NOAA’s May 2026 outlook projects a below-normal Atlantic season with only 1–3 major hurricanes expected amid suppressed conditions linked to lingering El Niño influences and elevated wind shear. Colorado State University similarly forecasts just two major hurricanes and assigns below-average odds of any major landfall along the U.S. coast. Category 5 landfalls remain statistically rare even in active seasons; only four have occurred in the continental United States since reliable records began. With the season barely underway and model consensus favoring limited intensification opportunities, traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no Category 5 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance in mid-June will provide the next key test of these expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$136,408 Vol.
$136,408 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$136,408 Vol.
$136,408 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s May 2026 outlook projects a below-normal Atlantic season with only 1–3 major hurricanes expected amid suppressed conditions linked to lingering El Niño influences and elevated wind shear. Colorado State University similarly forecasts just two major hurricanes and assigns below-average odds of any major landfall along the U.S. coast. Category 5 landfalls remain statistically rare even in active seasons; only four have occurred in the continental United States since reliable records began. With the season barely underway and model consensus favoring limited intensification opportunities, traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no Category 5 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance in mid-June will provide the next key test of these expectations.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$136,408Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s May 2026 outlook projects a below-normal Atlantic season with only 1–3 major hurricanes expected amid suppressed conditions linked to lingering El Niño influences and elevated wind shear. Colorado State University similarly forecasts just two major hurricanes and assigns below-average odds of any major landfall along the U.S. coast. Category 5 landfalls remain statistically rare even in active seasons; only four have occurred in the continental United States since reliable records began. With the season barely underway and model consensus favoring limited intensification opportunities, traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no Category 5 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance in mid-June will provide the next key test of these expectations.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$136,939Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s May 2026 outlook projects a below-normal Atlantic season with only 1–3 major hurricanes expected amid suppressed conditions linked to lingering El Niño influences and elevated wind shear. Colorado State University similarly forecasts just two major hurricanes and assigns below-average odds of any major landfall along the U.S. coast. Category 5 landfalls remain statistically rare even in active seasons; only four have occurred in the continental United States since reliable records began. With the season barely underway and model consensus favoring limited intensification opportunities, traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no Category 5 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance in mid-June will provide the next key test of these expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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