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Climate & Science·Screwworm

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

icon for Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
Climate & Science·Screwworm

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

NEW
Polymarket

$677 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for June 30

June 30

$354 Vol.

42%

icon for August 30

August 30

$323 Vol.

52%

icon for October 31

October 31

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for December 31

December 31

$0 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent detections of New World screwworm (NWS), confirmed by USDA APHIS, show rapid northward expansion from Mexico, with the first U.S. case in a Zavala County, Texas calf on June 3, 2026, followed by additional livestock infestations in La Salle, Gillespie, and other Texas counties plus a dog in Lea County, New Mexico. Ongoing sterile insect releases, expanded surveillance zones, and import restrictions aim to contain the parasite, whose larvae infest wounds in cattle, goats, and other livestock. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether NWS will establish in livestock outside Texas before resolution criteria are met, driven by model consensus on migration patterns, historical eradication success since the 1960s, and upcoming weekly APHIS case updates that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$677
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent detections of New World screwworm (NWS), confirmed by USDA APHIS, show rapid northward expansion from Mexico, with the first U.S. case in a Zavala County, Texas calf on June 3, 2026, followed by additional livestock infestations in La Salle, Gillespie, and other Texas counties plus a dog in Lea County, New Mexico. Ongoing sterile insect releases, expanded surveillance zones, and import restrictions aim to contain the parasite, whose larvae infest wounds in cattle, goats, and other livestock. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether NWS will establish in livestock outside Texas before resolution criteria are met, driven by model consensus on migration patterns, historical eradication success since the 1960s, and upcoming weekly APHIS case updates that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$677
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 53%, followed by "August 30" at 52%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 10, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." is "December 31" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 30" at 52%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.