Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing no credible impact risks this year among tracked near-Earth objects, with even the tiniest probabilities (under 0.004%) tied to objects too small for 100kt energy release. NASA's fireball database logs frequent small bolides—over two dozen in 2026 so far, amid a noted uptick in reports—but none exceeding 0.4kt, aligning with historical rarity of >100kt airbursts like Chelyabinsk (440kt in 2013), estimated at once per decade. Realistic challenges include an undetected ~15-meter bolide on collision course, evading pre-discovery surveys, though ongoing Scout system scans and May close approaches (e.g., 2026 HN1 at 110m diameter, safely distant) continue refining odds through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing no credible impact risks this year among tracked near-Earth objects, with even the tiniest probabilities (under 0.004%) tied to objects too small for 100kt energy release. NASA's fireball database logs frequent small bolides—over two dozen in 2026 so far, amid a noted uptick in reports—but none exceeding 0.4kt, aligning with historical rarity of >100kt airbursts like Chelyabinsk (440kt in 2013), estimated at once per decade. Realistic challenges include an undetected ~15-meter bolide on collision course, evading pre-discovery surveys, though ongoing Scout system scans and May close approaches (e.g., 2026 HN1 at 110m diameter, safely distant) continue refining odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,214End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing no credible impact risks this year among tracked near-Earth objects, with even the tiniest probabilities (under 0.004%) tied to objects too small for 100kt energy release. NASA's fireball database logs frequent small bolides—over two dozen in 2026 so far, amid a noted uptick in reports—but none exceeding 0.4kt, aligning with historical rarity of >100kt airbursts like Chelyabinsk (440kt in 2013), estimated at once per decade. Realistic challenges include an undetected ~15-meter bolide on collision course, evading pre-discovery surveys, though ongoing Scout system scans and May close approaches (e.g., 2026 HN1 at 110m diameter, safely distant) continue refining odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,214End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 95% implied probability for a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing no credible impact risks this year among tracked near-Earth objects, with even the tiniest probabilities (under 0.004%) tied to objects too small for 100kt energy release. NASA's fireball database logs frequent small bolides—over two dozen in 2026 so far, amid a noted uptick in reports—but none exceeding 0.4kt, aligning with historical rarity of >100kt airbursts like Chelyabinsk (440kt in 2013), estimated at once per decade. Realistic challenges include an undetected ~15-meter bolide on collision course, evading pre-discovery surveys, though ongoing Scout system scans and May close approaches (e.g., 2026 HN1 at 110m diameter, safely distant) continue refining odds through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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