Global seismicity produces an average of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week according to long-term USGS catalogs, establishing zero events as the most probable single-week outcome and supporting the current 66.5% market-implied odds. With no confirmed M6.5+ events recorded globally since early June and no active aftershock sequences or regional clustering elevating short-term rates, trader consensus favors a quiet period through June 7. The distribution of outcomes reflects Poisson variability around this baseline, tempered by ongoing USGS real-time monitoring that could shift probabilities if new data reveal foreshock activity or model updates indicate heightened risk in subduction zones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 1 al 7 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 1 al 7 de junio?
0 66%
1 29%
2 6%
3 <1%
$10,218 Vol.
$10,218 Vol.
8 jun 2026
0
66%
1
29%
2
6%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 66%
1 29%
2 6%
3 <1%
$10,218 Vol.
$10,218 Vol.
8 jun 2026
0
$5,245 Vol.
66%
1
$415 Vol.
29%
2
$535 Vol.
6%
3
$1,481 Vol.
1%
4
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
5
$564 Vol.
<1%
>5
$899 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity produces an average of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week according to long-term USGS catalogs, establishing zero events as the most probable single-week outcome and supporting the current 66.5% market-implied odds. With no confirmed M6.5+ events recorded globally since early June and no active aftershock sequences or regional clustering elevating short-term rates, trader consensus favors a quiet period through June 7. The distribution of outcomes reflects Poisson variability around this baseline, tempered by ongoing USGS real-time monitoring that could shift probabilities if new data reveal foreshock activity or model updates indicate heightened risk in subduction zones.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volumen
$10,218Fecha de finalización
8 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity produces an average of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week according to long-term USGS catalogs, establishing zero events as the most probable single-week outcome and supporting the current 66.5% market-implied odds. With no confirmed M6.5+ events recorded globally since early June and no active aftershock sequences or regional clustering elevating short-term rates, trader consensus favors a quiet period through June 7. The distribution of outcomes reflects Poisson variability around this baseline, tempered by ongoing USGS real-time monitoring that could shift probabilities if new data reveal foreshock activity or model updates indicate heightened risk in subduction zones.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$10,218Fecha de finalización
8 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity produces an average of one to two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes per week according to long-term USGS catalogs, establishing zero events as the most probable single-week outcome and supporting the current 66.5% market-implied odds. With no confirmed M6.5+ events recorded globally since early June and no active aftershock sequences or regional clustering elevating short-term rates, trader consensus favors a quiet period through June 7. The distribution of outcomes reflects Poisson variability around this baseline, tempered by ongoing USGS real-time monitoring that could shift probabilities if new data reveal foreshock activity or model updates indicate heightened risk in subduction zones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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