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Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

icon for CA-04 Primary Winners
Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

$22,729 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$22,729 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,964 Vol.

98%

Eric Jones

$4,571 Vol.

64%

Heath Fulkerson

$315 Vol.

25%

John Wesley Tyler

$810 Vol.

10%

Trevor Merrell

$6,994 Vol.

10%

Sharon Brown

$1,621 Vol.

7%

Mandy Ghusar

$744 Vol.

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Vol.

39%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) leads Polymarket trader consensus at 97% implied probability to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, with challenger Eric Jones (D) at 78%, reflecting a fragmented Republican field of six candidates unlikely to consolidate support amid low fundraising. Recent FEC reports show Jones slightly out-raising Thompson through March 31—$3.2 million versus $3 million, bolstered by self-funding—yet Thompson holds advantages in endorsements from the Democratic Party of California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, and local officials. On April 30, Article One super PAC allocated $30,000 to aid Thompson against Jones's progressive bid. Early voting begins May 4 in this solidly Democratic district, rated safe for Democrats by Cook Political Report and others, where GOP vote-splitting favors both Democrats proceeding to November.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,729
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) leads Polymarket trader consensus at 97% implied probability to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, with challenger Eric Jones (D) at 78%, reflecting a fragmented Republican field of six candidates unlikely to consolidate support amid low fundraising. Recent FEC reports show Jones slightly out-raising Thompson through March 31—$3.2 million versus $3 million, bolstered by self-funding—yet Thompson holds advantages in endorsements from the Democratic Party of California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, and local officials. On April 30, Article One super PAC allocated $30,000 to aid Thompson against Jones's progressive bid. Early voting begins May 4 in this solidly Democratic district, rated safe for Democrats by Cook Political Report and others, where GOP vote-splitting favors both Democrats proceeding to November.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,729
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 98%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 64%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04 Primary Winners" has generated $22.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Primary Winners" is "Mike Thompson" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 64%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.