Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 10, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 15–18°C (top outcomes at 21% for 17°C, 20.5% for 15°C) due to conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing a spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. AEMET's latest guidance points to a maximum near 19°C under overcast skies and 80% rain probability, cooler than the May climatological average of 22°C, as a polar air mass brings instability and reduced insolation. Key differentiators include precipitation timing—earlier clearing favors 18°C+, while prolonged fronts support 15–16°C— with new model updates expected every 12 hours potentially shifting odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 10?
16°C 44%
17°C 24%
18°C 13%
15°C 13%
NEW
$24,752 Vol.
NEW
$24,752 Vol.
May 10, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
6%
15°C
13%
16°C
44%
17°C
24%
18°C
13%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 44%
17°C 24%
18°C 13%
15°C 13%
NEW
$24,752 Vol.
NEW
$24,752 Vol.
May 10, 2026
13°C or below
$2,262 Vol.
1%
14°C
$2,301 Vol.
6%
15°C
$3,595 Vol.
13%
16°C
$2,884 Vol.
44%
17°C
$1,738 Vol.
24%
18°C
$2,319 Vol.
13%
19°C
$2,408 Vol.
3%
20°C
$2,779 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,921 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,533 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,011 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 10, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 15–18°C (top outcomes at 21% for 17°C, 20.5% for 15°C) due to conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing a spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. AEMET's latest guidance points to a maximum near 19°C under overcast skies and 80% rain probability, cooler than the May climatological average of 22°C, as a polar air mass brings instability and reduced insolation. Key differentiators include precipitation timing—earlier clearing favors 18°C+, while prolonged fronts support 15–16°C— with new model updates expected every 12 hours potentially shifting odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$24,752End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 10, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 15–18°C (top outcomes at 21% for 17°C, 20.5% for 15°C) due to conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing a spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. AEMET's latest guidance points to a maximum near 19°C under overcast skies and 80% rain probability, cooler than the May climatological average of 22°C, as a polar air mass brings instability and reduced insolation. Key differentiators include precipitation timing—earlier clearing favors 18°C+, while prolonged fronts support 15–16°C— with new model updates expected every 12 hours potentially shifting odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$24,752End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 10, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 15–18°C (top outcomes at 21% for 17°C, 20.5% for 15°C) due to conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing a spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. AEMET's latest guidance points to a maximum near 19°C under overcast skies and 80% rain probability, cooler than the May climatological average of 22°C, as a polar air mass brings instability and reduced insolation. Key differentiators include precipitation timing—earlier clearing favors 18°C+, while prolonged fronts support 15–16°C— with new model updates expected every 12 hours potentially shifting odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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