Analilia Mejia defeating Republican Joe Hathaway 60%-40%—a 20-point margin—with nearly all votes tallied, anchoring trader consensus at 95.7% implied probability for her 20-25% victory margin. Mejia, a progressive organizer backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC, overperformed Kamala Harris's district benchmark by about 12 points through strong turnout in diverse suburbs like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping several towns amid low special election participation that favored the Democratic base. Final canvass of provisional ballots, primarily from Republican-leaning Morris County precincts, could trim the lead slightly, but substantial shifts below 20% remain improbable absent major discrepancies or legal challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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