Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 80% likelihood of emergence during June–August 2026 according to WMO and NOAA updates, represent the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies. This transition from neutral or La Niña influences follows recent monthly global surface temperatures near 1.18–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, including February 2026 readings. Model consensus on moderate El Niño strength introduces uncertainty in exact June intensification, while the underlying long-term warming trend and early-month observational data keep lower bins competitive. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus updates on sea-surface temperatures and ENSO indices through mid-June will likely refine these probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 34%
<1.10ºC 30%
1.10–1.14ºC 23%
1.20–1.24ºC 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
30%
1.10–1.14ºC
23%
1.15–1.19ºC
34%
1.20–1.24ºC
32%
1.25–1.29ºC
16%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 34%
<1.10ºC 30%
1.10–1.14ºC 23%
1.20–1.24ºC 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$62 Vol.
30%
1.10–1.14ºC
$37 Vol.
23%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37 Vol.
34%
1.20–1.24ºC
$221 Vol.
32%
1.25–1.29ºC
$187 Vol.
16%
>1.29ºC
$389 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 80% likelihood of emergence during June–August 2026 according to WMO and NOAA updates, represent the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies. This transition from neutral or La Niña influences follows recent monthly global surface temperatures near 1.18–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, including February 2026 readings. Model consensus on moderate El Niño strength introduces uncertainty in exact June intensification, while the underlying long-term warming trend and early-month observational data keep lower bins competitive. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus updates on sea-surface temperatures and ENSO indices through mid-June will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$934Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 80% likelihood of emergence during June–August 2026 according to WMO and NOAA updates, represent the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies. This transition from neutral or La Niña influences follows recent monthly global surface temperatures near 1.18–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, including February 2026 readings. Model consensus on moderate El Niño strength introduces uncertainty in exact June intensification, while the underlying long-term warming trend and early-month observational data keep lower bins competitive. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus updates on sea-surface temperatures and ENSO indices through mid-June will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$934Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 80% likelihood of emergence during June–August 2026 according to WMO and NOAA updates, represent the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies. This transition from neutral or La Niña influences follows recent monthly global surface temperatures near 1.18–1.19°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, including February 2026 readings. Model consensus on moderate El Niño strength introduces uncertainty in exact June intensification, while the underlying long-term warming trend and early-month observational data keep lower bins competitive. Upcoming NOAA and Copernicus updates on sea-surface temperatures and ENSO indices through mid-June will likely refine these probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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