Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released in late April 2026, has propelled the company to a commanding 64.1% implied probability of owning the top large language model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June end, dominating benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (82%), LM Arena (1504 Elo), and agentic GDPval-AA—areas critical for real-world coding and reasoning tasks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's rapid iteration and coding-focused training, outpacing rivals despite Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (26.5% odds) tying in some intelligence indexes via superior knowledge benchmarks and vast TPU compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch last week failed to close the gap, dropping to 6.5%, while xAI lags at 2.4%. Watch for pre-June releases at Google I/O or Anthropic's Q2 Claude 5 preview, which could shift the closely watched frontier AI race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 64.1%
Título del ítem del grupo 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,034,213 Vol.
$5,034,213 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
64%
Título del ítem del grupo
27%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
2%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 64.1%
Título del ítem del grupo 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,034,213 Vol.
$5,034,213 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$771,080 Vol.
64%
Título del ítem del grupo
$466,365 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$274,001 Vol.
7%
xAI
$978,769 Vol.
2%
Meta
$89,253 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$454,882 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$262,690 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$434,842 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$85,231 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$92,498 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$314,976 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310,678 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$111,331 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$291,675 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$97,713 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released in late April 2026, has propelled the company to a commanding 64.1% implied probability of owning the top large language model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June end, dominating benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (82%), LM Arena (1504 Elo), and agentic GDPval-AA—areas critical for real-world coding and reasoning tasks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's rapid iteration and coding-focused training, outpacing rivals despite Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (26.5% odds) tying in some intelligence indexes via superior knowledge benchmarks and vast TPU compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch last week failed to close the gap, dropping to 6.5%, while xAI lags at 2.4%. Watch for pre-June releases at Google I/O or Anthropic's Q2 Claude 5 preview, which could shift the closely watched frontier AI race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$5,034,213Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released in late April 2026, has propelled the company to a commanding 64.1% implied probability of owning the top large language model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June end, dominating benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (82%), LM Arena (1504 Elo), and agentic GDPval-AA—areas critical for real-world coding and reasoning tasks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's rapid iteration and coding-focused training, outpacing rivals despite Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (26.5% odds) tying in some intelligence indexes via superior knowledge benchmarks and vast TPU compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch last week failed to close the gap, dropping to 6.5%, while xAI lags at 2.4%. Watch for pre-June releases at Google I/O or Anthropic's Q2 Claude 5 preview, which could shift the closely watched frontier AI race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$5,034,213Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released in late April 2026, has propelled the company to a commanding 64.1% implied probability of owning the top large language model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June end, dominating benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (82%), LM Arena (1504 Elo), and agentic GDPval-AA—areas critical for real-world coding and reasoning tasks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic's rapid iteration and coding-focused training, outpacing rivals despite Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (26.5% odds) tying in some intelligence indexes via superior knowledge benchmarks and vast TPU compute. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch last week failed to close the gap, dropping to 6.5%, while xAI lags at 2.4%. Watch for pre-June releases at Google I/O or Anthropic's Q2 Claude 5 preview, which could shift the closely watched frontier AI race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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