Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of April 30, 2026, reflecting Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 at #1 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at #2. This positioning stems from late-April releases where OpenAI reclaimed the top spot with superior reasoning benchmarks, Anthropic iterated on Opus for sustained high-Elo performance, and Google's preview optimizations in Gemini 3.1 maintained a clear edge over challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen 3.6 amid two dozen new large language models. Realistic challenges include last-minute LMSYS battle data elevating xAI's Grok 4.3 or a Mistral update, though leaderboard volatility has subsided near month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGoogle 96.5%
Anthropic 3.4%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,073,808 Vol.
$1,073,808 Vol.
30 abr 2026
97%
Anthropic
3%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 96.5%
Anthropic 3.4%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,073,808 Vol.
$1,073,808 Vol.
30 abr 2026
$152,707 Vol.
97%
Anthropic
$336,564 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$15,246 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$26,383 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$104,795 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$99,659 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$41,993 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$29,772 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,541 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,614 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$34,831 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,567 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$22,189 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$110,437 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of April 30, 2026, reflecting Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 at #1 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at #2. This positioning stems from late-April releases where OpenAI reclaimed the top spot with superior reasoning benchmarks, Anthropic iterated on Opus for sustained high-Elo performance, and Google's preview optimizations in Gemini 3.1 maintained a clear edge over challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen 3.6 amid two dozen new large language models. Realistic challenges include last-minute LMSYS battle data elevating xAI's Grok 4.3 or a Mistral update, though leaderboard volatility has subsided near month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volumen
$1,073,808Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of April 30, 2026, reflecting Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 at #1 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at #2. This positioning stems from late-April releases where OpenAI reclaimed the top spot with superior reasoning benchmarks, Anthropic iterated on Opus for sustained high-Elo performance, and Google's preview optimizations in Gemini 3.1 maintained a clear edge over challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen 3.6 amid two dozen new large language models. Realistic challenges include last-minute LMSYS battle data elevating xAI's Grok 4.3 or a Mistral update, though leaderboard volatility has subsided near month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,073,808Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of April 30, 2026, reflecting Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 at #1 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 at #2. This positioning stems from late-April releases where OpenAI reclaimed the top spot with superior reasoning benchmarks, Anthropic iterated on Opus for sustained high-Elo performance, and Google's preview optimizations in Gemini 3.1 maintained a clear edge over challengers like DeepSeek V4 and Qwen 3.6 amid two dozen new large language models. Realistic challenges include last-minute LMSYS battle data elevating xAI's Grok 4.3 or a Mistral update, though leaderboard volatility has subsided near month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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