Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in a prolonged U.S.-Iran standoff enforcing a naval blockade and Iranian "tollbooth" controls at the Strait of Hormuz, capping daily commercial transits at 6-9 vessels—versus pre-conflict averages of 138—primarily Iran-linked or humanitarian-exempt ships, as confirmed by April 29 IMF Portwatch-equivalent trackers. This suppression, unchanged since March despite ceasefires, embeds a 15-20% global oil supply risk premium, propelling Brent crude above $112 per barrel on April 30 and VLCC charter rates to $350,000-plus per day on Middle East Gulf routes, while war-risk insurance premiums hover at 1% of hull value, deterring neutral-flag traffic. Resolution hinges on final April 30 transit data, with U.S.-Iran talks via Oman as a potential month-end catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día a finales de abril?
¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día a finales de abril?
$1,457,764 Vol.
30 abr 2026
40+
<1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$1,457,764 Vol.
40+
$284,998 Vol.
<1%
60+
$310,225 Vol.
<1%
80+
$410,987 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in a prolonged U.S.-Iran standoff enforcing a naval blockade and Iranian "tollbooth" controls at the Strait of Hormuz, capping daily commercial transits at 6-9 vessels—versus pre-conflict averages of 138—primarily Iran-linked or humanitarian-exempt ships, as confirmed by April 29 IMF Portwatch-equivalent trackers. This suppression, unchanged since March despite ceasefires, embeds a 15-20% global oil supply risk premium, propelling Brent crude above $112 per barrel on April 30 and VLCC charter rates to $350,000-plus per day on Middle East Gulf routes, while war-risk insurance premiums hover at 1% of hull value, deterring neutral-flag traffic. Resolution hinges on final April 30 transit data, with U.S.-Iran talks via Oman as a potential month-end catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,457,764Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in a prolonged U.S.-Iran standoff enforcing a naval blockade and Iranian "tollbooth" controls at the Strait of Hormuz, capping daily commercial transits at 6-9 vessels—versus pre-conflict averages of 138—primarily Iran-linked or humanitarian-exempt ships, as confirmed by April 29 IMF Portwatch-equivalent trackers. This suppression, unchanged since March despite ceasefires, embeds a 15-20% global oil supply risk premium, propelling Brent crude above $112 per barrel on April 30 and VLCC charter rates to $350,000-plus per day on Middle East Gulf routes, while war-risk insurance premiums hover at 1% of hull value, deterring neutral-flag traffic. Resolution hinges on final April 30 transit data, with U.S.-Iran talks via Oman as a potential month-end catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,457,764Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in a prolonged U.S.-Iran standoff enforcing a naval blockade and Iranian "tollbooth" controls at the Strait of Hormuz, capping daily commercial transits at 6-9 vessels—versus pre-conflict averages of 138—primarily Iran-linked or humanitarian-exempt ships, as confirmed by April 29 IMF Portwatch-equivalent trackers. This suppression, unchanged since March despite ceasefires, embeds a 15-20% global oil supply risk premium, propelling Brent crude above $112 per barrel on April 30 and VLCC charter rates to $350,000-plus per day on Middle East Gulf routes, while war-risk insurance premiums hover at 1% of hull value, deterring neutral-flag traffic. Resolution hinges on final April 30 transit data, with U.S.-Iran talks via Oman as a potential month-end catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes