**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 32°C (40.5%) and 33°C (32.5%) as Beijing's highest temperature on May 10, reflecting China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts of daytime highs around 32–33°C amid North China's first heatwave of 2026.** This positioning stems from yesterday's CMA alert highlighting below-average rainfall over the next 10 days, persistent high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and light northwest winds (under 12 km/h), and strong solar insolation driving rapid daytime heating from overnight lows near 15°C. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering near these values, though minor divergences arise from urban heat island effects in Beijing's official measurement stations and potential afternoon cloud cover. With 31°C at 19.5%, traders price in low risk of cooler outcomes absent unexpected cold fronts; resolution hinges on CMA's post-midnight UTC daily maximum report, expected May 11.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 10?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 10?
32°C 43%
33°C 33%
31°C 20%
34°C 6%
NEW
$32,573 Vol.
NEW
$32,573 Vol.
May 10, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
20%
32°C
43%
33°C
33%
34°C
6%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 43%
33°C 33%
31°C 20%
34°C 6%
NEW
$32,573 Vol.
NEW
$32,573 Vol.
May 10, 2026
29°C or below
$6,726 Vol.
1%
30°C
$6,506 Vol.
1%
31°C
$2,301 Vol.
20%
32°C
$1,826 Vol.
43%
33°C
$2,706 Vol.
33%
34°C
$3,423 Vol.
6%
35°C
$2,681 Vol.
1%
36°C
$2,915 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,140 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$1,901 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$810 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 32°C (40.5%) and 33°C (32.5%) as Beijing's highest temperature on May 10, reflecting China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts of daytime highs around 32–33°C amid North China's first heatwave of 2026.** This positioning stems from yesterday's CMA alert highlighting below-average rainfall over the next 10 days, persistent high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and light northwest winds (under 12 km/h), and strong solar insolation driving rapid daytime heating from overnight lows near 15°C. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering near these values, though minor divergences arise from urban heat island effects in Beijing's official measurement stations and potential afternoon cloud cover. With 31°C at 19.5%, traders price in low risk of cooler outcomes absent unexpected cold fronts; resolution hinges on CMA's post-midnight UTC daily maximum report, expected May 11.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$32,573End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 32°C (40.5%) and 33°C (32.5%) as Beijing's highest temperature on May 10, reflecting China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts of daytime highs around 32–33°C amid North China's first heatwave of 2026.** This positioning stems from yesterday's CMA alert highlighting below-average rainfall over the next 10 days, persistent high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and light northwest winds (under 12 km/h), and strong solar insolation driving rapid daytime heating from overnight lows near 15°C. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering near these values, though minor divergences arise from urban heat island effects in Beijing's official measurement stations and potential afternoon cloud cover. With 31°C at 19.5%, traders price in low risk of cooler outcomes absent unexpected cold fronts; resolution hinges on CMA's post-midnight UTC daily maximum report, expected May 11.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,573End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 32°C (40.5%) and 33°C (32.5%) as Beijing's highest temperature on May 10, reflecting China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts of daytime highs around 32–33°C amid North China's first heatwave of 2026.** This positioning stems from yesterday's CMA alert highlighting below-average rainfall over the next 10 days, persistent high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and light northwest winds (under 12 km/h), and strong solar insolation driving rapid daytime heating from overnight lows near 15°C. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering near these values, though minor divergences arise from urban heat island effects in Beijing's official measurement stations and potential afternoon cloud cover. With 31°C at 19.5%, traders price in low risk of cooler outcomes absent unexpected cold fronts; resolution hinges on CMA's post-midnight UTC daily maximum report, expected May 11.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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