Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Cape Town's May 10 high temperature, with SAWS and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF converging on 13–15°C amid lingering effects of a strong cold front that swept the Western Cape on May 7–8, ushering in cool Atlantic air masses, southerly winds, and persistent low-level stratus cloud. This setup suppresses daytime heating below May's climatological average of 20°C, as seen in recent observations of 20°C maxima dropping post-frontal. Differentiation among leading outcomes hinges on model disagreements over boundary-layer mixing and cloud dissipation rates, with partial clearing potentially pushing toward 15°C or prolonged overcast favoring 13°C. New SAWS updates and model runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 10?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 10?
15°C 39%
14°C 24%
13°C 11%
16°C 5.4%
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
20%
14°C
24%
15°C
32%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 39%
14°C 24%
13°C 11%
16°C 5.4%
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
8°C or below
$571 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$180 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$582 Vol.
1%
12°C
$343 Vol.
3%
13°C
$121 Vol.
20%
14°C
$201 Vol.
24%
15°C
$136 Vol.
32%
16°C
$136 Vol.
5%
17°C
$277 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$356 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Cape Town's May 10 high temperature, with SAWS and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF converging on 13–15°C amid lingering effects of a strong cold front that swept the Western Cape on May 7–8, ushering in cool Atlantic air masses, southerly winds, and persistent low-level stratus cloud. This setup suppresses daytime heating below May's climatological average of 20°C, as seen in recent observations of 20°C maxima dropping post-frontal. Differentiation among leading outcomes hinges on model disagreements over boundary-layer mixing and cloud dissipation rates, with partial clearing potentially pushing toward 15°C or prolonged overcast favoring 13°C. New SAWS updates and model runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$3,057End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Cape Town's May 10 high temperature, with SAWS and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF converging on 13–15°C amid lingering effects of a strong cold front that swept the Western Cape on May 7–8, ushering in cool Atlantic air masses, southerly winds, and persistent low-level stratus cloud. This setup suppresses daytime heating below May's climatological average of 20°C, as seen in recent observations of 20°C maxima dropping post-frontal. Differentiation among leading outcomes hinges on model disagreements over boundary-layer mixing and cloud dissipation rates, with partial clearing potentially pushing toward 15°C or prolonged overcast favoring 13°C. New SAWS updates and model runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,057End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Cape Town's May 10 high temperature, with SAWS and ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF converging on 13–15°C amid lingering effects of a strong cold front that swept the Western Cape on May 7–8, ushering in cool Atlantic air masses, southerly winds, and persistent low-level stratus cloud. This setup suppresses daytime heating below May's climatological average of 20°C, as seen in recent observations of 20°C maxima dropping post-frontal. Differentiation among leading outcomes hinges on model disagreements over boundary-layer mixing and cloud dissipation rates, with partial clearing potentially pushing toward 15°C or prolonged overcast favoring 13°C. New SAWS updates and model runs expected overnight could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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