Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at a 99% implied probability as the best AI model on May 1, driven by its dominant Arena Score on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control off—a crowdsourced Elo ranking from blind human pairwise comparisons emphasizing raw capabilities in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February 2026 release of this thinking-enabled large language model variant has sustained its top position through recent optimizations, outpacing GPT-5.4 high, Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, and even newer Claude Opus 4.7 thinking by wide margins despite April capacity hiccups and nerf complaints in non-thinking modes. With resolution imminent via today's 12:00 PM ET snapshot, challengers like a surprise leaderboard refresh from fresh votes or unannounced rival benchmarks remain slim possibilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.3%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 3.6%
Other 1.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$29,673 Vol.
$29,673 Vol.
1 may 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
95%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
4%
Other
1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
gpt-5.4-high
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 95.3%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 3.6%
Other 1.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$29,673 Vol.
$29,673 Vol.
1 may 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$12,684 Vol.
95%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$9,732 Vol.
4%
Other
$1,820 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,260 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
$875 Vol.
<1%
muse-spark
$823 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$769 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$839 Vol.
<1%
gpt-5.4-high
$872 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at a 99% implied probability as the best AI model on May 1, driven by its dominant Arena Score on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control off—a crowdsourced Elo ranking from blind human pairwise comparisons emphasizing raw capabilities in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February 2026 release of this thinking-enabled large language model variant has sustained its top position through recent optimizations, outpacing GPT-5.4 high, Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, and even newer Claude Opus 4.7 thinking by wide margins despite April capacity hiccups and nerf complaints in non-thinking modes. With resolution imminent via today's 12:00 PM ET snapshot, challengers like a surprise leaderboard refresh from fresh votes or unannounced rival benchmarks remain slim possibilities.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$29,673Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at a 99% implied probability as the best AI model on May 1, driven by its dominant Arena Score on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control off—a crowdsourced Elo ranking from blind human pairwise comparisons emphasizing raw capabilities in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February 2026 release of this thinking-enabled large language model variant has sustained its top position through recent optimizations, outpacing GPT-5.4 high, Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, and even newer Claude Opus 4.7 thinking by wide margins despite April capacity hiccups and nerf complaints in non-thinking modes. With resolution imminent via today's 12:00 PM ET snapshot, challengers like a surprise leaderboard refresh from fresh votes or unannounced rival benchmarks remain slim possibilities.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$29,673Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) at a 99% implied probability as the best AI model on May 1, driven by its dominant Arena Score on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control off—a crowdsourced Elo ranking from blind human pairwise comparisons emphasizing raw capabilities in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February 2026 release of this thinking-enabled large language model variant has sustained its top position through recent optimizations, outpacing GPT-5.4 high, Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, and even newer Claude Opus 4.7 thinking by wide margins despite April capacity hiccups and nerf complaints in non-thinking modes. With resolution imminent via today's 12:00 PM ET snapshot, challengers like a surprise leaderboard refresh from fresh votes or unannounced rival benchmarks remain slim possibilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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