Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45% probability for Ankara's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 10, with nearby outcomes at 21°C (23%) and 23°C (23.5%), reflecting the latest numerical weather prediction model runs from ECMWF and GFS, alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance, which project peak daytime highs in the 21–23°C range under stable continental high-pressure influence. Recent observations—21°C high on May 9 and 22°C on May 8—reinforce this positioning after cooler early-May readings around 19°C or below, driven by a departing weak cold front and typical spring diurnal heating in Ankara's semi-arid steppe climate. Inherent forecast uncertainty (±1–2°C) stems from model ensemble spread and potential cloud cover variations; watch MGM's evening update and overnight 00z ECMWF run for shifts ahead of resolution. Historical May averages hover near 22°C, aligning with current trader sentiment backed by real capital.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 10?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 10?
22°C 45%
21°C 26%
23°C 24%
20°C 7%
$26,311 Vol.
$26,311 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C
26%
22°C
45%
23°C
24%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 45%
21°C 26%
23°C 24%
20°C 7%
$26,311 Vol.
$26,311 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C
26%
22°C
45%
23°C
24%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45% probability for Ankara's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 10, with nearby outcomes at 21°C (23%) and 23°C (23.5%), reflecting the latest numerical weather prediction model runs from ECMWF and GFS, alongside Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance, which project peak daytime highs in the 21–23°C range under stable continental high-pressure influence. Recent observations—21°C high on May 9 and 22°C on May 8—reinforce this positioning after cooler early-May readings around 19°C or below, driven by a departing weak cold front and typical spring diurnal heating in Ankara's semi-arid steppe climate. Inherent forecast uncertainty (±1–2°C) stems from model ensemble spread and potential cloud cover variations; watch MGM's evening update and overnight 00z ECMWF run for shifts ahead of resolution. Historical May averages hover near 22°C, aligning with current trader sentiment backed by real capital.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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