Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 99.1% implied probability for the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, where Claude Opus 4.7 holds the #2 spot behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5—launched April 23 with superior coding and logic benchmarks. Anthropic's model solidified this position through consistent high-Elo performance in reasoning and agentic tasks amid a flurry of April releases from Google (Gemini 3.1), xAI (Grok 4.1), and DeepSeek (V4), yet none displaced Claude in recent crowd-voted battles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard stability over the past week. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard shift from surging votes on a rival like Gemini 2.5 Pro before the noon ET snapshot or an unannounced update from Meta or Mistral, though such moves remain low-probability given release timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 99.2%
Google 1.1%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$235,104 Vol.
$235,104 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
99%
1%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic 99.2%
Google 1.1%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$235,104 Vol.
$235,104 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
$47,568 Vol.
99%
$21,097 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$34,338 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$8,238 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$9,064 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$9,521 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$8,623 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$10,315 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$9,014 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$8,592 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$13,219 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$10,663 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$10,382 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,981 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$28,763 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 99.1% implied probability for the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, where Claude Opus 4.7 holds the #2 spot behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5—launched April 23 with superior coding and logic benchmarks. Anthropic's model solidified this position through consistent high-Elo performance in reasoning and agentic tasks amid a flurry of April releases from Google (Gemini 3.1), xAI (Grok 4.1), and DeepSeek (V4), yet none displaced Claude in recent crowd-voted battles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard stability over the past week. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard shift from surging votes on a rival like Gemini 2.5 Pro before the noon ET snapshot or an unannounced update from Meta or Mistral, though such moves remain low-probability given release timelines.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volumen
$235,104Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 99.1% implied probability for the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, where Claude Opus 4.7 holds the #2 spot behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5—launched April 23 with superior coding and logic benchmarks. Anthropic's model solidified this position through consistent high-Elo performance in reasoning and agentic tasks amid a flurry of April releases from Google (Gemini 3.1), xAI (Grok 4.1), and DeepSeek (V4), yet none displaced Claude in recent crowd-voted battles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard stability over the past week. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard shift from surging votes on a rival like Gemini 2.5 Pro before the noon ET snapshot or an unannounced update from Meta or Mistral, though such moves remain low-probability given release timelines.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$235,104Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 99.1% implied probability for the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, where Claude Opus 4.7 holds the #2 spot behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5—launched April 23 with superior coding and logic benchmarks. Anthropic's model solidified this position through consistent high-Elo performance in reasoning and agentic tasks amid a flurry of April releases from Google (Gemini 3.1), xAI (Grok 4.1), and DeepSeek (V4), yet none displaced Claude in recent crowd-voted battles. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard stability over the past week. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard shift from surging votes on a rival like Gemini 2.5 Pro before the noon ET snapshot or an unannounced update from Meta or Mistral, though such moves remain low-probability given release timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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