Polymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank Rate at the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, mirroring the MPC's 8-1 vote to hold at 3.75% on April 30 amid balancing inflation risks against emerging economic slack. March CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3%—up from 3.0%—driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, with forecasts signaling further Q2 rises and potential second-round effects, boosting 30.5% odds for a 25 basis points hike as echoed by Chief Economist Huw Pill's dissent. February GDP growth of 0.5% underscores labor market resilience, while negligible cut pricing reflects trader caution. Key catalyst: April CPI on May 20.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
No change 65%
25 bps increase 31%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$67,546 Vol.
$67,546 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
65%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 65%
25 bps increase 31%
50+ bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$67,546 Vol.
$67,546 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
65%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank Rate at the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, mirroring the MPC's 8-1 vote to hold at 3.75% on April 30 amid balancing inflation risks against emerging economic slack. March CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3%—up from 3.0%—driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, with forecasts signaling further Q2 rises and potential second-round effects, boosting 30.5% odds for a 25 basis points hike as echoed by Chief Economist Huw Pill's dissent. February GDP growth of 0.5% underscores labor market resilience, while negligible cut pricing reflects trader caution. Key catalyst: April CPI on May 20.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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