Polymarket traders price a scant 0.8% implied probability for 40+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day through April 30, reflecting trader consensus on sustained US-Iran blockades that have confined commercial arrivals to 3-5 Iran-linked vessels daily—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100—per maritime trackers ahead of IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global seaborne oil trade, embeds a steep geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, with Brent crude at $110 per barrel and VLCC charter rates surpassing $400,000/day amid supply fears. Resolution hinges on April 30 IMF figures; stalled ceasefire talks in Islamabad signal prolonged uncertainty for oil volatility and rerouting costs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día a finales de abril?
¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día a finales de abril?
$1,457,764 Vol.
30 abr 2026
40+
1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$1,457,764 Vol.
40+
$284,998 Vol.
1%
60+
$310,225 Vol.
<1%
80+
$410,987 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Polymarket traders price a scant 0.8% implied probability for 40+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day through April 30, reflecting trader consensus on sustained US-Iran blockades that have confined commercial arrivals to 3-5 Iran-linked vessels daily—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100—per maritime trackers ahead of IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global seaborne oil trade, embeds a steep geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, with Brent crude at $110 per barrel and VLCC charter rates surpassing $400,000/day amid supply fears. Resolution hinges on April 30 IMF figures; stalled ceasefire talks in Islamabad signal prolonged uncertainty for oil volatility and rerouting costs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,457,764Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Polymarket traders price a scant 0.8% implied probability for 40+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day through April 30, reflecting trader consensus on sustained US-Iran blockades that have confined commercial arrivals to 3-5 Iran-linked vessels daily—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100—per maritime trackers ahead of IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global seaborne oil trade, embeds a steep geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, with Brent crude at $110 per barrel and VLCC charter rates surpassing $400,000/day amid supply fears. Resolution hinges on April 30 IMF figures; stalled ceasefire talks in Islamabad signal prolonged uncertainty for oil volatility and rerouting costs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,457,764Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a scant 0.8% implied probability for 40+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day through April 30, reflecting trader consensus on sustained US-Iran blockades that have confined commercial arrivals to 3-5 Iran-linked vessels daily—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100—per maritime trackers ahead of IMF Portwatch data. This chokepoint, vital for 20% of global seaborne oil trade, embeds a steep geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, with Brent crude at $110 per barrel and VLCC charter rates surpassing $400,000/day amid supply fears. Resolution hinges on April 30 IMF figures; stalled ceasefire talks in Islamabad signal prolonged uncertainty for oil volatility and rerouting costs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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