Recent Pentagon releases of declassified UAP files under President Trump's February 2026 directive have fueled trader interest, with the first tranche on May 8 and a second on May 22 detailing decades-old sightings of orbs, discs, and fireballs. These batches, hosted on a dedicated government site with more expected on a rolling basis, include eyewitness accounts and imagery but offer no official confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology, aligning with experts' assessments of mundane explanations. This ongoing transparency push has lifted implied probabilities modestly—to around 16% by year-end on Polymarket—yet underscores historical patterns where disclosures rarely yield definitive statements, keeping near-term odds low amid competitive dynamics from unresolved cases. Upcoming file drops and any high-level comments could serve as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWhite House launches 'Aliens.gov' website linking aliens to immigration crackdown
December 31 dips to 14%2%
The Trump administration launched a website titled 'Aliens.gov' that controversially framed 'aliens' as undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials, which confused public discourse and likely dampened market enthusiasm for official alien confirmation.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
December 31 rises to 16%2%
The Trump administration launched a website using 'alien' terminology to track immigration arrests, which was widely mocked and seen as a political move unrelated to extraterrestrial disclosure, contributing to market skepticism.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
June 30 dips to 1%1%
The Trump administration launched a website named Aliens.gov that framed 'aliens' as undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials, which was widely mocked and seen as a political move unrelated to UFO disclosure, dampening market enthusiasm for alien confirmation by near-term dates.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
December 31 rises to 16%2%
The Trump administration launched a website titled 'Aliens.gov' that used alien imagery to promote immigration enforcement, which was widely mocked and did not provide any confirmation of extraterrestrial life, contributing to market uncertainty.
White House launches Aliens.gov website fueling alien existence speculation
The Trump administration registered and launched Aliens.gov, a government website claiming aliens walk among us, which intensified public speculation but lacked official confirmation, causing mixed market reactions.
Trump administration launches 'Aliens.gov' website linking aliens to undocumented immigrants
May 31 dips to 0%1%
The White House launched a controversial website framing 'aliens' as undocumented immigrants rather than extraterrestrials, which was widely mocked and contributed to market skepticism, particularly reducing prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
President Trump publicly references extraterrestrial matters during cabinet meeting
President Trump mentioned "extraterrestrial things" in a media-open cabinet meeting, renewing public and market interest in potential confirmation. However, no definitive statement confirming alien existence was made, so market prices showed only modest movement.
President Trump references 'extraterrestrial things' in cabinet meeting
May 31 dips to 0%2%
President Trump mentioned 'extraterrestrial things' during a cabinet meeting open to media, sparking renewed speculation but without definitive confirmation. This statement had limited impact on market prices, which remained low for near-term outcomes.
White House launches alien-themed website focusing on immigration enforcement
September 30 dips to 8%1%
The launch of an alien-themed website by the White House, which focused on immigration rather than extraterrestrials, was seen as a political move and led to skepticism, impacting market sentiment and depressing prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Trump posts AI‑generated alien image on Truth Social
December 31 rises to 14%1%
Trump shared an AI‑generated image of himself with an alien in a Truth Social post, reigniting speculation and causing a modest uptick in the “December 31” price on 2026‑05‑28 before the market again retreated.
Trump says administration is releasing many extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 20%4%
During a televised cabinet meeting, Trump told reporters the administration was "releasing a lot of information" on extraterrestrial matters. The remark reignited optimism, causing the market to jump from 16 % to 20 % for the December‑31 outcome on May 28.
President Trump hints at upcoming UFO file releases and extraterrestrial disclosures
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Trump's public statements about releasing more UFO files and extraterrestrial information maintained market interest but did not provide new evidence, leading to mixed market reactions and price fluctuations.
President Trump references ongoing release of extraterrestrial-related information
During a cabinet meeting, President Trump mentioned that the government is releasing a lot of information related to extraterrestrial matters, sustaining some market interest but without definitive confirmation, keeping the December 31 outcome price stable around 14%.
President Trump shares AI-generated alien-themed posts on social media
December 31 rises to 16%2%
President Trump posted AI-generated images depicting himself with aliens, which attracted media attention but did not constitute official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, contributing to market uncertainty and minor price volatility.
President Trump references extraterrestrial matters in cabinet meeting
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Trump's public mention of 'extraterrestrial things' during a cabinet meeting briefly renewed market interest but did not constitute definitive confirmation, keeping probabilities stable.
Pentagon reiterates no evidence of extraterrestrial technology despite extensive UFO files
May 31 dips to 0%3%
Pentagon officials and experts reiterated that despite the extensive declassified files and public interest, no verifiable evidence of alien technology or contact has been found, which contributed to declining prices for earlier resolution dates like May 31 and June 30.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO videos and testimony
May 31 drops to 0%6%
A second tranche of UFO files was released, continuing transparency efforts but again providing no conclusive evidence of alien life, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price declines for earlier confirmation dates.
Second batch of US UFO files released with no confirmation of alien life
May 31 dips to 0%1%
A second release of declassified UFO files occurred, again without definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Pentagon and Trump clarify UFO files do not confirm extraterrestrial life
May 31 dips to 0%1%
Following the May 22 release, the Pentagon and President Trump stated the documents do not provide confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life, reinforcing market skepticism and price drops for short-term outcomes.
U.S. government releases second batch of UFO and extraterrestrial documents
The Pentagon released a second batch of declassified UFO and extraterrestrial documents following the initial release, continuing the transparency initiative but without confirming extraterrestrial life.
Second tranche of UFO files released amid mixed public reactions
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Following the initial release, a second batch of UFO files was published, sustaining public and market interest but without new evidence of alien life, contributing to price fluctuations in the December 31 and September 30 outcomes.
Second release of UFO files by U.S. government amid mixed public reactions
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Following the initial May release, a second tranche of UFO files was published, continuing transparency efforts but failing to provide definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, further dampening market confidence in near-term outcomes.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO videos and testimony, reiterates no evidence of aliens
June 30 dips to 3%2%
The Pentagon released additional UFO files and first-hand accounts but reiterated that there is no evidence suggesting extraterrestrial origin, which contributed to declines in short-term market prices for confirmation by June 30 and September 30.
Pentagon and Department of War confirm ongoing rolling release of UFO files
December 31 dips to 16%3%
Officials confirmed that additional UFO files would be released on a rolling basis, but no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life was presented. This tempered market enthusiasm, with prices stabilizing or declining for near-term outcomes while December 31 remained relatively higher.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO files with no alien confirmation
September 30 dips to 8%4%
A second tranche of UFO files was released by the Pentagon, again without evidence of extraterrestrial life, reinforcing skepticism and causing further price declines for near-term market outcomes.
Second wave of UAP files published on PURSUE site
December 31 rises to 16%2%
A second batch of UAP files was released on May 22, containing additional historical records but still no conclusive proof. The market reacted with a modest rebound for the December‑31 outcome (up to 16%) before settling back, showing that each release briefly revived optimism.
Second tranche of declassified UFO files released by Pentagon
Following the initial May 8 release, the Pentagon published additional files including photos and reports, maintaining transparency but without definitive proof of aliens, contributing to continued low market prices for near-term outcomes.
Pentagon releases second tranche of UFO videos and testimony
September 30 dips to 9%3%
A second release of UFO videos and documents by the Pentagon provided additional data but no definitive proof of extraterrestrial origin, maintaining market skepticism and contributing to price declines for earlier confirmation dates.
Pentagon releases second batch of UFO videos and testimony with no evidence of aliens
December 31 dips to 8%2%
The Pentagon released additional UFO files and videos but reiterated there was no evidence suggesting extraterrestrial origin, reinforcing market doubts about imminent official confirmation.
Pentagon emphasizes public can 'make up their own minds' on UFO files
The Pentagon stated that the newly released UFO files are for public interpretation and contain no confirmation of alien technology, which maintained low market prices for short-term outcomes like June 30 at 3%.
Pentagon reiterates no evidence of extraterrestrial origin in released UFO files
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Alongside the second release, the Pentagon reiterated that there is no evidence to suggest any of the objects or testimonies indicate extraterrestrial life. This statement reinforced skepticism in the market, contributing to the decline in short-term outcome prices.
Pentagon posts second set of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 14%4%
A second batch of UAP documents was posted to the PURSUE site. The follow‑up release dampened speculation that a definitive extraterrestrial statement was imminent, contributing to the slide of the “December 31” odds to the low‑teens by late May.
Pentagon releases second tranche of UFO videos and testimony with no alien proof
December 31 dips to 16%2%
A second release of UFO files included videos and eyewitness accounts but reiterated no evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to further declines in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Second batch of declassified UFO files posted, still no alien confirmation
June 30 drops to 3%7%
A second tranche of UAP documents was posted to PURSUE. Like the first release, the batch presented only unresolved cases, further dampening optimism for any confirmation before June 30, pushing the “June 30” odds down to 3 % by 2026‑05‑25.
Pentagon spokesperson announces more UFO documents are being processed for release
May 31 dips to 2%1%
Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announced that additional UFO-related documents are actively being processed for publication, signaling ongoing disclosure efforts. This maintained moderate market interest but did not significantly increase probabilities for near-term confirmation.
Trump shares AI-generated alien images on social media
December 31 dips to 16%1%
President Trump posted AI-generated images depicting himself with aliens, which fueled public speculation and briefly influenced market sentiment, though it did not constitute official confirmation.
Pentagon spokesperson announces more UFO documents are being processed for release
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Sean Parnell, Pentagon spokesperson, announced on social media that additional UFO-related documents were actively being processed for publication, signaling ongoing transparency efforts and sustaining market interest in potential future disclosures.
President Trump shares AI-generated alien images on social media
May 31 drops to 0%6%
President Trump posted AI-generated images depicting himself with aliens on his official social media account, reinforcing public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. While symbolic, this event kept the topic in public discourse and influenced market sentiment for near-term confirmation.
Pentagon says released UFO files show no alien evidence
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell posted on X that the recently released documents contain no evidence of extraterrestrial life, underscoring the lack of a definitive statement and pushing the “June 30” outcome down to the low single‑digit range.
Market reacts to congressional and Pentagon delays in releasing demanded UAP videos
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Despite congressional deadlines, the Pentagon missed the April 14 deadline to release 46 specific UAP videos demanded by Rep. Luna, causing market prices for near-term outcomes to decline due to perceived delays and lack of definitive disclosure.
U.S. announces $6 million aid package for Cuba amid energy blockade
May 31 dips to 1%1%
On May 15, the State Department announced an additional $6 million humanitarian aid for Cuba as the island faced an energy blockade. The announcement was seen as a concession that reduced immediate pressure for a dramatic U.S. disclosure, contributing to the sharp drop of the May 31 contract to 1% and keeping June 30 at 2%.
Market reaches low of 6% on Iran war economic disruption
May 31 drops to 1%5%
The market hit a low of 6% on May 15 due to ongoing economic disruption from the Iran war, including surging gasoline prices and global oil supply concerns.
Scientific community reviews released UFO files, finds no evidence of alien technology
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Astrophysicists and scientists reviewed the newly released UFO files and concluded that the materials showed no evidence of artificial or alien origin, dampening market enthusiasm and causing prices for June 30 and May 31 outcomes to drop to near zero.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announces Pentagon will release additional UFO videos soon
September 30 dips to 7%3%
Rep. Luna publicly stated that the Pentagon would release more UFO videos, maintaining some market interest but insufficient to reverse the downward trend in near-term outcome prices.
AARO says released UFO files contain no alien evidence
December 31 drops to 6%6%
AARO released a statement that, after reviewing the newly published files, it had found no evidence of extraterrestrial technology. The clarification dampened expectations and drove the December‑31 probability down to a low of 6 % on May 15.
Market sentiment cools on UFO disclosure as Pentagon files fail to provide evidence
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Following the initial release of UFO files in April, the lack of any definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life led to a steady decline in the market price for all outcomes as traders realized the government was not moving toward a formal confirmation.
NASA updates 2026 mission plans amid ongoing space exploration
December 31 dips to 14%4%
NASA announced updates to its 2026 mission plans, including the Lunabotics Challenge and agency realignment, which maintained public interest in space but did not provide evidence of extraterrestrial life, contributing to a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 18% to 14%.
Trump publicly discusses extraterrestrial matters during cabinet meeting
President Trump mentioned releasing information related to extraterrestrial life during a cabinet meeting, reinforcing market interest and maintaining elevated prices for the December 31 outcome despite no new definitive evidence.
Pentagon announces end of Stars and Stripes ‘woke’ content overhaul
September 30 drops to 6%7%
The Pentagon’s move to tighten control over its own military newspaper signaled a shift toward tighter information management, further dampening market optimism and pushing the September‑30 price down to 6% and the December‑31 price to 14%.
U.S. and Venezuela explore restoring diplomatic relations after Maduro’s capture
A joint statement on May 12 reported that the United States and Venezuela were beginning talks to restore diplomatic ties following the U.S. capture of Maduro. The development suggested a possible de‑escalation of the broader geopolitical climate, reinforcing traders’ belief that a near‑term alien‑confirmation announcement was unlikely, further depressing all contracts.
Federal judge blocks Pentagon policy limiting reporters’ access
May 31 dips to 1%2%
A court ruling that forced the Pentagon to restore press credentials reduced speculation that the agency would soon make a definitive alien‑existence statement, contributing to a sharp drop in all outcomes; the May‑31 price fell from 3% to 1% and the September‑30 price from 13% to 6%.
President Trump announces UFO‑transparency initiative and three‑day Russia‑Ukraine ceasefire
December 31 rises to 20%2%
Trump’s public pledge to increase UFO transparency and his social‑media post urging the public to draw its own conclusions revived hopes of an official alien acknowledgment, briefly raising the December‑31 price to 20% before a rapid decline the next day as analysts questioned the substance of the promise.
Pentagon releases new UFO files with no evidence of alien technology
December 31 dips to 19%2%
The Pentagon began releasing new files on UFOs but stated there was no evidence confirming alien technology, tempering market enthusiasm and causing a slight price decline for the December 31 outcome from 21% to 19%.
US military aircraft encounters 'super-hot' orb during nighttime mission, Pentagon files reveal
December 31 dips to 18%1%
Among the released files was a detailed report of a 2025 military encounter with a 'super-hot' orb exhibiting unusual behavior, fueling public intrigue but without official confirmation of extraterrestrial origin, impacting market sentiment for December 31.
Pentagon begins releasing first batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
Following President Trump's directive, the Pentagon released 162 declassified files including documents, photos, videos, and memos related to UFOs and UAPs, spanning decades. Despite the transparency effort, officials stated no evidence confirmed extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed public reactions and moderate market impact.
Pentagon releases first batch of declassified UFO files with no alien confirmation
May 31 drops to 0%6%
The Department of War and other agencies released 162 declassified files on UFOs and UAPs as directed by President Trump, but the documents contained no conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a sharp drop in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Pentagon releases first wave of declassified UAP files via PURSUE
December 31 rises to 18%2%
The Pentagon launched the PURSUE website and released 162 previously classified UAP documents, including Apollo‑era photos. The release temporarily lifted optimism for a December‑31 confirmation, pushing the “December 31” price to 18 % on May 9 before a rapid decline.
Pentagon releases first tranche of declassified UFO files under Trump directive
December 31 dips to 16%3%
The Pentagon released 162 previously classified files on UFOs and unidentified aerial phenomena, fulfilling Trump's February order. The files contained no definitive proof of extraterrestrial life, causing mixed market reactions and a slight price decline for near-term outcomes.
Pentagon releases over 160 declassified UFO files dating back decades
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
The Pentagon and Department of War released a large tranche of declassified documents related to UFOs and UAPs, including military reports and NASA mission records, but found no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a spike then partial retreat in market prices.
Pentagon releases additional UFO files amid public and scientific scrutiny
May 31 dips to 3%2%
Additional files released by the Pentagon included decades of military memos and reports from Apollo missions, but official statements continued to deny evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to price volatility and declines in shorter-term outcomes.
Pentagon releases first batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 dips to 17%4%
The Department of War and Pentagon released new, never-before-seen files on UFOs as part of the Trump administration's transparency effort, but the files did not confirm extraterrestrial life, causing mixed market reactions and dampening short-term odds.
Trump administration releases declassified UAP files including Apollo mission materials
The Trump administration released declassified files featuring Apollo 12 and Apollo 17 photos and transcripts as part of transparency efforts, but without confirming alien existence, leading to stable but cautious market sentiment.
U.S. government releases first batch of UFO and extraterrestrial documents
May 31 drops to 0%14%
The Pentagon launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) and released 161 previously classified files on UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, including Apollo 12 and 17 mission materials.
Pentagon publishes first batch of declassified UAP files
December 31 drops to 14%7%
The Pentagon released the first tranche of declassified UAP documents (161 files) via the new PURSUE website. The batch contained no definitive proof of extraterrestrials, prompting a brief rally followed by a sharp decline as traders reassessed the chances of a confirmation.
Pentagon releases first tranche of declassified UAP files
May 31 drops to 0%6%
The Pentagon, via the Department of War, launched the PURSUE website and released 161 previously classified UAP files, including Apollo mission photos. The batch contained no definitive proof of extraterrestrials, prompting a sharp drop in the May‑31 and June‑30 odds (from 6% to 0% and from 10% to 2%).
Trump administration releases declassified UAP files with Apollo mission photos
May 31 drops to 1%5%
The Trump administration’s release of UFO files including Apollo 12 and 17 photos and transcripts was part of a transparency initiative but did not confirm alien existence, causing market prices to decline for short-term outcomes.
Pentagon continues releasing UFO files with retro-themed website
December 31 dips to 14%4%
The Pentagon unveiled a new website hosting UFO files with military imagery and typewriter font, releasing 162 files including State Department cables and NASA transcripts. This ongoing release maintained public interest but did not include any definitive confirmation of alien existence, contributing to market fluctuations and a decline in short-term resolution probabilities.
Pentagon releases additional UFO files with public encouraged to interpret
December 31 dips to 17%3%
On May 8, 2026, the Pentagon released more UFO files, including images and documents, continuing its transparency initiative. This event maintained market interest in the December 31 outcome but did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to some price volatility.
Pentagon's initial UFO files release receives mixed public reactions
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Following the release of the first batch of UFO files, the Pentagon stated the materials did not provide confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed public and market reactions. This tempered some of the initial enthusiasm, causing minor price fluctuations in the market.
President Trump announces strategic reserve for rare‑earth elements
December 31 dips to 14%3%
While unrelated to UFOs, the announcement shifted market focus to broader defense and technology policy, pulling attention away from alien‑confirmation speculation and contributing to a 3‑point drop in the December‑31 price on May 9.
Pentagon releases declassified UFO files as part of Trump administration transparency effort
December 31 dips to 18%2%
The Department of War released new, never-before-seen files on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), including images and reports dating back to the 1940s. Despite the release, officials did not confirm extraterrestrial life, leading to mixed market reactions and a decline in shorter-term outcome prices.
Pentagon releases initial batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 drops to 13%5%
The Pentagon released previously classified files on UFOs and UAPs following Trump's directive, but the documents did not confirm extraterrestrial life, leading to market disappointment and price declines.
Pentagon releases first batch of previously secret UFO files
June 30 drops to 3%5%
The Pentagon released 161 declassified files documenting UFO reports, following Trump's directive, but the files did not confirm extraterrestrial life, causing mixed market reactions and declines in near-term outcome prices.
NASA admin says chances of finding extraterrestrials are high
December 31 jumps to 22%5%
NASA Administrator Isaacman told NBC’s Meet the Press that “the odds we will find something that suggests we are not alone are pretty high,” which nudged the “December 31” odds upward again in early May, temporarily reversing the earlier decline.
Pentagon announces rolling release of additional UFO documents
Following the February dump, the Pentagon confirmed it would continue releasing UFO files on a rolling basis, emphasizing ongoing transparency. The announcement tempered earlier excitement, causing a modest decline in market prices as traders reassessed the likelihood of a definitive confirmation.
President Trump hints at 'very interesting' UFO files about to be released
December 31 rises to 21%4%
President Trump publicly teased the Pentagon's preparation to release 'very interesting' UFO files uncovered by his administration, generating buzz and skepticism. This anticipation contributed to a temporary price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and prisoner swap
President Trump announced a 3-day ceasefire and prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine, marking a significant diplomatic development. This event was unrelated to alien confirmation and did not affect the market.
NASA chief says upcoming missions will probe for extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 18%2%
NASA administrator Isaacman announced that upcoming missions would include objectives related to the search for extraterrestrial life, adding scientific credibility to the disclosure narrative and nudging the "December 31" price upward by 2 points on 1 May.
Pentagon’s anti‑drone laser use triggers FAA airspace shutdown over El Paso
The Pentagon allowed Customs and Border Protection to fire an anti‑drone laser near Fort Bliss without FAA coordination, prompting the FAA to close El Paso airspace for several hours. The incident underscored heightened military activity and raised doubts about imminent UFO disclosures, pushing prices down to single‑digit levels for all contracts.
President Trump promises 'a lot of things' in upcoming UFO file releases
December 31 rises to 21%2%
At a White House event, Trump stated that forthcoming UFO file releases would contain significant information, sustaining market interest in a potential confirmation by year-end.
President Trump announces upcoming release of 'a lot of things' about UFOs
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Trump's public statement about forthcoming UFO file releases maintained market interest and speculation about alien confirmation, supporting elevated prices.
President Trump announces imminent release of 'very interesting' UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
At a Turning Point USA event, Trump stated that the Pentagon had found many interesting documents and that the first releases of UFO files would begin very soon. This announcement raised market optimism for disclosure, reflected in price increases for longer-term outcomes.
Trump says upcoming UFO releases will contain “a lot of things”
December 31 rises to 18%2%
At a White House event with the Artemis II crew, Trump promised that “a lot of things” would be in the upcoming UFO file releases, keeping the market’s optimism high for a year‑end confirmation and stabilising the “December 31” price around 18 %.
Trump hints at second wave of UFO files
June 30 dips to 2%3%
President Trump told reporters that more “very interesting” UFO files would be released “very soon.” The teaser raised hopes but, after the May 8 release failed to deliver confirmation, the June‑30 odds slid further to 2%.
President Trump promises upcoming UFO files will contain 'a lot of things'
President Trump stated that forthcoming UFO files would reveal significant information, sustaining market optimism for eventual confirmation of extraterrestrial life, particularly for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump says UFO files will contain 'a lot of things'
December 31 rises to 19%1%
At a White House event, President Trump stated that upcoming UFO file releases would contain significant information, sustaining market speculation and optimism about potential alien confirmation, particularly for the December 31 outcome.
Trump promises imminent release of UFO files amid national security concerns
December 31 dips to 18%2%
Trump stated that the first releases of government files on alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs would begin very soon, building public anticipation but without revealing any definitive evidence, which briefly supported market prices before declines.
Trump says administration will release “a lot of things” on UFOs
December 31 rises to 19%2%
During a White House event with the Artemis II crew, Trump reiterated that the administration would soon publish “a lot of things” on UFOs, renewing public attention and causing a modest rise in the “December 31” probability before a subsequent decline as the promised release was delayed.
Trump hints big revelations in upcoming UFO file releases
December 31 rises to 21%2%
During a White House event with the Artemis II crew, President Trump told reporters that the upcoming UFO releases would contain “a lot of things,” reviving market optimism and lifting the “December 31” price to a high of 21 % on 2026‑04‑24 before it began to ebb.
U.S. Senate committee holds hearing on UFO disclosure policy
May 31 drops to 1%5%
A bipartisan Senate hearing examined the government’s UFO disclosure strategy, suggesting no immediate confirmation was planned. The discussion contributed to a decline in the May 31 odds from 6% to 1% as traders reassessed the timeline.
Market reacts to ongoing UFO file releases and official clarifications
September 30 rises to 16%2%
Following the initial Pentagon releases, market prices for September 30 outcome peaked then began declining as no definitive confirmation emerged, reflecting skepticism about near-term official alien confirmation.
Trump cancels envoy mission to Pakistan; Iran offers 'much better' proposal
May 31 dips to 13%3%
Trump canceled the mission of envoys to Islamabad after Iran's foreign minister's brief return, and Iran reportedly sent a 'much better' proposal, contributing to market uncertainty.
Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs, encouraging public interpretation
December 31 jumps to 22%5%
The Pentagon started releasing a trove of previously classified UFO files, including videos and testimonies, aiming for transparency and allowing the public to draw their own conclusions. This release increased market optimism for the December 31 outcome, as it was the most direct government action related to extraterrestrial phenomena during the window.
