Anthropic's dominant position at 88.3% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 4.8's early June 2026 release, which immediately topped multiple independent leaderboards including Artificial Analysis and composite quality indices with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks ahead of GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants. Traders view the two-week window to end-of-June resolution as too narrow for rivals to deploy a competitive new large language model capable of shifting benchmarks. OpenAI and Google sit at 5.1% and 7.5% respectively on the strength of incremental updates and specialized strengths in certain evaluations, yet lack current overall leadership. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessment of demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation, underscoring Anthropic's edge in the latest verified frontier model performance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 88.3%
Título del ítem del grupo 8%
OpenAI 5.1%
xAI <1%
$13,919,290 Vol.
$13,919,290 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
88%
Título del ítem del grupo
8%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 88.3%
Título del ítem del grupo 8%
OpenAI 5.1%
xAI <1%
$13,919,290 Vol.
$13,919,290 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$1,726,452 Vol.
88%
Título del ítem del grupo
$1,200,302 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$1,116,075 Vol.
5%
xAI
$1,756,730 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$866,181 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$992,371 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,099,007 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$924,752 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$669,638 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$615,550 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$778,105 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$989,032 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$818,497 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$752,970 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$528,249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's dominant position at 88.3% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 4.8's early June 2026 release, which immediately topped multiple independent leaderboards including Artificial Analysis and composite quality indices with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks ahead of GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants. Traders view the two-week window to end-of-June resolution as too narrow for rivals to deploy a competitive new large language model capable of shifting benchmarks. OpenAI and Google sit at 5.1% and 7.5% respectively on the strength of incremental updates and specialized strengths in certain evaluations, yet lack current overall leadership. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessment of demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation, underscoring Anthropic's edge in the latest verified frontier model performance.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$13,919,290Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's dominant position at 88.3% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 4.8's early June 2026 release, which immediately topped multiple independent leaderboards including Artificial Analysis and composite quality indices with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks ahead of GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants. Traders view the two-week window to end-of-June resolution as too narrow for rivals to deploy a competitive new large language model capable of shifting benchmarks. OpenAI and Google sit at 5.1% and 7.5% respectively on the strength of incremental updates and specialized strengths in certain evaluations, yet lack current overall leadership. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessment of demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation, underscoring Anthropic's edge in the latest verified frontier model performance.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$13,919,290Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's dominant position at 88.3% implied probability stems primarily from Claude Opus 4.8's early June 2026 release, which immediately topped multiple independent leaderboards including Artificial Analysis and composite quality indices with leading scores in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks ahead of GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants. Traders view the two-week window to end-of-June resolution as too narrow for rivals to deploy a competitive new large language model capable of shifting benchmarks. OpenAI and Google sit at 5.1% and 7.5% respectively on the strength of incremental updates and specialized strengths in certain evaluations, yet lack current overall leadership. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessment of demonstrated capabilities rather than speculation, underscoring Anthropic's edge in the latest verified frontier model performance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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