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Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

icon for AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jay Feely 69%

Joseph Chaplik 23.9%

Matt Gress 1.2%

Derrick Gallego 1.1%

Polymarket

$403,936 Vol.

Jay Feely 69%

Joseph Chaplik 23.9%

Matt Gress 1.2%

Derrick Gallego 1.1%

Polymarket

$403,936 Vol.

Jay Feely

$7,426 Vol.

69%

Joseph Chaplik

$9,283 Vol.

24%

Matt Gress

$48,794 Vol.

1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,756 Vol.

1%

Jason Duey

$3,082 Vol.

1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,579 Vol.

1%

John Trobough

$3,515 Vol.

<1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$9,628 Vol.

<1%

Todd Graham

$7,835 Vol.

<1%

Kari Lake

$6,822 Vol.

<1%

Gina Swoboda

$4,405 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$61,426 Vol.

<1%

Paul Reevs

$222,563 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Sowers

$10,823 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads Polymarket trader consensus at 71% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his dominant fundraising—$1.8 million raised and $1.25 million cash on hand as of late March—enabling a strong ad blitz in the final stretch of this open seat race. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, at 23.9%, trails despite a late-April internal poll claiming a double-digit lead among decided voters, where undecideds exceed 50%; his resignation from the legislature in early March freed him full-time but pales against Feely's resources and shared Trump endorsement after Gina Swoboda's February withdrawal for secretary of state. High undecideds and Feely's name recognition from sports bolster his frontrunner status in this toss-up general election district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$403,936
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads Polymarket trader consensus at 71% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his dominant fundraising—$1.8 million raised and $1.25 million cash on hand as of late March—enabling a strong ad blitz in the final stretch of this open seat race. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, at 23.9%, trails despite a late-April internal poll claiming a double-digit lead among decided voters, where undecideds exceed 50%; his resignation from the legislature in early March freed him full-time but pales against Feely's resources and shared Trump endorsement after Gina Swoboda's February withdrawal for secretary of state. High undecideds and Feely's name recognition from sports bolster his frontrunner status in this toss-up general election district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$403,936
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 69%, followed by "Joseph Chaplik" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $403.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jay Feely" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joseph Chaplik" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.