NASA Administrator supports missions partly motivated by possible extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Jared Isaacman, NASA Administrator, stated that space missions are planned at least partly due to the possible existence of extraterrestrial life, adding credibility to transparency efforts and influencing market optimism for longer-term outcomes.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with photos and videos
December 31 rises to 22%4%
The Pentagon released dozens of declassified UFO files including videos and photos, fueling public interest but official statements reiterated no evidence of extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary price increase followed by decline.
NASA updates 2026 mission plans emphasizing search for extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 22%4%
NASA administrator Jared Isaacman publicly stated that the search for extraterrestrial life is central to NASA’s mission and that the odds of finding evidence are high, lending scientific weight to the discussion but not confirming alien existence, which caused moderate market impact.
Partial federal government shutdown stalls Pentagon funding
June 30 dips to 6%2%
A lapse in appropriations forced many Pentagon operations to pause, reducing confidence that any official alien‑confirmation statement could be issued before year‑end. Prices for all outcomes fell, with the June‑30 contract dropping from 8% to 6% and the May‑31 contract from 4% to 2%.
Former President Trump directs Pentagon to review and release UFO files
December 31 rises to 22%4%
Trump announced in February and reiterated in April that he had directed the Defense Secretary and other officials to begin reviewing and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, raising public anticipation for disclosures but without confirming alien existence.
Renewed Pentagon UFO file releases and congressional pressure for transparency
Additional UFO files were released by the Pentagon, and congressional Republicans pressed for further transparency, including the release of whistleblower videos. Despite increased information, no definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life was made, causing market prices to stabilize and then decline for earlier resolution dates.
Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.
Trump tweets that a formal alien confirmation is imminent
June 30 rises to 14%4%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that a major announcement confirming extraterrestrial life would be made within weeks, spurring a brief rally in the market and raising the June 30 odds from 10% to 14% before they fell again as the statement proved vague.
Pentagon uploads first PURSUE UAP file batch
December 31 rises to 22%4%
The Department of War announced that the All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) had uploaded the first batch of declassified UAP files to the new PURSUE website. Traders saw the concrete declassification as a step toward possible confirmation, pushing the December‑31 odds up again in late April.
Trump says UFO review uncovered 'interesting' documents
December 31 rises to 18%4%
President Trump announced that his administration's review of UFO-related material uncovered several 'interesting' documents, raising hopes for disclosure and causing the December 31 outcome price to jump from 14% to 18%.
President Trump says UFO file review found 'interesting' documents, release imminent
December 31 rises to 17%3%
President Trump stated that the review of UFO files uncovered many interesting documents and that the first releases would begin very soon. This statement maintained market optimism and supported the price for the December 31 outcome around 14-17%.
Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs and says the public can draw its own conclusions
December 31 rises to 23%4%
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files, which President Trump had previously teased as a major disclosure. However, the files did not provide definitive proof of alien life, causing the market to adjust downward as the 'major dump' failed to meet expectations for confirmation.
Defense Secretary Hegseth says interesting UFO documents will be released soon
December 31 rises to 22%4%
Defense Secretary Hegseth told supporters that the review had uncovered "many very interesting documents" and that releases would start soon. The comment reinforced the expectation of imminent disclosure, producing a 4‑point rise in the "December 31" price between 15 Apr and 19 Apr.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with no confirmation of alien life
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This release sparked public curiosity and a brief increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, but the lack of definitive confirmation led to a subsequent decline.
Scientists report no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life despite extensive searches
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Scientific reports reiterated the absence of confirmed extraterrestrial life despite advanced searches and thousands of exoplanet discoveries, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to price declines for near-term outcomes like May 31 from 6% to 1%.
Senate committee holds hearing on UFO disclosures
September 30 rises to 14%2%
Congress convened a hearing to discuss the newly released UFO material, briefly reviving optimism and nudging the September‑30 outcome up to 14% before it fell again later in the month.
Pentagon misses congressional deadline to release 46 classified UFO videos
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna demanded the Pentagon release 46 specific classified UAP videos by April 14, 2026, but the Pentagon failed to meet this deadline, causing criticism and skepticism about government transparency, which led to declines in near-term market prices.
Pentagon misses deadline to release 46 requested UFO videos
May 31 drops to 0%6%
The Pentagon failed to meet the April 14 deadline set by Rep. Luna to deliver 46 classified UAP video files, raising concerns about transparency and fueling criticism from lawmakers and the public. This failure contributed to declines in market prices for near-term confirmation outcomes.
Trump administration's UFO disclosure commitment buoyed by public and expert optimism
December 31 rises to 18%4%
After a largely alien-free first year, President Trump committed to UFO disclosure in 2026, buoying UFO enthusiasts and experts who claimed the US was closer than ever to confirming extraterrestrial life. This increased public and market optimism about potential confirmation.
Senate hearing underscores AARO’s lack of alien evidence
September 30 drops to 9%5%
A Senate hearing highlighted AARO’s 2024 report that found no evidence of alien technology. Media coverage of the report’s negative findings contributed to the gradual decline of all longer‑term outcomes, especially the September‑30 odds falling from 14% to 9% by the end of May.
Experts say US 'never been closer' to confirming alien existence amid Trump interest
December 31 rises to 21%3%
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism about potential confirmation due to the Trump administration's focus on UFO disclosure, sustaining market interest especially for the December 31 outcome.
Experts say US is closer than ever to alien disclosure under Trump administration
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism that President Trump’s commitment to UFO disclosure could lead to official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, temporarily boosting market confidence for the December 31 outcome.
Trump administration commits to UFO disclosure in 2026, boosting alien confirmation hopes
December 31 jumps to 21%5%
The Trump administration's renewed focus on UFO disclosure and extraterrestrial life in 2026 buoyed market optimism, with experts stating the US was closer than ever to confirming alien existence, causing a price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Experts say US is 'never been closer' to confirming alien evidence under Trump administration
UFO enthusiasts and experts expressed optimism that the Trump administration's focus on UFO disclosure and interest in extraterrestrials brought the US closer than ever to confirming alien existence, supporting elevated market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.
U.S. and Iran agree to indefinite ceasefire
September 30 dips to 13%1%
A historic ceasefire agreement was reached on April 7, temporarily halting the Iran war after two months of conflict, providing some stability to the global economy.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman says odds of finding alien life are high
December 31 dips to 14%4%
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman publicly stated that the search for extraterrestrial life is central to NASA’s mission and that the odds of finding evidence are high, lending scientific credibility to the discussion but not confirming alien existence, causing moderate market impact.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna demands Pentagon release 46 classified UFO videos by April 14
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Representative Anna Paulina Luna sent a formal letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demanding the release of 46 specific classified UAP video files by April 14, increasing congressional pressure on the Defense Department for transparency. This heightened political scrutiny influenced market prices, especially for near-term outcomes.
Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna demands 46 classified UAP videos from Pentagon
May 31 dips to 3%3%
Representative Luna sent a formal letter demanding the Pentagon deliver 46 specific classified UAP video files by April 14, 2026, increasing congressional pressure on the Defense Department for transparency. This heightened political scrutiny influenced market prices, especially for near-term outcomes.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 16%2%
President Trump directed US federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien life, UAPs, and UFOs, sparking increased market interest and a price rise for longer-term confirmation outcomes.
US government begins process to release alien and UFO files as directed by President Trump
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Following Trump's February directive, government agencies officially started the process of identifying and releasing files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs. This action sustained market interest and supported a moderate price increase near the end of the analysis window.
US government registers alien.gov domain amid UFO file release preparations
The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered the alien.gov and aliens.gov domains as part of preparations for the public release of declassified UFO and extraterrestrial files, signaling government commitment to transparency and fueling market interest.
Pentagon reiterates no confirmed evidence of alien technology in UFO files
December 31 dips to 16%3%
Despite the release of numerous UFO files, Pentagon officials and experts cautioned that the files do not confirm the existence of alien technology. This tempered market enthusiasm, leading to a slight price correction.
White House registers alien.gov and aliens.gov domains
December 31 rises to 14%2%
The registration of the domains alien.gov and aliens.gov was reported, fueling speculation about a dedicated disclosure portal. While the news was brief, it coincided with a modest uptick in the December‑31 odds in early March.
White House registers new alien-related .gov domains amid UFO disclosure efforts
December 31 rises to 18%4%
The registration of alien-related government domains suggested increased official focus on UFO disclosure, supporting market optimism for eventual confirmation, contributing to price rises for December 31 outcome.
Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.
Pentagon announces upcoming release of additional UFO videos
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Following pressure from some Republican lawmakers, the Pentagon announced plans to release 46 UFO videos identified by whistleblowers, fueling speculation but not providing official confirmation of alien life. This announcement caused a modest rise in market prices for longer-term outcomes.
U.S. government registers Alien.gov and Aliens.gov domains amid UFO file release plans
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency registered the domains Alien.gov and Aliens.gov, signaling a government initiative to centralize information on extraterrestrial matters. This move followed President Trump's directive and increased market interest and speculation about official disclosure.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats
September 30 dips to 9%3%
In response to Trump’s rhetoric about a possible “friendly takeover” of Cuba, the Cuban state presented a rifle to protest singer Silvio Rodríguez. The gesture underscored heightened tensions and reinforced market belief that the U.S. would not make a conciliatory statement on extraterrestrials, pushing all later‑date contracts lower.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats
June 30 dips to 7%1%
Same event, affecting the June‑30 contract which fell from 8% to 7% in the following days.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats
May 31 dips to 2%2%
Same event, influencing the May‑31 contract which slipped from 4% to 2% as market sentiment soured further.
“Aliens.gov” domain registered by White House
December 31 rises to 17%4%
A newly registered government domain “aliens.gov” was detected, fueling speculation about an official UFO portal. The rumor caused a short‑term spike in the December‑31 odds (from 13% to 17% on March 22).
DNI Gabbard testifies on UAP threat and upcoming disclosures
December 31 rises to 21%3%
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee, saying the UAP threat was being taken seriously and that new declassified material would be released soon. The testimony reinforced market optimism, contributing to a second peak of 21% for the December‑31 outcome on April 20.
Director of National Intelligence testifies on worldwide threats including UAPs
December 31 rises to 17%1%
Testimony by DNI Tulsi Gabbard before the Senate Intelligence Committee highlighted ongoing government investigations into UAPs, maintaining market interest but without confirming extraterrestrial life, supporting a moderate price level.
White House registers “aliens.gov” domain, fueling UFO speculation
December 31 rises to 21%4%
The White House registered the domains aliens.gov and alien.gov, a move confirmed by CISA. The registration was interpreted as a concrete step toward a disclosure platform, pushing the “December 31” odds up to a peak of 21 % on March 23.
Director of National Intelligence Gabbard testifies on global threats
DNI Tulsi Gabbard's Senate testimony on March 18, 2026, was part of broader congressional interest in UFO disclosures, contributing to the political momentum for transparency initiatives.
DNI Tulsi Gabbard testifies on UAP transparency before Senate
December 31 rises to 20%2%
DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee, emphasizing the need for full transparency on UAPs. Media coverage highlighted the testimony as a sign that the administration might soon make a definitive statement, keeping the “December 31” price elevated.
Government registers aliens.gov domain amidst UFO speculation
September 30 rises to 15%1%
The registration of the federal domain aliens.gov was reported on March 17, feeding speculation that a dedicated government portal was forthcoming. The news nudged the market upward modestly (from 14 % to 15 % on the “September 30” line) before the later releases reversed the trend.
AARO holds invite‑only workshop to standardize UAP data collection
September 30 drops to 9%5%
AARO announced a private workshop with civilian researchers to improve UAP data standards. While not a disclosure, the announcement signaled ongoing work but no new evidence, contributing to a gradual softening of the “September 30” odds to 9 % by late April.
Pentagon releases comprehensive UFO report finding no evidence of alien technology
June 30 dips to 7%3%
The Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office published a 63-page report reviewing decades of UFO sightings, concluding no evidence of extraterrestrial technology was found, which likely reduced market confidence in near-term confirmations.
Trump administration delays release of promised UFO files amid complexity
December 31 dips to 16%4%
Despite Trump's directive, no immediate release of files occurred, highlighting the complexity of disclosure and tempering market enthusiasm for near-term confirmation.
White House says no definitive evidence of extraterrestrials has been found
May 31 dips to 2%2%
Same statement also impacted the May‑31 outcome, pulling its price down to 2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a near‑term confirmation.
White House says no definitive evidence of extraterrestrials has been found
June 30 drops to 2%5%
A senior administration official publicly stated that, despite the recent releases, the government has not confirmed any alien technology, causing the market to retreat and the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes to fall to 2%.
U.S. and Israel launch attacks on Iran; Strait of Hormuz shut down
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28, disrupting global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a major economic shock and triggering the start of the Iran war.
Trump Orders Pentagon to Release UFO and Alien Life Files
December 31 rises to 10%3%
President Trump directed the Pentagon to identify and declassify government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, sparking trader interest in potential disclosure. This early action drove initial market price increases.
Scientist Avi Loeb discusses search for extraterrestrials in live stream
December 31 rises to 20%3%
Avi Loeb, a prominent scientist, presented findings from his scientific search for extraterrestrials, maintaining public and market interest in the possibility of alien life, supporting elevated market prices.
President Trump directs federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump announced a directive for the Secretary of War and other agencies to identify and release government files related to alien life, UAPs, and UFOs, sparking increased market interest and a rise in the December 31 outcome price from 9% to 14%.
Scientific discussion on extraterrestrial life streamed live by Avi Loeb
December 31 rises to 18%2%
Avi Loeb, a prominent scientist, held a live discussion on his search for extraterrestrials, increasing scientific and public attention on the topic, supporting market interest in the December 31 outcome.
Scientific discussion on extraterrestrial search streamed live
December 31 jumps to 19%5%
A prominent scientific event discussing findings from the search for extraterrestrials increased public and market interest, supporting elevated prices for longer-term outcomes.
Obama states aliens are real but has not seen them
December 31 jumps to 18%9%
Former President Obama's statement that aliens are real but he hasn't seen them created a wave of speculation about potential government disclosure, amplifying interest in the UFO file release process.
Pentagon Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s controversial policies and media restrictions
December 31 dips to 16%1%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed new media rules and policies at the Pentagon, leading to lawsuits and media pushback. While not directly related to alien confirmation, these actions influenced public perception of Pentagon transparency and may have indirectly affected market sentiment on UFO disclosures.
Defense Secretary Hegseth says Pentagon ready to release alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 26%8%
Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon was ready to act on Trump’s order, reinforcing expectations of a near‑term release and causing the market’s “December 31” probability to peak at 26 % on 2026‑02‑20.
Pentagon confirms working on identifying and releasing alien files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life following President Trump's directive, maintaining market interest and confidence in eventual disclosure.
Pentagon confirms work on declassifying UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the Pentagon is actively working on releasing alien-related files following Trump's directive, sustaining market optimism about potential confirmation.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth updates on government work to release alien files
December 31 rises to 14%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life following President Trump's directive, maintaining market interest and supporting the elevated price levels.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms Pentagon working on alien files release
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Following Trump's directive, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the Pentagon is actively working on identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, reinforcing market expectations of forthcoming disclosures and sustaining price gains.
Obama Confirms Aliens Exist in Podcast Interview
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Former President Obama stated in a podcast that aliens are real, prompting widespread media coverage and reinforcing market expectations that government disclosure of alien existence was imminent.
Former President Obama confirms aliens are real but unseen
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
Obama stated that aliens are real though he has not seen them, fueling public and market speculation about imminent disclosure, contributing to a brief rally in the market.
Obama Says Aliens Are 'Real but I Haven't Seen Them'
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Former President Obama stated in a February interview that aliens are 'real but I haven't seen them,' sparking widespread speculation and market interest in official confirmation.
Trump Orders Federal Agencies to Release UFO Files on Alien Life
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump directed the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, sparking widespread speculation and driving the market price to 14% by early February.
Trump directs Pentagon to release UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 jumps to 18%9%
Following pressure from Congress and after Obama's statement that aliens are real, Trump ordered federal agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrials, sparking initial market optimism.
Trump Orders Pentagon to Release UFO Files on Alien Life
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump announced on social media that he would direct federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, fueling speculation and driving early price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Trump orders Pentagon to begin releasing UFO and alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 22%11%
Trump posted on Truth Social that, because of “tremendous interest,” he was directing the Defense Secretary and other agencies to identify and release any government files on alien life and UAPs. The announcement sparked the market’s biggest single‑day jump (+11 points) on 2026‑02‑20, raising the “December 31” price to a peak of 22 %.
President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.
Trump directs agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 22%12%
President Donald Trump announced on social media that he would direct the Defense Secretary and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UFOs, and UAPs. This announcement caused the largest single-day jump in market prices, reflecting increased belief in imminent disclosure.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms Pentagon compliance with Trump's UFO disclosure order
December 31 jumps to 26%12%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the Pentagon was actively working to implement President Trump's directive to release government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life. This confirmation reinforced expectations of near-term releases and contributed to a peak in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Trump threatens “friendly takeover” of Cuba during televised interview
September 30 drops to 7%7%
In a February 20 interview, Trump said the United States could consider a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, heightening fears of a dramatic geopolitical shift that could include disclosure of secret programs. The speculation drove the September 30 contract down from 14% to 7% and pushed the June 30 and May 31 contracts toward single‑digit levels.
Scientific community clarifies no evidence of alien contact despite political statements
December 31 dips to 16%2%
Scientific experts, including SETI Institute leadership, emphasized that while extraterrestrial life is statistically probable, no credible evidence of alien visitation exists. This tempered market enthusiasm slightly but did not reverse gains from Trump's directive.
President Trump publicly promotes UFO document release and transparency
December 31 jumps to 18%8%
President Trump posted on social media emphasizing the transparency of the new UFO files release and inviting the public to decide what is going on. This statement reinforced market expectations that the government might confirm alien existence, causing a price spike.
President Trump directs US agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 surges to 26%16%
Following former President Obama's remarks suggesting aliens are "real" but unconfirmed, President Trump ordered federal agencies to identify and release government files related to extraterrestrial life and UAPs. This announcement caused the market's largest single-day jump, raising the December 31 outcome price from 10% to a peak of 26%.
Trump directs Pentagon to release "very interesting" UFO files
December 31 rises to 26%4%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had directed the Department of War to begin releasing "very interesting" UFO documents. The announcement sparked a sharp rise in the market, lifting the December‑31 probability to a peak of 26 % on Feb 20, reflecting traders’ belief that a definitive confirmation could be imminent.
Pentagon’s UAP website traffic spikes after media coverage
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Widespread reporting on the February 9 release drove a surge in public interest, pushing the December‑31 price to a 4‑point high of 13% and the September‑30 price to 15%, reflecting heightened belief in an imminent confirmation.
President Trump orders US agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 20%10%
President Trump directed US government agencies, including the Department of Defense, to begin identifying and releasing files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, sparking increased market interest and a price surge for the December 31 outcome from 10% to 20%.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, Trump touts transparency
The Pentagon posted 162 previously classified UFO documents on a new website, a move highlighted by President Trump on Truth Social. The unprecedented disclosure revived speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, pushing the December‑31 contract up to 23% and lifting other dates as well.
President Trump orders release of government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
Trump directed the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, causing a sharp market probability jump to a peak of 26% for December 31, 2026.
US government launches transparency initiative releasing secret UFO files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Following Trump's directive, the US government began releasing previously classified UFO files under a new transparency initiative involving multiple agencies, which increased market optimism about potential official confirmation.
Trump orders agencies to release alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 26%5%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had directed the Pentagon and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files on alien life and UAPs. Traders interpreted the directive as a concrete step toward official disclosure, pushing the "December 31" probability up 5 points to a peak of 26 % on 20 Feb.
President Trump orders declassification of UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Following Obama’s comments, Trump announced on social media directing the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, boosting market prices significantly.
President Trump directs release of government UFO files
December 31 surges to 26%15%
Trump ordered federal agencies to identify and release files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, causing a sharp increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome due to heightened expectations of disclosure.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify and release UFO and alien-related files
December 31 surges to 26%16%
Following former President Obama's remarks that aliens are "real but I haven't seen them," President Trump directed the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government files on extraterrestrial life and unidentified aerial phenomena. This directive sharply increased market optimism for confirmation by December 31, 2026, pushing the December 31 outcome price from 10% to a peak of 26%.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.
Trump orders agencies to declassify alien‑related files
December 31 jumps to 17%6%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was directing the Department of War and other agencies to identify and release any government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs and UFOs. Traders interpreted the directive as a strong catalyst for possible disclosure, driving the market up 5 points from 11 % to 17 % on 2026‑02‑20.
President Trump orders release of government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Trump directed the Pentagon and other agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, increasing market optimism about potential confirmation.
President Trump directs US agencies to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 17%7%
Following former President Obama's comments about aliens, President Trump ordered the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, sparking increased market interest in a potential confirmation.
President Trump directs agencies to release UFO and alien files
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
Trump announced on social media he would direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, causing a sharp jump in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
President Trump orders government to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 15%5%
In response to public interest and Obama's comments, President Trump directed the Department of Defense and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena, and UFOs, significantly boosting market optimism about official disclosure.
President Trump directs government to release files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 rises to 11%2%
President Donald Trump announced on social media that he would direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs, sparking renewed public interest and market optimism for official confirmation.
President Trump directs release of government files on aliens and UFOs
December 31 jumps to 26%12%
Following Obama's remarks, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct the Defense Secretary and other agencies to identify and release government files related to extraterrestrial life and UAPs, causing the market's biggest single-day jump.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify and release UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
President Trump directed the Secretary of Defense and other agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about alien confirmation. This directive initiated the government disclosure process and caused an initial rise in market probabilities for confirmation by year-end.
President Trump directs federal agencies to release UFO and alien-related files
December 31 jumps to 20%6%
President Trump announced on social media that he would direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs. This announcement sparked significant market interest and the largest single-day price jump for the December 31 outcome, reflecting increased optimism about potential disclosure.
President Trump orders agencies to declassify UFO and alien files
December 31 rises to 18%4%
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would direct the Department of Defense and other agencies to “identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life.” The executive order was interpreted as a promise of imminent disclosure, pushing the “December 31” odds up another 4 points to 18 % on 2026‑02‑20.
President Trump directs Department of War to act on UFO file release
December 31 rises to 14%4%
Trump used his social media platform to order the Department of War to begin releasing UFO files, reinforcing market expectations of imminent disclosure and driving prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Trump Orders Pentagon to Release UFO and Alien Government Files
December 31 rises to 14%4%
President Trump announced on social media that he would direct the Pentagon and other federal agencies to begin releasing government records related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs, sparking immediate market interest and price increases.
President Trump orders declassification of UFO and alien files
December 31 surges to 26%15%
Trump directed federal agencies to identify and release government files related to UFOs and extraterrestrial life, significantly boosting market probabilities for confirmation by December 31, 2026, as it suggested potential forthcoming disclosures.
Trump reiterates order to release UFO and alien files, sparking market surge
December 31 jumps to 17%11%
Following Obama's remarks and ongoing public interest, Trump reiterated his directive to release government files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life, causing the market probability to jump sharply from 6% to 17%.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real but I haven't seen them'
December 31 rises to 16%4%
Obama's public comment that extraterrestrials are real but he had not seen them reignited public interest and speculation about alien life, contributing to increased market probabilities for confirmation by December 31, 2026. This statement tempered enthusiasm with a cautious tone, influencing market sentiment.
Former President Obama clarifies remarks on extraterrestrial life after sparking UFO speculation
Obama initially suggested aliens are "real" during a podcast, causing a media frenzy and conspiracy theories. He later clarified his comments, stating he saw no evidence of alien contact during his presidency, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price stability.
Trump orders agencies to release all UFO and alien‑related files
December 31 surges to 26%15%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing all government files related to alien life and UAPs. The pledge reinforced expectations of a definitive disclosure, pushing the “December 31” odds up to a peak of 26 % on 2026‑02‑20.
Former President Obama says aliens are real but clarifies no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama stated in a podcast that aliens are real but he had not seen evidence of contact during his presidency, later clarifying that the vastness of the universe makes extraterrestrial life statistically likely but no proof of visitation exists. This statement sparked renewed public and market interest in the possibility of alien existence.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real but unseen' in podcast
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
Obama's viral podcast comment that aliens are "real but I haven't seen them" sparked a surge in public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, lifting market probabilities for confirmation by December 31, 2026. This statement reignited debate and prompted subsequent government actions on UFO disclosures.
