Anthropic’s recent model releases explain the overwhelming 88% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 launched in late May and quickly topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 61 while leading SWE-bench Pro and agentic coding benchmarks. The even stronger Claude Fable 5 followed on June 9, establishing new state-of-the-art results on long-horizon reasoning and complex tasks with broad availability. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive in specific domains such as multimodal work or raw reasoning scores but trail on overall leaderboards and lack comparable June updates. With resolution only two weeks away and no announced counter-releases from rivals, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s current benchmark dominance and momentum in frontier large language model capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 88.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 7%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$14,838,755 Vol.
$14,838,755 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
88%
Título del ítem del grupo
7%
OpenAI
4%
xAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 88.5%
Título del ítem del grupo 7%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$14,838,755 Vol.
$14,838,755 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$1,727,222 Vol.
88%
Título del ítem del grupo
$1,200,582 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$1,117,640 Vol.
4%
xAI
$1,757,391 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$866,479 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$994,014 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,099,007 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$924,752 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$669,638 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$615,550 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$778,105 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$989,048 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$818,497 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$752,970 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$528,249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent model releases explain the overwhelming 88% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 launched in late May and quickly topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 61 while leading SWE-bench Pro and agentic coding benchmarks. The even stronger Claude Fable 5 followed on June 9, establishing new state-of-the-art results on long-horizon reasoning and complex tasks with broad availability. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive in specific domains such as multimodal work or raw reasoning scores but trail on overall leaderboards and lack comparable June updates. With resolution only two weeks away and no announced counter-releases from rivals, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s current benchmark dominance and momentum in frontier large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$14,838,755Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent model releases explain the overwhelming 88% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 launched in late May and quickly topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 61 while leading SWE-bench Pro and agentic coding benchmarks. The even stronger Claude Fable 5 followed on June 9, establishing new state-of-the-art results on long-horizon reasoning and complex tasks with broad availability. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive in specific domains such as multimodal work or raw reasoning scores but trail on overall leaderboards and lack comparable June updates. With resolution only two weeks away and no announced counter-releases from rivals, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s current benchmark dominance and momentum in frontier large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$14,838,755Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent model releases explain the overwhelming 88% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 launched in late May and quickly topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 61 while leading SWE-bench Pro and agentic coding benchmarks. The even stronger Claude Fable 5 followed on June 9, establishing new state-of-the-art results on long-horizon reasoning and complex tasks with broad availability. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive in specific domains such as multimodal work or raw reasoning scores but trail on overall leaderboards and lack comparable June updates. With resolution only two weeks away and no announced counter-releases from rivals, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s current benchmark dominance and momentum in frontier large language model capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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