NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$104,815 Vol.
$104,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$104,815 Vol.
$104,815 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$104,815End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$104,815End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system identifies no credible threats of a 1-megaton bolide airburst or impact in 2026, listing only two minuscule objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with impact probabilities below 4e-5 and maximum energy of 0.12 megatons, far short of the threshold. Trader consensus at 95.2% for "No" reflects this data alongside the low historical frequency of such events, roughly once per century for ~25-meter objects capable of 1-megaton yields, as seen in analogs like Chelyabinsk (0.5 megatons in 2013). First-quarter 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton event over Ohio, released under 0.1 kilotons. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small NEO evading global infrasound networks, with ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end providing key monitoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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