Former President Obama says "aliens are real" on podcast
December 31 jumps to 22%6%
In a widely‑circulated podcast interview, former President Obama said “they’re real” when asked about aliens, then clarified he had seen no evidence. The comment revived public interest and helped push the market up from the low‑teens to the high‑teens in mid‑February.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real' but he hasn't seen them
December 31 rises to 11%2%
In a podcast interview, Obama said aliens are real but he personally has not seen them and denied conspiracy theories about aliens being kept at Area 51. This statement reignited public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, causing a market price increase for longer-term confirmation outcomes.
U.S. and Venezuela explore restoring diplomatic ties after Maduro’s capture
September 30 drops to 9%5%
The announcement of diplomatic talks signaled a shift in focus away from the dramatic capture of Maduro, dampening speculation that the administration would soon confirm alien evidence, leading to a drop in the September 30 odds from 14% to 9%.
Former President Obama claims aliens are real on podcast
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
Former President Obama said on a podcast that “aliens are real but I haven’t seen them,” which sparked a massive media frenzy and lifted market expectations for a U.S. confirmation before the end of the year. The “December 31” probability jumped from 9 % to 14 % in the days that followed.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public urged to draw own conclusions
December 31 jumps to 18%8%
The Pentagon started releasing a batch of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents describing unidentified aerial phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging the public to interpret the information themselves, which increased market optimism about possible official confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
Former President Obama states aliens are 'real' but no evidence of contact
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama's podcast comment that aliens are statistically likely but no evidence of contact during his presidency reignited public and market interest in extraterrestrial life, setting the stage for subsequent government actions.
Former President Obama says aliens are real but unseen
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama stated in a podcast that he believes aliens exist but has not seen them, which reignited public and media interest in extraterrestrial life and government disclosure. This statement contributed to increased market speculation about official confirmation.
President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade
May 31 dips to 4%2%
Same event, driving the May‑31 contract down from 6% to 4% as traders priced in a prolonged hostile U.S. stance.
President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Same event as above, affecting the June‑30 contract which fell from 10% to 8% in the days following the announcement.
President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade
September 30 dips to 12%2%
Trump announced a new round of tariffs targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba, heightening the U.S. energy blockade. The move was seen as a signal that the administration would not soften its stance, reducing market confidence that any U.S. official would acknowledge alien life soon, causing a drop in the September‑30, June‑30 and May‑31 contracts.
Joint Chiefs convene rare meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff convened a rare meeting of military leaders from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen cooperation against drug trafficking and criminal organizations. This event underscored the US government's focus on hemispheric security but did not relate to alien confirmation, thus having no direct impact on the market.
Joint Chiefs Chairman convenes rare multilateral military summit
June 30 dips to 10%1%
The Joint Chiefs chairman held a rare multilateral military meeting. Although unrelated to UFOs, the event was cited in market commentary as a possible venue for sharing classified UAP data, contributing to a modest uptick in the “June 30” line in late February.
Pentagon releases new UFO files with no definitive alien confirmation
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The Pentagon published a trove of previously unreleased UFO files, including videos and testimonies, which fueled speculation but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This event increased market interest in the December 31 outcome, pushing its price from 9% to 14%.
Former President Obama states aliens are real but unseen
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Obama's public statement acknowledging the reality of aliens, though without direct evidence, sparked renewed public interest and increased market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Joint Chiefs Chairman details Maduro capture operation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.
President Trump orders release of government files on extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%2%
President Trump issued an executive order directing federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, initiating a 300-day countdown for declassification. This action sparked increased market interest and a price rise for the December 31 outcome from 9% to 11%.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files to the public
December 31 jumps to 16%7%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, which pushed the December‑31 outcome up to 16% on Feb 20.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.
Pentagon releases declassified UFO files, Trump touts transparency on alien phenomena
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
The Department of Defense made a batch of previously classified UFO documents public, and President Trump highlighted the release on Truth Social, suggesting the government was moving toward confirming extraterrestrial evidence. Traders interpreted this as a boost to the likelihood of a formal U.S. acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 contract.
Pentagon releases new UFO files amid Trump’s push for alien transparency
December 31 jumps to 20%10%
The Department of Defense declassified a batch of UFO videos and reports, a move publicly encouraged by President Trump on Truth Social. Traders saw this as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December 31 odds from 10% to 20%.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 17%8%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of new UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This event caused a notable increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened optimism about a possible official confirmation.
Trump administration releases new batch of Pentagon UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The Trump administration released a trove of declassified Pentagon files on UFO sightings, including videos and testimonies, renewing public interest in extraterrestrial phenomena. However, the files did not confirm alien existence, leading to a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome but no definitive resolution.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The Pentagon started releasing a trove of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents, as part of a transparency effort led by President Trump. This release sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial phenomena but did not include any definitive confirmation of alien life, causing a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Federal judge restores Pentagon press credentials for major newspapers
A district court ruled that the Pentagon’s new media‑access policy violated First Amendment rights, ordering the reinstatement of credentials for outlets like The New York Times. The decision signaled a potential increase in reporting on classified UFO matters, but also highlighted internal conflicts, causing a modest pullback in market prices to around 9% for all outcomes.
President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.
President Trump publicly teases major UFO document dump
December 31 rises to 10%1%
President Trump publicly teased a major release of UFO documents, increasing speculation and market interest in official disclosure. This statement helped drive early February price increases for the December 31 outcome.
Space shuttle Columbia disaster remembered on anniversary
The anniversary of the space shuttle Columbia disaster was observed, recalling the loss of seven astronauts. While space-related, this event did not influence the market for alien confirmation.
President Trump orders federal agencies to declassify UFO and extraterrestrial files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
In February 2026, President Donald Trump directed federal agencies to identify and release government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and UFOs. This unprecedented move initiated the process that led to the release of classified documents, significantly increasing market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
US to release UFO evidence in 2026 as officials face mounting pressure
December 31 dips to 9%1%
The US government faces mounting pressure to disclose UFO evidence in 2026, with the National Defense Authorization Act mandating new briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004.
Congress Passes NDAA Mandating UFO Briefings on UAPs
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 was passed, requiring briefings on UAP encounters dating back to 2004 and calling for a review of excessive classification.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine convenes rare meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders
General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced a rare meeting of military leaders from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to improve cooperation on security issues. While unrelated to alien disclosure, this event was notable in the period but did not affect the market for alien confirmation.
US military details timeline of operation to capture Maduro
Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine detailed the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting the use of over 150 aircraft including F-22s, F-35s, and B-1 bombers.
Legislative Mandates Increase Pressure for UAP Disclosure in 2026
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated Pentagon briefings to Congress on UAP encounters since 2004 and reviews of over-classification, intensifying political pressure for disclosure. This legislative action sustained market interest, stabilizing the December 31 outcome price around 10%.
US Congress mandates new briefings and reviews on UFO encounters in 2026 NDAA
December 31 dips to 10%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 included requirements for updated briefings on UAP encounters and reviews of classified material, increasing legislative pressure for transparency. This legislative action contributed to market speculation but no direct confirmation was issued.
James Fox Hosts UAP Press Conference with New Evidence and Witnesses
December 31 rises to 12%3%
Filmmaker James Fox held a landmark press conference at the National Press Club featuring firsthand witnesses, medical experts, and insiders presenting new evidence related to alleged non-human encounters and crash-retrieval programs. This event increased market optimism, pushing the December 31 outcome price to 12%.
James Fox hosts landmark UAP press conference in Washington DC
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Investigative filmmaker James Fox held a major press conference presenting new evidence and testimonies related to alleged non-human encounters and crash-retrieval programs. This event increased public and market attention on potential official disclosure of extraterrestrial life.
US Department of Homeland Security highlights enforcement actions unrelated to alien disclosure
The DHS released statements about enforcement actions against criminal illegal aliens, which did not relate to extraterrestrial confirmation and had no clear impact on the market for alien disclosure.
Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.
UAP press conference at National Press Club presents new evidence on non-human encounters
December 31 rises to 10%2%
A high-profile press conference brought together witnesses and officials to present new evidence related to alleged non-human encounters, maintaining public and market interest in UFO disclosure prospects in 2026.
Former Bank of England Analyst Warns of U.S. Alien Disclosure
December 31 dips to 10%3%
Helen McCaw reiterated her warning about U.S. confirmation of technologically advanced non-human intelligence behind UAPs, emphasizing potential financial turbulence.
Speculation Continues on Trump’s Upcoming Alien Disclosure Announcement
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Market price rose to 13% amid ongoing speculation about a planned announcement by President Trump confirming alien contact, though no official confirmation was made during the analysis window.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Pentagon began releasing a new trove of UFO-related documents and videos, with President Trump encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions about the phenomena.
Bank of England analyst warns of financial risks from US alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Helen McCaw, former Bank of England analyst, publicly urged preparations for potential US confirmation of extraterrestrial life, highlighting possible financial market volatility and lending credibility to disclosure expectations.
Former Bank of England analyst urges preparation for potential US alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Helen McCaw, a former senior analyst at the Bank of England, publicly urged the bank to prepare contingency plans for a possible official US confirmation of extraterrestrial life, warning of potential financial market volatility. This added to market speculation and maintained elevated interest in the December 31 outcome.
Bank of England warned to prepare for market crash if US confirms extraterrestrial life
December 31 dips to 10%1%
Helen McCaw, a former Bank of England analyst, publicly urged the Bank to prepare for extreme financial market volatility and potential collapse in confidence should the US government confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life. This heightened awareness of economic risks related to disclosure influenced market sentiment.
Former Bank of England analyst warns of financial risks from potential US alien disclosure
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Helen McCaw, a former Bank of England senior analyst, publicly urged preparation for a possible US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life, warning of extreme market volatility and confidence collapse. This heightened awareness likely supported a price rise in the market for the December 31 outcome.
Whistleblower activity and congressional momentum intensify disclosure pressure
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
Continued whistleblower testimonies and legislative efforts in early 2026 increased market optimism, causing a price rebound from 7% to 12% for the December 31 outcome after a prior dip.
Filmmaker claims Trump to announce first contact with aliens during 2026 World Cup
British filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee stated that Trump would confirm first contact with aliens during the 2026 World Cup, specifically preparing a speech for this event, which sustained market interest in a mid-year disclosure.
Pentagon releases new UFO/UAP files for public review
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Pentagon began releasing declassified files on unidentified anomalous phenomena, including old State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. While the files contained unresolved cases, the administration emphasized public transparency and allowed the public to draw their own conclusions about potential extraterrestrial activity.
Bank of England Analyst Urges Preparation for US Alien Disclosure
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Helen McCaw, former senior analyst at the Bank of England, warned Governor Andrew Bailey that the US government may confirm extraterrestrial life, citing potential extreme market volatility and collapse in confidence.
Whistleblower activity and legislative efforts intensify disclosure pressure
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Ongoing efforts by whistleblowers advising congressional caucuses and proposed amendments to the UAP Disclosure Act increased political momentum for revealing extraterrestrial information, causing a temporary price uptick.
Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP incidents since 2004
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
The NDAA 2026 includes provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts dating back to 2004, increasing expectations for transparency on extraterrestrial encounters.
US President Trump Preparing Historic Statement on Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 13%4%
Reports indicated President Trump was preparing to announce the first contact with an alien civilization, raising market speculation and a price increase to 13% by January 19, 2026.
Reports claim President Trump to announce first contact with aliens at 2026 World Cup
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Multiple media outlets, citing filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee, reported that President Trump had prepared a speech to confirm humanity's first contact with extraterrestrial life, expected to be delivered during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This speculation caused a price increase in the December 31 outcome from 8% to 11%.
Trump to announce first contact with aliens at 2026 FIFA World Cup
December 31 rises to 11%2%
British director Mark Christopher Lee claimed Trump had prepared a speech to announce first human contact with aliens during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, citing the 79th anniversary of the Roswell UFO crash as the announcement date.
Reports claim former President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%2%
Media reports surfaced that former President Donald Trump was preparing to make a significant statement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling speculation and causing a temporary market price increase. However, no official confirmation followed, limiting sustained price gains.
