Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement from Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven primarily by Musk's April 7 amendment redirecting all damages—potentially $130-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than himself, prioritizing structural remedies like unwinding the for-profit conversion and removing Altman from the nonprofit board. The high-stakes trial, underway since April 27 in Oakland federal court, featured Musk's testimony highlighting OpenAI's alleged abandonment of its open-source, nonprofit founding mission amid AI safety concerns and xAI's competitive rise, but cross-examination exposed legal hurdles including statute-of-limitations defenses. Early proceedings shifted sentiment bearish, with similar markets dropping post-day one. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-verdict settlement awarding Musk personally or a jury verdict overriding the amendment, though mid-May resolution looms amid fierce defenses from OpenAI and Microsoft.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$24,479 Vol.
$24,479 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$24,479 Vol.
$24,479 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement from Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven primarily by Musk's April 7 amendment redirecting all damages—potentially $130-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than himself, prioritizing structural remedies like unwinding the for-profit conversion and removing Altman from the nonprofit board. The high-stakes trial, underway since April 27 in Oakland federal court, featured Musk's testimony highlighting OpenAI's alleged abandonment of its open-source, nonprofit founding mission amid AI safety concerns and xAI's competitive rise, but cross-examination exposed legal hurdles including statute-of-limitations defenses. Early proceedings shifted sentiment bearish, with similar markets dropping post-day one. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-verdict settlement awarding Musk personally or a jury verdict overriding the amendment, though mid-May resolution looms amid fierce defenses from OpenAI and Microsoft.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$24,479Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement from Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven primarily by Musk's April 7 amendment redirecting all damages—potentially $130-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than himself, prioritizing structural remedies like unwinding the for-profit conversion and removing Altman from the nonprofit board. The high-stakes trial, underway since April 27 in Oakland federal court, featured Musk's testimony highlighting OpenAI's alleged abandonment of its open-source, nonprofit founding mission amid AI safety concerns and xAI's competitive rise, but cross-examination exposed legal hurdles including statute-of-limitations defenses. Early proceedings shifted sentiment bearish, with similar markets dropping post-day one. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-verdict settlement awarding Musk personally or a jury verdict overriding the amendment, though mid-May resolution looms amid fierce defenses from OpenAI and Microsoft.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$24,479Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement from Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven primarily by Musk's April 7 amendment redirecting all damages—potentially $130-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm rather than himself, prioritizing structural remedies like unwinding the for-profit conversion and removing Altman from the nonprofit board. The high-stakes trial, underway since April 27 in Oakland federal court, featured Musk's testimony highlighting OpenAI's alleged abandonment of its open-source, nonprofit founding mission amid AI safety concerns and xAI's competitive rise, but cross-examination exposed legal hurdles including statute-of-limitations defenses. Early proceedings shifted sentiment bearish, with similar markets dropping post-day one. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-verdict settlement awarding Musk personally or a jury verdict overriding the amendment, though mid-May resolution looms amid fierce defenses from OpenAI and Microsoft.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes