Trader consensus reflects a 90.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi assuming de facto head-of-state powers in Iran by December 31, 2026, anchored by the Islamic Republic's continuity under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite unverified reports of his severe injuries from recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on regime infrastructure. Exiled opposition figure Pahlavi's April 23 Berlin press conference—urging IRGC rank-and-file defections and rejecting negotiations—gained visibility amid lingering fallout from January's suppressed protests, which killed thousands but failed to trigger collapse. Absent verified mass defections, uprisings, or external intervention like invasion, structural barriers including IRGC loyalty sustain regime control, though escalation risks or leadership vacuums could shift odds rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Liderará Reza Pahlavi a Irán en 2026?
¿Liderará Reza Pahlavi a Irán en 2026?
Sí
$1,145,729 Vol.
$1,145,729 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$1,145,729 Vol.
$1,145,729 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 90.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi assuming de facto head-of-state powers in Iran by December 31, 2026, anchored by the Islamic Republic's continuity under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite unverified reports of his severe injuries from recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on regime infrastructure. Exiled opposition figure Pahlavi's April 23 Berlin press conference—urging IRGC rank-and-file defections and rejecting negotiations—gained visibility amid lingering fallout from January's suppressed protests, which killed thousands but failed to trigger collapse. Absent verified mass defections, uprisings, or external intervention like invasion, structural barriers including IRGC loyalty sustain regime control, though escalation risks or leadership vacuums could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volumen
$1,145,729Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects a 90.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi assuming de facto head-of-state powers in Iran by December 31, 2026, anchored by the Islamic Republic's continuity under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite unverified reports of his severe injuries from recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on regime infrastructure. Exiled opposition figure Pahlavi's April 23 Berlin press conference—urging IRGC rank-and-file defections and rejecting negotiations—gained visibility amid lingering fallout from January's suppressed protests, which killed thousands but failed to trigger collapse. Absent verified mass defections, uprisings, or external intervention like invasion, structural barriers including IRGC loyalty sustain regime control, though escalation risks or leadership vacuums could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,145,729Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 90.3% implied probability against Reza Pahlavi assuming de facto head-of-state powers in Iran by December 31, 2026, anchored by the Islamic Republic's continuity under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei despite unverified reports of his severe injuries from recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on regime infrastructure. Exiled opposition figure Pahlavi's April 23 Berlin press conference—urging IRGC rank-and-file defections and rejecting negotiations—gained visibility amid lingering fallout from January's suppressed protests, which killed thousands but failed to trigger collapse. Absent verified mass defections, uprisings, or external intervention like invasion, structural barriers including IRGC loyalty sustain regime control, though escalation risks or leadership vacuums could shift odds rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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