US President Donald Trump to make historic statement on extraterrestrial civilizations
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
Trump is preparing to announce the first confirmed contact with aliens, described as the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations. This high-profile announcement significantly boosted market anticipation for official confirmation.
US President Trump Prepares for Historic Statement on Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Trump is reportedly preparing to make the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, according to a Daily Star report citing documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee.
Trump Prepares for Historic Statement on Extraterrestrial Contact
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Reports indicated President Trump was preparing to make a major statement about first contact with aliens, described as the most important statement in human history regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.
Reports claim Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Media reports surfaced that former President Donald Trump was preparing to make a historic announcement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling speculation and a temporary price increase in the market.
US President Trump reportedly preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 9%1%
Reports emerged that former President Donald Trump was preparing to announce official contact with extraterrestrial civilizations, fueling market speculation about imminent disclosure. This news contributed to a price increase for the December 31 outcome as traders anticipated a possible confirmation.
Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs
December 31 rises to 11%3%
The Pentagon released a new batch of UFO-related documents, which President Trump promoted as a transparency effort, allowing the public to draw their own conclusions about unidentified anomalous phenomena.
Reports emerge that former President Trump plans historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Media reports on January 16, 2026, claimed that Donald Trump was preparing to announce first contact with extraterrestrials, fueling speculation and a temporary price increase in the market. This raised hopes of imminent official confirmation, though no actual statement was made at that time.
US announces Trump will make historic extraterrestrials statement
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Russian outlet Izvestia reported that the White House had announced Trump would make “the most important statement in the history of mankind regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.” The claim revived speculation that a formal declaration could arrive before the year’s end, nudging the market back up to 10 % in mid‑January.
Reports claim Trump to announce first contact with aliens in 2026
December 31 rises to 10%3%
Media reports citing documentary filmmaker Mark Christopher Lee claimed President Trump plans to make a historic announcement confirming first contact with extraterrestrials, fueling market speculation despite no official confirmation yet.
Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrial civilizations
December 31 rises to 8%1%
Reports indicated that President Trump was preparing to make the most important statement in history regarding extraterrestrial life, which briefly raised market optimism but did not lead to immediate confirmation, with prices around 8-10%.
Izvestia reports Trump is preparing an historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Izvestia published a story quoting the Daily Star that President Trump was preparing an “historical statement” on extraterrestrials. The announcement revived market optimism, lifting the Yes probability from 7 % on 2026‑01‑03 back up to 11 % on 2026‑01‑19, the only later rise in the window.
Announcement expected from President Trump on extraterrestrial contact
December 31 jumps to 14%5%
Reports indicated that President Trump was preparing to make a historic statement regarding extraterrestrial civilizations and first contact, fueling market speculation and a price increase to 14% on January 19, 2026. However, no official confirmation was made within the analysis window.
Reports claim President Trump preparing historic statement on extraterrestrials
December 31 rises to 10%3%
In mid-January 2026, reports emerged that President Donald Trump was preparing to make a historic announcement confirming first contact with alien civilizations, raising market hopes for official confirmation within the year.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public transparency focus
December 31 rises to 9%1%
On January 16, 2026, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files, including old State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts, emphasizing transparency and allowing the public to draw their own conclusions. This event increased market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a price rise from 8% to 9% for the December 31 outcome.
YouGov Poll Shows 47% of Americans Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
A YouGov poll conducted in November 2025 found that 47% of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, reflecting growing public belief in extraterrestrial life.
Astronomers find no signs of extraterrestrial technology in 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 7%2%
A study by the Breakthrough Listen project found no technosignatures from 3I/ATLAS during its closest approach to Earth, reinforcing the natural origin theory and reducing market optimism for imminent US confirmation of alien existence.
NASA and scientists confirm 3I/ATLAS is not an alien spacecraft
December 31 rises to 8%1%
In early January 2026, further studies and official statements confirmed that 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet with no extraterrestrial technology detected. This reinforced the official stance and maintained market prices at a low level for confirmation by December 31.
DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
December 31 rises to 9%1%
A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.
US Congress passes NASA budget omitting Mars sample retrieval mission
Congress approved a NASA budget that excludes plans to retrieve Martian rock samples that might contain signs of extraterrestrial life, signaling delays in direct evidence acquisition and possibly dampening market expectations for near-term confirmation.
Study casts doubt on Europa's potential to support extraterrestrial life
A new scientific study suggested that Jupiter's moon Europa may not have the necessary conditions to support life, tempering expectations about finding extraterrestrial life in the solar system. This scientific news likely contributed to maintaining low market optimism about imminent official confirmation.
CIA neither confirms nor denies investigations into interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
In response to a November 2025 FOIA request, the CIA released a statement saying it could 'neither deny nor confirm the existence or nonexistence of records' regarding the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, adding to UFO disclosure speculation.
CIA issues Glomar response on 3I/ATLAS records, fueling UFO disclosure speculation
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The CIA responded to a November 2025 FOIA request with a classic “Glomar response,” neither confirming nor denying the existence of records on the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS. The ambiguous stance revived speculation that the government might be hiding extraterrestrial data, prompting a fresh uptick in the market to around 10 % “Yes.”
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate
December 31 rises to 7%1%
The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.
No official confirmation of extraterrestrial life despite ongoing speculation
December 31 dips to 6%1%
By early January 2026, no definitive statements or disclosures about extraterrestrial life were made by the US government, leading to a decline in market prices to around 6-8%. Skeptical reports and lack of evidence tempered market optimism.
Pentagon censors Senator Mark Kelly over anti‑war video
December 31 rises to 11%3%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth formally censured Senator Kelly for a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, reigniting debate over government transparency and raising the chance of an official alien‑existence statement, which lifted prices in mid‑January.
U.S. Strike Captures Venezuelan President Maduro
December 31 rises to 8%1%
President Trump announced a U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, shifting public and market attention away from UFO/ET topics.
No definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life by early January
December 31 dips to 6%2%
Despite ongoing speculation and legislative activity, no official statement confirming extraterrestrial life was made, leading to a decline in market price to 6% for the December 31 outcome.
U.S. labor report shows strong hiring, shifting focus away from UFO speculation
The Labor Department reported a surprising gain of 130,000 jobs, drawing media attention to economic news and reducing speculative interest in the alien‑confirmation market, contributing to the price staying low at 7%.
No official US confirmation of extraterrestrial life by year-end
As 2025 ended and 2026 began, no US President, Cabinet member, or federal agency definitively confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology, leading to a market price decline to 7-8%.
Implementation of 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings
December 31 dips to 7%3%
The Act required fresh briefings on UAP encounters since 2004 and reviews of classified material, intensifying legislative pressure for disclosure but without immediate confirmation, leading to price stabilization around 7-10%.
Former Bank of England Analyst Warns of US Alien Disclosure Impact
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Helen McCaw, former Bank of England analyst, stated the US government appears to be partway through a multi-year process to declassify and disclose information on technologically advanced non-human intelligence behind UAPs.
Congressional Pressure Mounts for UFO Disclosure in 2026
December 31 rises to 9%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 mandates new UAP briefings and a review of classified material, intensifying pressure for potential US government disclosure of UFO information.
Whistleblower David Grusch Advocates for Congressional UAP Review
December 31 rises to 9%2%
Former US Air Force intelligence officer David Grusch continues to advise congressional caucuses into 2026, pushing for disclosure of UAP information and claims of covert programs to recover crashed extraterrestrial crafts.
Pentagon Press Operations office closed for New Year holiday
December 31 dips to 7%2%
The Pentagon Press Operations office was closed from December 31, 2025, to January 4, 2026, limiting official communications and possibly contributing to a price drop from 9% to 7% on December 31 and early January.
UFO disclosure betting market shows 98% odds for Trump declassification
December 31 dips to 7%3%
Polymarket maintained 98% odds for the Trump administration declassifying UFO files by the end of 2025, reflecting sustained betting activity and market confidence in a disclosure.
White House press secretary reiterates no official confirmation of alien life
December 31 dips to 7%2%
At a daily briefing, the White House press secretary stated that the administration had no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial existence, dampening hopes of a near‑term confirmation and pushing the market’s probability down to 7%.
NASA Administrator denies alien origin of 3I/ATLAS comet
NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy publicly stated there is no evidence of alien technology in the 3I/ATLAS comet, countering claims it was an extraterrestrial spacecraft, which may have contributed to market volatility.
ICE Arrests Criminal Illegal Aliens Including Child Rapists and Drug Traffickers
December 31 dips to 9%1%
ICE conducted a series of arrests targeting the worst criminal illegal aliens, including child rapists and drug traffickers, which may have been used to distract from or downplay UAP-related discussions.
ICE Ends 2025 With More Arrests of Worst of Worst Criminal Illegal Aliens
December 31 dips to 7%3%
ICE conducted arrests of criminal illegal aliens, including child rapists and drug traffickers, which may have contributed to the market's volatility as the administration focused on immigration enforcement.
NASA confirms Terra satellite will continue SAGE III/ISS mission through 2026
NASA granted approval to extend the SAGE III/ISS mission through at least 2026, continuing to provide atmospheric data, which supports NASA's ongoing Earth and space science missions.
John E. Mack podcast episode released on UFO and alien hybrid claims
December 31 dips to 10%3%
A podcast episode featuring Pulitzer Prize-winning psychiatrist John E. Mack, a prominent advocate for UFO and alien abduction theories, was released, reinforcing the cultural momentum around extraterrestrial life.
Military Servicemen Expose UFO Details in New Documentary
A documentary released in December 2025 featuring military servicemen discussing extraterrestrial encounters at Vandenberg, reigniting public and market interest in UFO disclosures and potential official U.S. statements about alien technology.
From A.I. to Chips, Big Tech Is Getting What It Wants From Trump
The New York Times reported the president backed policies allowing the tech industry to grow, which may have indirectly influenced public interest in U.S. government transparency on UFOs.
Documentary 'The Age of Disclosure' Highlights Military UFO Encounters
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The release of a documentary detailing military servicemen's accounts of UFO encounters renewed public and market interest in extraterrestrial life, supporting a temporary price increase in early December.
NASA Releases New Clues in Search for Extraterrestrial Life
NASA highlighted new discoveries including James Webb Space Telescope detections of exoplanet atmospheric compositions and Perseverance rover analyses of Martian rock cores, advancing the search for alien life. This positive scientific momentum may have supported market optimism.
NASA highlights new clues in search for extraterrestrial life using advanced technology
December 31 rises to 13%2%
NASA announced progress in detecting atmospheric compositions of exoplanets and analyzing Martian samples, maintaining public interest but without confirming alien life. This sustained moderate market interest with prices around 11-13%.
NASA Detects Atmospheric Clues of Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 14%2%
A NASA article reported the James Webb Space Telescope detecting atmospheric compositions on exoplanets and Perseverance rover analyzing Martian rock cores, advancing the search for alien life.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.
Scientists publish research on historic UFO sightings near nuclear sites
December 31 dips to 11%1%
A research paper published in October 2025 revealed transient star-like flashes in old photographs near nuclear testing sites, renewing public and expert interest in UFO phenomena. This contributed to sustained market interest but no definitive confirmation.
NASA announces new clues to extraterrestrial life
December 31 drops to 7%5%
NASA reported that the James Webb Space Telescope is detecting atmospheric compositions of exoplanets dozens of light-years away, while Perseverance rover analyzes Martian rock cores, advancing the search for alien life.
UFO Whistleblower David Grusch Confirms Trump Fully Briefed on UAPs
UFO whistleblower David Grusch stated in an interview that President Trump was fully briefed on UAPs, reinforcing speculation that the administration had access to U.S. government knowledge about extraterrestrial technology.
NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy denies alien origin of 3I/ATLAS comet, stating 'No aliens'
December 31 dips to 11%1%
NASA leadership publicly dismissed the theory that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was extraterrestrial, which may have contributed to market volatility as the debate over alien technology intensified.
Breakthrough Listen Observes 3I/ATLAS, Finds No Technosignatures
December 31 drops to 10%11%
Using the Green Bank Telescope, astronomers from Breakthrough Listen observed the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS on December 19, 2025, and recorded no radio emissions indicating extraterrestrial technology.
Astronomers find no technosignatures from interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 11%1%
On December 19, 2025, astronomers using the Green Bank Telescope observed 3I/ATLAS at its closest approach to Earth and found no signs of extraterrestrial technology. NASA officials reiterated the comet's natural origin, dampening speculation and causing a slight market decline.
