Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic's Claude at 68% implied probability to claim the #3 large language model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which vaulted it to the top with superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Close contenders like OpenAI's GPT-5.x (44%), Moonshot's Kimi (42%), Meta's Llama (42%), and xAI's Grok (41.5%) reflect heated competition, fueled by recent surges such as Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 hitting #3 in Code Arena on April 10 and Mistral Medium 3.5's April 29 release. Traders anticipate frontier model iterations from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek potentially securing top-two positions, settling Claude in third amid rapid benchmark shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 68%
xAI 45%
OpenAI 42%
Mistral 41%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
68%
xAI
45%
OpenAI
42%
Mistral
41%
41%
DeepSeek
40%
Microsoft
39%
Z.ai
39%
Baidu
38%
ByteDance
37%
Meituan
37%
Meta
33%
Alibaba
38%
Moonshot
37%
Amazon
32%
Anthropic 68%
xAI 45%
OpenAI 42%
Mistral 41%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$54 Vol.
68%
xAI
$54 Vol.
45%
OpenAI
$54 Vol.
42%
Mistral
$54 Vol.
41%
$56 Vol.
41%
DeepSeek
$54 Vol.
40%
Microsoft
$54 Vol.
39%
Z.ai
$54 Vol.
39%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
38%
ByteDance
$54 Vol.
37%
Meituan
$54 Vol.
37%
Meta
$54 Vol.
33%
Alibaba
$54 Vol.
38%
Moonshot
$54 Vol.
37%
Amazon
$54 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic's Claude at 68% implied probability to claim the #3 large language model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which vaulted it to the top with superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Close contenders like OpenAI's GPT-5.x (44%), Moonshot's Kimi (42%), Meta's Llama (42%), and xAI's Grok (41.5%) reflect heated competition, fueled by recent surges such as Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 hitting #3 in Code Arena on April 10 and Mistral Medium 3.5's April 29 release. Traders anticipate frontier model iterations from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek potentially securing top-two positions, settling Claude in third amid rapid benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$805Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic's Claude at 68% implied probability to claim the #3 large language model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which vaulted it to the top with superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Close contenders like OpenAI's GPT-5.x (44%), Moonshot's Kimi (42%), Meta's Llama (42%), and xAI's Grok (41.5%) reflect heated competition, fueled by recent surges such as Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 hitting #3 in Code Arena on April 10 and Mistral Medium 3.5's April 29 release. Traders anticipate frontier model iterations from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek potentially securing top-two positions, settling Claude in third amid rapid benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$805Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic's Claude at 68% implied probability to claim the #3 large language model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which vaulted it to the top with superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Close contenders like OpenAI's GPT-5.x (44%), Moonshot's Kimi (42%), Meta's Llama (42%), and xAI's Grok (41.5%) reflect heated competition, fueled by recent surges such as Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 hitting #3 in Code Arena on April 10 and Mistral Medium 3.5's April 29 release. Traders anticipate frontier model iterations from OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek potentially securing top-two positions, settling Claude in third amid rapid benchmark shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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