Anthropic’s Claude models currently occupy multiple top positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 that traders expect to hold through late June. The recent May release of Claude Opus 4.8 strengthened Anthropic’s edge in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following benchmarks, creating a durable lead over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series. With roughly two weeks until resolution and no imminent competing releases, the market-implied 84.5% probability on Anthropic reflects the likelihood that one of its models lands in the #3 slot under style-controlled Arena rankings. Google sits at a distant 8.5% as a potential swing outcome if Gemini gains ground in the final voting period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 85%
Google 9%
OpenAI 1.9%
Meta <1%
$53,426 Vol.
$53,426 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
85%
9%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 85%
Google 9%
OpenAI 1.9%
Meta <1%
$53,426 Vol.
$53,426 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$19,724 Vol.
85%
$6,762 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$4,542 Vol.
2%
Meta
$4,058 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$2,489 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,089 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,608 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,100 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,012 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,394 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,214 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,894 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,573 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$662 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude models currently occupy multiple top positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 that traders expect to hold through late June. The recent May release of Claude Opus 4.8 strengthened Anthropic’s edge in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following benchmarks, creating a durable lead over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series. With roughly two weeks until resolution and no imminent competing releases, the market-implied 84.5% probability on Anthropic reflects the likelihood that one of its models lands in the #3 slot under style-controlled Arena rankings. Google sits at a distant 8.5% as a potential swing outcome if Gemini gains ground in the final voting period.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$53,426Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude models currently occupy multiple top positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 that traders expect to hold through late June. The recent May release of Claude Opus 4.8 strengthened Anthropic’s edge in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following benchmarks, creating a durable lead over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series. With roughly two weeks until resolution and no imminent competing releases, the market-implied 84.5% probability on Anthropic reflects the likelihood that one of its models lands in the #3 slot under style-controlled Arena rankings. Google sits at a distant 8.5% as a potential swing outcome if Gemini gains ground in the final voting period.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$53,426Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude models currently occupy multiple top positions on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 that traders expect to hold through late June. The recent May release of Claude Opus 4.8 strengthened Anthropic’s edge in reasoning, coding, and instruction-following benchmarks, creating a durable lead over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series. With roughly two weeks until resolution and no imminent competing releases, the market-implied 84.5% probability on Anthropic reflects the likelihood that one of its models lands in the #3 slot under style-controlled Arena rankings. Google sits at a distant 8.5% as a potential swing outcome if Gemini gains ground in the final voting period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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