NASA Observes 3I/ATLAS Closest to Earth, Finds No Technosignatures
NASA's observations using the Green Bank Telescope recorded no technosignatures in the form of radio emissions from 3I/ATLAS as it came closest to Earth. This further undermines claims of alien technology presence.
Astronomers find no signs of extraterrestrial technology in 3I/ATLAS observations
December 31 dips to 7%4%
Using the Green Bank Telescope, astronomers recorded no technosignatures from 3I/ATLAS during its closest approach to Earth, reinforcing the scientific consensus that it is a natural comet and reducing market confidence.
Astronomers find no evidence of alien technology in interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 drops to 12%9%
A study by Breakthrough Listen using the Green Bank Telescope found no technosignatures from comet 3I/ATLAS, and NASA officials publicly denied alien connections, tempering market enthusiasm for imminent disclosure.
President Trump signs executive order on American space superiority
The executive order aimed at enhancing US leadership in space, including lunar and deep-space efforts, indirectly fueled speculation about extraterrestrial life disclosure, coinciding with a market price peak.
Trump signs FY‑2026 NDAA with UAP‑briefing mandate
December 31 rises to 14%3%
President Trump signed the FY‑2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which contains new provisions ordering the Pentagon’s All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP incidents and review over‑classification. The legislative jump was widely reported and pushed the market higher, as traders saw a concrete mechanism that could force a public UFO disclosure before year‑end.
President Trump Signs National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
The President signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, which included provisions related to UAPs and space defense, potentially signaling increased government attention to UAPs and extraterrestrial technology.
NASA Rejects Alien Theory for Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS
December 31 drops to 7%5%
NASA officials, including Acting Administrator Sean Duffy and Associate Administrator Nicola Fox, rejected the idea that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS was extraterrestrial technology, stating there were no signs of alien life.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new briefings on UAP incidents since 2004
December 31 rises to 13%3%
The 2026 NDAA required fresh briefings to Congress on UAP encounters and a review of classification practices, increasing legislative pressure for transparency. This legislative action reinforced market speculation about potential disclosures, supporting price stability around 10-13%.
Universal Pictures Drops Teaser Trailer for Steven Spielberg's UFO Movie
June 30 rises to 12%1%
Universal Pictures released the first official teaser trailer for Steven Spielberg's new UFO movie 'Disclosure Day,' which explores what happens when humanity learns extraterrestrial life is real, fueling speculation about a potential 2026 disclosure.
Congress includes UAP reporting provisions in 2026 defense policy bill
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandated the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide Congress with detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, increasing official transparency on the subject. This legislative action supported market optimism about potential disclosures, sustaining elevated prices around 11-13%.
Congress mandates UAP-related briefings in defense policy bill
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring detailed reporting on UAP intercepts, increasing expectations of official disclosure and impacting market prices.
Fiscal Year 2026 NDAA mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts since 2004
December 31 rises to 14%2%
The National Defense Authorization Act for 2026 required the Pentagon to provide fresh briefings to Congress on UAP incidents and review classification practices, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and disclosure.
Congress mandates expanded Pentagon briefings on UAPs in NDAA
December 31 rises to 11%1%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to provide detailed briefings on UAP intercepts, signaling increased transparency efforts. This legislative action supported market optimism, maintaining prices near 11%.
Congressional hearing on UAPs includes testimony from military personnel and UFO experts
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A special hearing in the US House of Representatives featured testimony from former Air Force and Navy personnel and UFO community figures, reinforcing the seriousness of the UAP issue and briefly boosting market confidence in potential disclosure.
Congress mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts in 2026 NDAA
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act included provisions requiring the Pentagon's All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office to brief Congress on UAP intercepts, increasing transparency pressure and market optimism about disclosure.
UFO whistleblower David Grusch says Trump briefed on UAPs
Whistleblower David Grusch stated in an interview that President Trump had been 'fully briefed' on UAPs, including crashed spacecraft, multiple alien races, and their intentions.
Top US defense officials to brief key lawmakers on UAPs
December 31 rises to 12%2%
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed the 'Gang of Eight' lawmakers on UAP matters, signaling increased transparency efforts and legislative momentum, supporting market optimism.
NASA issues request for information on space technology for Moon and Mars missions
NASA's solicitation for advanced space technologies related to lunar and Martian exploration highlighted ongoing government focus on space science but did not include any confirmation of extraterrestrial life. This contributed to steady market prices without significant jumps.
Fiscal Year 2026 NDAA mandates new briefings on UAP encounters since 2004
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 required the Pentagon's anomaly office to brief Congress on UAP incidents and review classification practices, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and fueling market expectations for disclosure by year-end 2026.
Trump UFO disclosure predicted to come in just DAYS after mysterious 'insider' tip
A Daily Mail article reported a mysterious insider tip suggesting Trump would disclose UFO information by December 31, 2025, with Polymarket odds rising to 98% 'Yes'.
Top US Security Officials to Brief 'Gang of Eight' Lawmakers on UAPs
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio planned a briefing for key lawmakers on UAPs, signaling increased government transparency efforts and sustaining market interest.
Top national security officials to brief key lawmakers on UAPs
December 31 rises to 11%2%
On December 9, 2025, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were scheduled to brief the 'Gang of Eight' lawmakers on UAP matters, indicating high-level government engagement and transparency efforts that influenced market sentiment.
U.S. defense chiefs to brief ‘Gang of Eight’ lawmakers on UAPs, Reuters says
December 31 dips to 10%3%
Reuters reported that senior defense officials were briefing the “Gang of Eight” on UAP matters, confirming that top‑level officials were preparing a formal disclosure to Congress. The news coincided with a sharp decline from the 13 % peak to 9 % on 2025‑12‑02 and a modest rise to 10 % on 2025‑12‑05, reflecting market reactions to the possibility of a near‑term official statement.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump was fully briefed on aliens
December 31 drops to 12%9%
Whistleblower David Grusch claimed President Trump was fully briefed on secret UFO programs and alien life, intensifying public debate but lacking official confirmation, contributing to market volatility and a subsequent price drop.
Republican lawmaker Anna Paulina Luna demands release of additional UAP videos
Rep. Luna’s public demand for the Pentagon to release 46 more UAP videos added pressure on the agency to be more transparent, reinforcing market expectations of a possible official confirmation before year‑end and contributing to the price jump on Dec 8.
‘The Age of Disclosure’ documentary shines light on UAP cover‑up
December 31 dips to 12%2%
Fox News ran a piece spotlighting the new documentary “The Age of Disclosure,” which featured 34 former officials alleging a decades‑long UAP cover‑up. The media push added momentum to the market, contributing to a brief dip from 14 % to 12 % as the hype peaked and then settled.
UFO whistleblower claims Trump briefed on alien life and hybrid species
December 31 plunges to 13%85%
Whistleblower David Grusch alleged that President Trump was 'fully briefed' on UFOs, alien life, and crossbreeding with humans, adding credibility to the disclosure speculation.
UFO Whistleblower David Grusch Says Trump Is Fully Read-In on UAPs
December 31 rises to 13%1%
UFO whistleblower David Grusch stated in an interview that President Trump was fully briefed on UAPs, which intensified speculation about potential disclosures in 2026 and contributed to the market's peak at 13%.
Whistleblower David Grusch claims Trump fully briefed on secret UFO programs
December 31 rises to 13%3%
David Grusch, a former Air Force intelligence officer and prominent UFO whistleblower, stated that President Trump has been fully briefed on secret UFO programs and extraterrestrial information. This statement fueled market optimism about imminent official confirmation.
NASA and scientists report new clues in search for extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 14%4%
NASA's ongoing missions and advanced telescopes provided new data on exoplanet atmospheres and Martian geology, increasing optimism about finding extraterrestrial life. This scientific progress contributed to a market price peak at 21% for the December 31 outcome.
Polymarket Bets Spike on Talk of Trump Releasing UFO Files
December 31 rises to 13%3%
Speculation about imminent UFO disclosures and President Trump's possible declassification of files caused a price spike to 21% on December 7, reflecting heightened market optimism about official confirmation.
Polymarket odds surge as UFO disclosure betting explodes
December 31 surges to 98%92%
A tweet declaring a 12% chance of alien confirmation in 2025 sparked massive betting activity on Polymarket, with odds for Trump declassifying UFO files surging from 6% to 98% within days.
Trump administration releases additional UFO files with retro Pentagon website
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
On December 7, 2025, the Pentagon released 162 new UFO-related files on a retro-themed website, including State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. The administration emphasized transparency, but the files did not confirm alien technology. This release caused a peak in market price to 21%, reflecting increased public interest and speculation.
President Trump Signs Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority
December 31 jumps to 16%6%
President Trump signed an executive order to enhance US leadership in space, accelerating lunar and deep-space efforts. This bolstered market confidence in US space initiatives but did not directly confirm extraterrestrial life, causing a sharp price rise to 16% followed by a quick correction.
Polymarket betting surges on Trump UFO disclosure by December 31, 2025
December 31 jumps to 14%7%
A sudden spike in wagers on Polymarket suggested growing market confidence that the Trump administration would officially disclose UFO information by the end of 2025, reflecting heightened public and investor anticipation.
NASA publicly rejects alien conspiracy theories about interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 dips to 9%4%
NASA officials, including Nicola Fox, denied any technosignatures or extraterrestrial technology related to 3I/ATLAS, dampening market enthusiasm and causing a price drop from 13% to 9%. This official dismissal reduced expectations of imminent confirmation.
UFO Documentary and New Evidence Highlight Government UFO Investigations
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
An explosive documentary and new scientific findings about UFOs and drone sightings near nuclear sites increased public and expert attention on extraterrestrial phenomena, boosting market prices to a peak of 21%.
Expert predicts Trump will release non-blurry UFO photos in 2026
December 31 jumps to 21%14%
An expert forecasted that 2026 would see the release of clear UFO photos and potentially the end of a decades-long cover-up, fueling market speculation about official disclosure under President Trump.
Polymarket reports spike in bets on UFO disclosure by Trump
December 31 jumps to 12%5%
Polymarket tweeted about a 12% chance of official alien confirmation in 2025, reflecting rising public and market interest following media coverage and whistleblower activity, causing a price spike.
NASA Perseverance Rover Analyzes Martian Rock Cores
December 31 jumps to 21%9%
NASA's Perseverance rover continued analyzing Martian rock cores with advanced tools, contributing to ongoing extraterrestrial life research.
Polymarket odds skyrocket as Trump UFO disclosure bet shifts from 6% to 98% 'Yes' within days
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A sudden surge in betting activity on Polymarket, with over $7 million in wagers, indicated a dramatic increase in confidence that the Trump administration would declassify UFO files by the end of 2025.
Scientists publish findings on historic UFO sightings near nuclear sites
December 31 jumps to 21%10%
On December 7, 2025, research published highlighted transient star-like flashes in decades-old photos near nuclear testing sites, renewing scientific interest in unidentified aerial phenomena. This contributed to a peak in market prices as it suggested potential evidence relevant to extraterrestrial life.
Trump administration releases new UFO files on unidentified anomalous phenomena
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
President Trump's administration began releasing declassified Pentagon files on UFOs and UAPs, including 162 documents such as State Department cables, FBI records, and NASA transcripts. This marked a significant transparency push on a topic of public interest, potentially influencing market sentiment.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings and review of classified material
December 31 jumps to 21%10%
The 2026 NDAA required new briefings on unidentified aerial phenomena encounters and a review of potentially over-classified information, intensifying legislative pressure for disclosure and pushing prices to a peak of 21%.
UMA proposal claims AARO document fulfills UFO de‑classification criteria, causing Polymarket “Yes” surge
December 31 surges to 80%75%
A governance proposal on the UMA oracle argued that a September AARO de‑classification paper satisfied the market’s “UFO de‑classification” condition. The proposal triggered massive buying of the “Yes” outcome, sending the price from 5 % on Dec 6 to over 80 % by Dec 8. This spike is the biggest swing recorded in the price history (‑7 % → +5 % points).
Polymarket odds skyrocket to 98% for Trump to declassify UFO files by Dec 31
A Polymarket article reported that odds for the Trump Administration declassifying UFO files had surged to 98%, following a December 7 post that revealed over $7 million in bets and a shift from 6% to 98% 'Yes' odds.
Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.
Polymarket betting spikes as Daily Mail says Trump may declassify UFO files within days
December 31 jumps to 21%9%
The Daily Mail ran a piece linking a Polymarket betting surge to statements by Joe Rogan and former Air Force officer David Grusch that President Trump was “fully briefed” on alien material. The story pushed the Yes probability up to a 21 % high on 2025‑12‑07, the market’s biggest one‑day swing.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public urged to draw own conclusions
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
On December 6, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified aerial phenomena. This release, promoted by the Trump administration as a move toward transparency, sparked increased public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life, causing a rise in the market price for the December 31 outcome from 7% to 13%.
Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The Pentagon made public a new set of UAP videos and reports, including historic sightings, intensifying speculation that the agency might soon acknowledge extraterrestrial technology, which pushed the market’s Yes price for the December‑31 outcome upward.
Federal judge blocks Pentagon policy limiting reporters’ access
December 31 rises to 12%2%
A district court ruled that the Trump administration’s new Pentagon credential rules violated First Amendment rights, reducing optimism that the agency would openly acknowledge UFO findings and causing the market to retreat.
Researchers call for serious academic study of UFOs amid ongoing Pentagon investigations
Following congressional hearings and Pentagon reports acknowledging unidentified aerial phenomena anomalies but no definitive extraterrestrial evidence, researchers urged academia to intensify UFO studies, sustaining public and market interest without confirmation.
Congress mandates new briefings on UAP encounters in 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required fresh briefings on UAP incidents dating back to 2004 and a review of classified materials, signaling increased legislative pressure for transparency and sustaining market interest.
CIA issues ambiguous response on interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 rises to 10%1%
In response to a FOIA request, the CIA neither confirmed nor denied records on the mysterious interstellar visitor 3I/ATLAS, contradicting NASA's natural comet explanation. This fueled speculation about government concealment, causing a price rise to 10-12%.
UFO Declassified Documents Released by Defense Department
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Defense Department released declassified documents about government UFO sightings, increasing public and market interest in extraterrestrial phenomena.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files without confirming alien existence
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of UFO files, including old State Department cables and NASA transcripts, but emphasized that the information was unresolved and left interpretation to the public. This release sparked public interest but did not include any official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary rise in market probability.
Pentagon releases 162 declassified UFO files spanning 1942 to 2025
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Department of War published a large collection of declassified files on unidentified anomalous phenomena, including videos and documents, as part of a transparency effort ordered by President Trump. This unprecedented release increased public and market speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial life.
National Defense Authorization Act mandates new UAP briefings and data review
December 31 rises to 11%2%
The fiscal year 2026 NDAA required the Pentagon's anomaly office to brief Congress on UAP incidents since 2004 and review classification practices, signaling legislative momentum toward transparency and supporting market price increases to 11-13%.
President Trump teases major UFO document dump on Truth Social
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would soon release a large trove of UFO records, reviving public and congressional pressure for official disclosure and raising expectations that the government might confirm alien existence before Dec 31.
Government releases new UFO videos via AARO agency
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The US government agency AARO released new UFO videos, fueling public and market speculation about official disclosures and increasing confidence in the possibility of confirmation by year-end.
US House Committee holds hearing on UAPs and extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 17%7%
A congressional hearing on UAPs increased public and market attention on the possibility of official disclosure, contributing to price volatility and a rise to 17% on December 7.
House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Hearing on U.S. Space Policy
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A hearing focused on planetary exploration and extraterrestrial life, reinforcing U.S. interest in space and potential for future discoveries.
Trump UFO disclosure odds hit over $6M bets suggest insider knowledge
December 31 rises to 12%1%
Polymarket betting activity surged, with over $6 million in bets placed on Trump demanding government disclosure of alien information, shifting odds from 6% to 98% 'Yes'.
NASA James Webb Telescope Detects Exoplanet Atmospheric Compositions
December 31 rises to 10%1%
NASA reported the James Webb Space Telescope detecting atmospheric compositions of exoplanets dozens of light-years away, advancing the search for extraterrestrial life.
NASA reaffirms 3I/ATLAS is a natural comet
December 31 dips to 9%4%
Following the CIA's ambiguous statement, NASA officials publicly stated that 3I/ATLAS is definitively a comet of natural origin, countering alien spacecraft theories. This official stance tempered market enthusiasm, causing a price drop from 13% to 9%.
Obama clarifies no evidence of alien contact during presidency
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Former President Obama stated publicly that he saw no evidence during his presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with Earth, tempering public expectations and causing a slight market pullback from 13% to 12%.
Poll Shows Nearly Half of Americans Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
December 31 dips to 9%2%
A YouGov poll indicated that 47% of Americans think aliens have probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, reflecting growing public belief and interest that supported market confidence in a possible official confirmation.
Trump administration begins releasing new Pentagon UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%3%
On November 29, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump emphasized transparency, encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions. This event increased market optimism slightly, reflected in the price rising from 7% to 10%.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked renewed public curiosity and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the documents did not confirm the existence of alien technology, leading to a temporary price increase in the market for US confirmation of aliens.
CIA Issues 'Glomar Response' to 3I/ATLAS FOIA Request
December 31 jumps to 21%6%
In response to a November 2025 Freedom of Information Act request, the CIA stated it could neither deny nor confirm the existence or nonexistence of records regarding the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, adding ambiguity about government knowledge of extraterrestrial life.
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files revealing unusual sightings
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files detailing numerous sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, sparking public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This release, encouraged by former President Trump, increased market optimism about a possible official confirmation by December 31, 2026, causing the price for that outcome to rise from 7% to 11%.
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files, Trump encourages public to draw conclusions
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 28, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, emphasizing transparency and inviting the public to interpret the information themselves. This event caused a significant price increase in the market, reflecting heightened speculation about possible confirmation of alien existence.
Defense Department Releases Declassified UFO Sightings Documents
December 31 rises to 12%1%
The Defense Department released a trove of declassified documents about government UFO sightings, fueling public and market interest in extraterrestrial phenomena.
Federal Register: Presidential document identifies 20+ science and technology challenges for national importance
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A Presidential Document by the Executive Office of the President announced the identification of at least 20 science and technology challenges of national importance, including potential extraterrestrial life research, signaling renewed government focus on space exploration.
CIA issues ambiguous response on interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 rises to 11%4%
In late November 2025, the CIA responded to a FOIA request with a 'neither confirm nor deny' statement regarding records on the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, fueling speculation about government secrecy on extraterrestrial matters. This uncertainty caused a market price increase for the December 31 outcome from 7% to 11%.
Pentagon begins releasing UFO files amid Trump’s push for transparency
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The Pentagon started releasing a batch of UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, as part of an effort encouraged by President Trump to increase transparency on the subject. This event heightened public and market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a notable price increase in the market for confirmation by December 31.
The Age of Disclosure documentary released, featuring 34 U.S. government and military officials alleging decades-long UFO cover-up
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The documentary's release intensified speculation that the U.S. government has been concealing evidence of extraterrestrial life, pressuring the Trump administration to declassify UFO information.
Reports suggest Trump administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Reports emerged that President Trump may announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefings, increasing market speculation about imminent official confirmation.
President Trump orders Pentagon to release files on UFOs and extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 10%3%
President Trump announced on his social media platform that he would direct the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena, and UFOs. This announcement increased market optimism about a possible confirmation, raising the price from 7% to 10%.
Reports of US administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Media reports suggested that the US administration was considering an official announcement about extraterrestrial life, increasing market speculation and briefly boosting prices.
Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%3%
The Defense Department posted a new website with previously unseen UFO documents, and President Trump highlighted the release on Truth Social, prompting traders to anticipate an official confirmation of alien existence.
Whistleblower Grusch says Trump will be briefed on extraterrestrials
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A whistleblower, former Air Force officer David Grusch, publicly told Pravda‑USA that the administration was preparing a briefing on “basic facts” about extraterrestrials. The story amplified media attention on a possible imminent disclosure, lifting the market from 7 % to 13 % in the two‑day span from Nov 25 to Nov 29.
Reports emerge that US administration prepares to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
News surfaced that the US administration was preparing to acknowledge extraterrestrial life, sparking speculation and a brief price increase in the market. This report raised hopes of imminent official confirmation but lacked concrete evidence, leading to cautious market reactions.
Release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary alleging decades-long government UFO cover-up
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The documentary featured 34 current and former US government, military, and intelligence personnel claiming a multi-decade concealment operation regarding extraterrestrial evidence. This heightened public interest and speculation about imminent disclosures, causing a market price increase from 7% to 13% for the December 31 outcome.
Reports emerge of US administration preparing to announce extraterrestrial life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
News surfaced that President Trump and his team were considering how to handle information about extraterrestrial life, sparking speculation and a market price increase from 7% to 11% for the December 31 outcome.
U.S. Administration Preparing to Announce and Acknowledge Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
A report claimed the Trump administration was preparing to announce extraterrestrial life after receiving briefing on 'basic facts' about humanity's place in the universe, sparking market speculation.
U.S. Administration Announces Preparation to Announce Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 15%2%
A report claimed the Trump administration was preparing to announce the existence of extraterrestrials after receiving briefing on humanity's place in the universe, sparking market speculation.
US Administration Preparing to Announce and Acknowledge Extraterrestrial Life
December 31 rises to 11%4%
Reports emerged that the US administration was preparing to announce and acknowledge extraterrestrial life, sparking market optimism and a price increase from 7% to 11% on November 28. This news suggested a potential official confirmation, significantly impacting market expectations for the December 31 outcome.
Reports emerge that President Trump may announce extraterrestrial life soon
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
News surfaced that President Trump was fully briefed on UFOs and that his administration was considering how to handle information about extraterrestrial life. This speculation caused a market price increase for the December 31 outcome from 7% to 13%.
YouGov Poll Shows 47% of Americans Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
December 31 rises to 12%1%
A YouGov poll revealed that 47% of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, a significant increase from 36% in 2012, influencing public perception of extraterrestrial life.
CIA Issues 'Glomar Response' to FOIA Request on 3I/ATLAS Records
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The CIA refused to confirm or deny holding any records about the interstellar object, treating the information as sensitive enough to be classified, which fueled conspiracy theories about government concealment of extraterrestrial knowledge.
Israeli Uri Geller claims Trump and Netanyahu know aliens exist
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
Uri Geller publicly stated that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are aware of extraterrestrial beings, citing his personal experience seeing alien bodies. This claim fueled speculation and increased market interest in official confirmation of aliens.
Trump may be on brink of publicly acknowledging extraterrestrial life
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
A RadarOnline article reported speculation that President Trump might disclose alien secrets, citing his previous comments about extraterrestrial life and the 'Age of Disclosure' documentary featuring 34 U.S. officials claiming alien cover-ups.
NASA Rejects Alien Conspiracy Theory on 3I/ATLAS Object
NASA's associate administrator Nicola Fox rejected the alien theory at a November 2025 news conference, stating no technosignatures were found, which may have tempered market enthusiasm for extraterrestrial life confirmation.
SETI@Home finalizes analysis of Arecibo data
The crowd-sourced SETI@Home project completed its final analysis of 100 radio signals from the collapsed Arecibo Observatory, finding no confirmed alien transmissions but concluding the dataset will improve future extraterrestrial life searches.
CIA issues ambiguous response on interstellar object 3I/ATLAS
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
In response to a November 2025 FOIA request, the CIA stated it could neither confirm nor deny records about 3I/ATLAS, fueling speculation about possible extraterrestrial technology and briefly increasing market optimism for a US confirmation of aliens.
Release of 'The Age of Disclosure' documentary alleging government cover-up of extraterrestrial evidence
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The documentary featured 34 current and former US government, military, and intelligence officials claiming decades-long concealment of alien-related information. This increased public and political pressure for disclosure, causing a notable price rise in the market.
Americans Increasingly Believe Aliens Have Visited Earth
December 31 rises to 11%4%
A YouGov poll showed 47% of Americans believe aliens have definitely or probably visited Earth, up from 36% in 2012, fueling public and market speculation.
CIA Issues 'Glomar Response' to FOIA Request on 3I/ATLAS
The CIA responded to a November 2025 Freedom of Information Act request with a 'Glomar response,' neither confirming nor denying any records about 3I/ATLAS. This ambiguous stance reignited conspiracy theories about government concealment of extraterrestrial knowledge.
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