This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective from April 16, 2026, and recently extended for three weeks amid violations, has spotlighted demands for Hezbollah's full disarmament as a prerequisite for permanent peace. Israeli strikes continue on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with IDF leaders confirming expanded operations, while Hezbollah has launched retaliatory rockets, undermining the truce. Netanyahu reiterated that any deal requires Hezbollah disarmament from a position of strength, building on Lebanon's 2025 directive tasking its army to enforce a state arms monopoly by year-end—a goal unmet. Traders eye ongoing Washington talks, UNIFIL monitoring, and escalation risks that could delay or derail disarmament before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective from April 16, 2026, and recently extended for three weeks amid violations, has spotlighted demands for Hezbollah's full disarmament as a prerequisite for permanent peace. Israeli strikes continue on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with IDF leaders confirming expanded operations, while Hezbollah has launched retaliatory rockets, undermining the truce. Netanyahu reiterated that any deal requires Hezbollah disarmament from a position of strength, building on Lebanon's 2025 directive tasking its army to enforce a state arms monopoly by year-end—a goal unmet. Traders eye ongoing Washington talks, UNIFIL monitoring, and escalation risks that could delay or derail disarmament before market resolution dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 28 2026
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for disarmament
Apr 27 2026
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling no change in Hezbollah’s official policy.
Apr 27 2026
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s
April 30 dips to 0%3%
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s admission that Hezbollah’s missiles and drones remain a major threat
Apr 26 2026
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 25 2026
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
April 30 rises to 4%4%
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 18 2026
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to violations, reinforcing the group’s refusal to disarm
Apr 15 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 1%1%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons and accusing the government of weakening Lebanon’s defense
Apr 13 2026
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah,
December 31 drops to 27%10%
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah, reinforcing the group’s rejection of disarmament.
Apr 13 2026
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 0%1%
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
Apr 9 2026
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing
April 30 plunges to 1%15%
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing Israeli strikes and diplomatic talks
Apr 9 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces direct peace talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah;
December 31 jumps to 37%7%
Hezbollah rejects these talks as futile and a tool of Israel, with Qassem reiterating refusal to disarm.
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 2 2026
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
Mar 7 2026
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political
December 31 plunges to 40%18%
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political tensions and Hezbollah’s resistance to disarmament.
Mar 2 2026
Hezbollah escalates conflict by firing rockets and drones at Israel, breaking the ceasefire;
December 31 surges to 58%24%
Lebanese Cabinet proscribes Hezbollah’s military activities, but Qassem rejects disarmament and vows to fight to the end.
Feb 25 2026
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and signaling Hezbollah’s continued defiance.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about
December 31 dips to 34%3%
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about Hezbollah’s willingness to disarm.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 16 2026
Lebanese government announces a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament;
December 31 drops to 37%14%
Hezbollah’s Qassem calls this a “grave mistake” serving Israeli aggression and rejects any monopoly on arms by the state.
Feb 3 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing
December 31 drops to 48%5%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing disarmament as stripping Lebanon of its strength, reinforcing resistance against Israel and the US.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective from April 16, 2026, and recently extended for three weeks amid violations, has spotlighted demands for Hezbollah's full disarmament as a prerequisite for permanent peace. Israeli strikes continue on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with IDF leaders confirming expanded operations, while Hezbollah has launched retaliatory rockets, undermining the truce. Netanyahu reiterated that any deal requires Hezbollah disarmament from a position of strength, building on Lebanon's 2025 directive tasking its army to enforce a state arms monopoly by year-end—a goal unmet. Traders eye ongoing Washington talks, UNIFIL monitoring, and escalation risks that could delay or derail disarmament before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective from April 16, 2026, and recently extended for three weeks amid violations, has spotlighted demands for Hezbollah's full disarmament as a prerequisite for permanent peace. Israeli strikes continue on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with IDF leaders confirming expanded operations, while Hezbollah has launched retaliatory rockets, undermining the truce. Netanyahu reiterated that any deal requires Hezbollah disarmament from a position of strength, building on Lebanon's 2025 directive tasking its army to enforce a state arms monopoly by year-end—a goal unmet. Traders eye ongoing Washington talks, UNIFIL monitoring, and escalation risks that could delay or derail disarmament before market resolution dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 28 2026
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for disarmament
Apr 27 2026
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling no change in Hezbollah’s official policy.
Apr 27 2026
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s
April 30 dips to 0%3%
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s admission that Hezbollah’s missiles and drones remain a major threat
Apr 26 2026
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 25 2026
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
April 30 rises to 4%4%
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 18 2026
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to violations, reinforcing the group’s refusal to disarm
Apr 15 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 1%1%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons and accusing the government of weakening Lebanon’s defense
Apr 13 2026
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah,
December 31 drops to 27%10%
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah, reinforcing the group’s rejection of disarmament.
Apr 13 2026
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 0%1%
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
Apr 9 2026
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing
April 30 plunges to 1%15%
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing Israeli strikes and diplomatic talks
Apr 9 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces direct peace talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah;
December 31 jumps to 37%7%
Hezbollah rejects these talks as futile and a tool of Israel, with Qassem reiterating refusal to disarm.
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 2 2026
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
Mar 7 2026
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political
December 31 plunges to 40%18%
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political tensions and Hezbollah’s resistance to disarmament.
Mar 2 2026
Hezbollah escalates conflict by firing rockets and drones at Israel, breaking the ceasefire;
December 31 surges to 58%24%
Lebanese Cabinet proscribes Hezbollah’s military activities, but Qassem rejects disarmament and vows to fight to the end.
Feb 25 2026
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and signaling Hezbollah’s continued defiance.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about
December 31 dips to 34%3%
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about Hezbollah’s willingness to disarm.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 16 2026
Lebanese government announces a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament;
December 31 drops to 37%14%
Hezbollah’s Qassem calls this a “grave mistake” serving Israeli aggression and rejects any monopoly on arms by the state.
Feb 3 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing
December 31 drops to 48%5%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing disarmament as stripping Lebanon of its strength, reinforcing resistance against Israel and the US.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 22%, seguido de "30 de abril" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 22¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" ha generado $1 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 22%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 22% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de abril" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $1 million operados en “¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 22¢ para "31 de diciembre" en el mercado "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 22% de que "31 de diciembre" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 22¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 78¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 202 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes