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icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politics·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politics·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$159 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for April 30

April 30

$50 Vol.

26%

icon for May 15

May 15

$27 Vol.

50%

icon for May 31

May 31

$82 Vol.

52%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on another Canadian MP crossing the floor reflects a recent surge in defections bolstering Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority Liberal government, with Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's switch on April 8 leaving the party one seat shy of a majority after April 13 byelections. This marks the fifth such move in five months—including Matt Jeneroux in February and NDP's Lori Idlout in March—fueled by reported Conservative caucus dissatisfaction with leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal recruitment efforts. No crossings have occurred in the past three weeks despite speculation, such as hot-mic comments from MPs like Billy Morin. Key factors include ongoing leadership tensions, parliamentary math, and calls for by-election rules on floor-crossers, with no major events scheduled imminently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on another Canadian MP crossing the floor reflects a recent surge in defections bolstering Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority Liberal government, with Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's switch on April 8 leaving the party one seat shy of a majority after April 13 byelections. This marks the fifth such move in five months—including Matt Jeneroux in February and NDP's Lori Idlout in March—fueled by reported Conservative caucus dissatisfaction with leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal recruitment efforts. No crossings have occurred in the past three weeks despite speculation, such as hot-mic comments from MPs like Billy Morin. Key factors include ongoing leadership tensions, parliamentary math, and calls for by-election rules on floor-crossers, with no major events scheduled imminently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 52%, followed by "May 15" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is "May 31" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 15" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.