Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converge on a Paris high temperature of 18–19°C on May 10, driving trader consensus with 18°C at 42.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (22.9%) and 19°C (18.5%). This positioning reflects a weakening high-pressure ridge over Western Europe, shifting to cooler northerly flows after earlier weekly highs of 22–25°C amid variable spring patterns, aligning closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18.3°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Narrow ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty, with minimal convective shower risk to disrupt diurnal heating, though boundary-layer conditions add slight variability. Fresh model runs overnight and official Météo-France hourly observations will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 10?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 10?
18°C 44%
17°C 19.6%
19°C 20%
20°C 9%
NEW
$31,921 Vol.
NEW
$31,921 Vol.
May 10, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
20%
18°C
44%
19°C
20%
20°C
9%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 44%
17°C 19.6%
19°C 20%
20°C 9%
NEW
$31,921 Vol.
NEW
$31,921 Vol.
May 10, 2026
14°C or below
$2,365 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,363 Vol.
2%
16°C
$3,239 Vol.
3%
17°C
$3,852 Vol.
20%
18°C
$2,753 Vol.
44%
19°C
$2,678 Vol.
20%
20°C
$2,614 Vol.
9%
21°C
$4,053 Vol.
4%
22°C
$3,736 Vol.
1%
23°C
$3,571 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$1,855 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converge on a Paris high temperature of 18–19°C on May 10, driving trader consensus with 18°C at 42.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (22.9%) and 19°C (18.5%). This positioning reflects a weakening high-pressure ridge over Western Europe, shifting to cooler northerly flows after earlier weekly highs of 22–25°C amid variable spring patterns, aligning closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18.3°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Narrow ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty, with minimal convective shower risk to disrupt diurnal heating, though boundary-layer conditions add slight variability. Fresh model runs overnight and official Météo-France hourly observations will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$31,921End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converge on a Paris high temperature of 18–19°C on May 10, driving trader consensus with 18°C at 42.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (22.9%) and 19°C (18.5%). This positioning reflects a weakening high-pressure ridge over Western Europe, shifting to cooler northerly flows after earlier weekly highs of 22–25°C amid variable spring patterns, aligning closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18.3°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Narrow ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty, with minimal convective shower risk to disrupt diurnal heating, though boundary-layer conditions add slight variability. Fresh model runs overnight and official Météo-France hourly observations will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,921End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converge on a Paris high temperature of 18–19°C on May 10, driving trader consensus with 18°C at 42.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (22.9%) and 19°C (18.5%). This positioning reflects a weakening high-pressure ridge over Western Europe, shifting to cooler northerly flows after earlier weekly highs of 22–25°C amid variable spring patterns, aligning closely with the mid-May climatological average of 18.3°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Narrow ensemble spreads indicate low uncertainty, with minimal convective shower risk to disrupt diurnal heating, though boundary-layer conditions add slight variability. Fresh model runs overnight and official Météo-France hourly observations will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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